After a slow start as a Celtic, Kemba has come on strong in his last two, averaging a 32/6/5 in spite of losing a considerable mount of his minutes due to a blowout of the Knicks. Well, Walker is running it back against the Knicks here, and the Celtics are 10.5 point favorites at home. The blowout is obviously a concern here, but he looked so dominant in his 30 minutes against their matador back-court that I'm less concerned than I might normally be. The Knicks have unsurprisingly been one of the league's worst defensive teams this season, and Kemba seems like a rock solid cash game inclusion on these prices.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 52.27 DK - 54.52
Luka was barreling his way to a first three games of the season MVP award before a serious disappearing act against the Nuggets, but I think we learned more in the first three games of the season than we did in his last contest. The Nuggets defend well from every position, and while the Lakers have a great defensive efficiency to start the season, I'm not buying them keeping up that pace all season. It's important to remember that we've only played four games of the season so far, and that strength of schedule is a big factor for team based stats. They've faced lousy Grizzlies and Hornets offenses, a Jazz team that's the second lowest scoring team in the West so far, and then they got handled by the Clippers. The 216.5 total here is basically average for the slate, and I'm not scared off the Mavs here.
Also considered: Malcolm Brogdon and Russell Westbrook in good match-ups.
I know Harden has gotten a lot of hate to start the season, but hopefully his 59 point barrage against the Wizards have quelled some fears. Like we've said approximately a thousand times, you'd never even notice a shooting stretch like Harden had to start the season if it happened in January, so why were people adjusting their projections based on a few bad games? Harden shot 56% on an incredible 32 shots, while also getting to the line 18 times against the Wiz. He's shooting 95.5% from the line on 16.5 FTA a game. He's got one of the highest floors around. Do you think I'm scared of playing him against a back court of Irving and Levert when they have to contend with Westbrook also? Because I'm not.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.07 DK - 37.66
Much has been made of Kyrie's arrival in Brooklyn, and for good reason, but behind the scenes Levert is sort of making a little leap here, right? He's added 4.4 shots per game while increasing his efficiency up to a 45.5% field goal percentage, and he's shooting better from three as well thanks to Irving's offensive gravity. And in case you didn't notice it in the Wizards game, the Rockets are a candidate to allow All-Star game level totals on a nightly basis. I still think Levert is cheap compared to where he'll wind up when the season is over, and am an enthusiastic buyer at these prices.
Also considered: Danny Green, if you need the savings. He's been bad in his last two games, be he's so obviously a huge part of what little the Lakers have after AD and LeBron than I think he has a higher floor than it looks so far.
With the usual caveat that you can't pay up at every single position every night, Giannis is a great cash game play if you can fit him in. With Brogdon off the floor last season, Giannis had a 37% usage rate. This year he's shooting less in spite of less capable scorers around him. He's also shooting 55% from the free throw line. A sign of things to come, or fun with small sample sizes? I absolutely say the latter. Reports from this summer were that Giannis worked his ass off to improve upon his MVP season, and I'm not pouring dirt on a guy who's capable of a month straight of 60 fantasy point performances. He's not exceedingly cheap on FanDuel, but on DraftKings the price might be too good to ignore even if Orlando is playing slowly with tough defense this year.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.04 DK - 38.08
We finally saw Hayward get unleashed against the Bucks, and it was a pleasure. The Celtics ran much of the offense through Hayward, and it was a vintage Jazz-Hayward performance, as he put together not only 21 points but 10 boards and 7 assists to go with it. A year removed from a truly devastating injury (and out from under Kyrie), Hayward might finally be back to the guy the Celtics and we DFS owners thought we had. If that's the case, the price is criminally low (especially on DraftKings), and Hayward could be one of the biggest candidates to be 15% cheaper than he will be by the end of the season.
Also considered: Joe Harris. It's been a slow start to the year, but he's now officially really cheap, and the underlying skills only rate to continue to improve.
Kristaps is doing exactly what Knicks fans were horrified he'd do: putting up huge numbers and looking like a unicorn. He's averaging 22 and 8 with 2.5 blocks a game, and he and Luka look like they have a sort of intuitive chemistry that's hard to teach. He's averaging 5x points per dollar on these prices in spite of a brutal game against Denver, and things should snap back to reality against the Lakers here. Davis actually presents somewhat of a difficult match-up for him, but I still think the price is ultimately too good to ignore here.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 35.29 DK - 33.15
I may have spoke too soon when I called Hayward the most likely guy who's 15% too cheap right now. Holmes is doing for Sacramento what DFS players have known he can do all alone - destroying things on a per-minute basis. With 44 fantasy points a game in his last two, he's looking criminally cheap regardless of the match-up. The match-up is a tester here, too - Utah is very tough on opposing bigs - but sometimes the value so great that the match-up is nearly irrelevant. I believe this to be one such case. The potential fly in the ointment here could be foul trouble, but it hasn't been a big issue this season, and I'm a believer in all formats.
Also considered: Jayson Tatum, and really all of the Celtics.
Cleveland is 2-2 to start the year, and they can attribute almost all of that success to the bizarre explosion of Tristan Thompson. In his age 28 season the Cavs' big man has doubled his shots while improving his efficiency back to his LeBron era numbers. He's averaging 20/12 this year instead of the 9 and 9 he's averaged for his career. With Myles Turner sidelined, the cats are away for Thompson down low, and he should be ready to play.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 56.35 DK - 56.36
Center is pretty rough tonight, and while it would be sad to get away from good big money plays elsewhere, it might wind up being necessary if you don't trust Thompson's seemingly random emergence. Drummond has been as advertised this year - eviscerating poor interiors for huge games. With a 30/20 and a 20/20 game already under his belt, the only thing that has stood in his way is the fact that he's averaging more than four fouls a game. He shouldn't be at any greater risk than usual to foul out against Chicago, though, and given that Vegas likes this as a close game, he should be out there for his full compliment of 35+ minutes.
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