FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 10/30/19

Wednesdays were made for basketball with a huge NBA slate. The Warriors will look to continue the momentum from a win over the Pelicans. We'll see if the Kings stick with actual rotations. We get an interesting game between the 0-3 Pacers and 1-2 Nets. All this and more with cash picks for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Point Guard

Stephen Curry FD - $9600 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.53 DK - 50.25
The Warriors got off their opening season schneid against the Pelicans on Monday, winning the game rather easily. It was game they kind of needed in order to turn around what had been a disaster opening to the season. Curry was vintage Steph going for 26 points and 10 assists on 9-17 shooting (4-10 from three) in just 31 minutes. He was a chalk play on both sites on Monday and I suspect that’s the case here again on Wednesday against the Suns. The latter has actually played very good defense to start the season and rank among the best in terms of defensive efficiency. That being said, the Warriors, as an entire group are still priced because of their problematic first two games. This is still a spot to buy on Golden State even on a big slate.

De'Aaron Fox FD - $8100 DK - $7800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.08 DK - 43.04
Speaking of disaster starts to the season, the Kings are 0-4 out of the gate and have looked, at times, like a complete mess. Granted, they’ve had a tough run against the Nuggets, Jazz, Blazers and Suns (who might not be terrible) but this is still a team that should be keeping games closer than they have been. Part of the problem is Luke Walton’s early rotations that haven’t seemed to emphasize starter minutes. That turned around some last game against the Nuggets when Fox played 36. He had 20 points and nine assists for his second-best fantasy game of the season. Now Sac-Town will get their easiest matchup yet against a bottom-feeding Charlotte team ranked second to last in defensive efficiency. If the minutes stick then this is a smash spot for guys like Fox who is priced down because of the aforementioned early season issues.

Other thoughts Mike Conley (FD $6300 DK $6200) has been terrible to start the year for the Jazz. He’s missing a ton of shots, deferring a the wrong times and just generally looks like a mess. But the price is simply too cheap right now even in a bad matchup against the Clippers.

I really like Ricky Rubio (FD $6500 DK $6200) in this matchup against the Warriors. The Suns have been feisty on the season, beating the Clippers and hanging late with the Jazz.

Shooting Guard

D'Angelo Russell FD - $8400 DK - $7900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.73 DK - 38.73
Jordan Poole FD - $3700 DK - $3200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.03 DK - 19.14
All the Warriors, shall we? Much of what I said about Steph applies to these guys as well, with a couple of caveats. After Curry, Russell is averaging the second-most field goal attempts at 15 per game, including 6.7 three point attempts. He’s not Klay Thompson for sure, but is a good spot up shooter and can take guys off the dribble in a way Klay didn’t. He’s a little expensive on DraftKings, but I suspect we see some higher ownership again on FanDuel again. From a season-over-season perspective, DLo isn’t scoring as much per minute as when he was a Net, but he’s also turning the ball over less considering his on-ball time is reduced. He’ll continue getting good looks in this offense and I suspect we see the minutes in the mid-30’s consistently if the Warriors are just keeping the game close.

Meanwhile, Jordan Poole got the start against the Pelicans on Monday in place of Marquese Chriss though admittedly that’s a spot they’ve shifted around to start the season, trying to find the sweet spot. I suspect the Warriors keep it that way for another game at least, going small with Draymond at the five and challenging teams to keep pace. Poole got up 10 shots, including five threes. That’s mostly going to be his role with this starting unit, hunting down open looks from beyond the arc and that’s about it. The ceiling is a bit limited, but he’s also coming at the minimums on both sites. That, plus the new role, has him as a solid punt play on this slate.

Jaylen Brown FD - $5700 DK - $5500
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.6 DK - 30.8
The Celtics have had a really weird start to the season with two of their three games ending in blowouts going either direction. In their one close game, Brown played 38 minutes against the Bucks. I really do think big minutes from the Boston wings (starters) is the plan for this team over the course of the season. Brown is averaging 17 points and six boards per game on the season despite playing fewer than 30 minutes a game so far. He’s also shooting 28% from three despite being a career 36% shooter from beyond the arc. He’s coming very cheap on both sites, but I especially like him on FanDuel where we need to lock in two of the shooting guards. Again, this is some trust that the real plan for Brown is to play him many more minutes than we’ve seen to start the season.

Other thoughts
Strongly consider Buddy Hield (FD $6700 DK $6200) who is in a great spot against the Hornets.

Portland has caught the injury bug leaving them to play their two stars more minutes. C.J. McCollum (FD $6700 DK $6600) is still coming at a nice price if you think minutes in the upper-30s sticks for the short term.

Small Forward

T.J. Warren FD - $5900 DK - $5100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.06 DK - 30.81
Warren saw solid cash game ownership on Monday when the Pacers faced the Pistons and I think we see it again on Wednesday. The Pacers will face a Brooklyn team that’s allowing a ton of points on the season and Indiana has shown a willingness to run their starters a ton. Warren has played 38, 37 and 34 minutes but shot very poorly from the field. He’s 11% from beyond the arc (1-9) and 40% from the field overall. But dude did put up 22 shots last game. He’s not going to rebound much with this team considering the two big bodies on the interior and Indiana isn’t going to ask him to distribute all that much. So that’s going to leave him as a scoring-heavy option. But that’s fine at these prices in a plus matchup against the Nets.

Gordon Hayward FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 37.43 DK - 38.3
Much like what I said with Jaylen Brown, I think we are still getting Gordon Hayward on the cheaper side of things considering the game flow nature of the Celtics’ early season. He lost minutes last game in the Knicks’ blowout, but played 35 and 37 respectively in the first two. In those games, Hayward averaged 20 points, six rebounds and two assists without any defensive stats. The latter is likely an outlier going forward considering what he’s been able to contribute on the defensive end. This isn’t a great matchup against a Bucks’ team that’s solid on the wings, but the Celtics in general feel underpriced regardless.

Other thoughts
I still like Rodney Hood (FD $4300 DK $3800) as a value play with the Blazers playing without Zach Collins.

If you think the mid-30’s Jonathan Isaac (FD $5800 DK $5400) minutes from last game are for real then he makes for an interesting option.

Power Forward

Draymond Green FD - $8000 DK - $7500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.57 DK - 42.02
The Warriors made a lineup shift for last game, starting Draymond at the five, going small ball basically the whole way through against the Pelicans. It worked and they blew out New Orleans. I think we’ll see the same thing here against the Suns, with Golden State daring Phoenix to go the same direction. Draymond was the nuts, putting up a triple-double (16 points, 17 rebounds, 10 assists) in a turn back the clock game. He looked active and energetic with so much of the offense running through him, getting open looks for the Warriors’ shooters. The price moved a bunch on FanDuel so we need to decide if these gains by Green are here to stick. But I’m still loving this play.

Nemanja Bjelica FD - $4900 DK - $4400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 30 DK - 30.4
Much like I said with De'Aaron Fox, the Kings concentrated more on the starter’s minutes (mostly) in this game and that meant 35 minutes for Bjelica at the four as he continues to fill in for the injured Marvin Bagley. The former was excellent with 12 points, six assists and a bunch of defensive stats. We can’t expect repeat performances on the blocks and steals (at least not constantly) but the 11 shots and six three-pointers would be enough implied usage to maintain a higher floor at these prices. It also helps that FanDuel power forward continues as a problematic position.

Similarly, Richaun Holmes (FD $5900 DK $4500) saw more minutes than Dewayne Dedmon last game even with the former coming off the bench. Considering how poorly Dedmon has played to start the season, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a short term move in this direction for the Kings. Holmes is so good on a fantasy point per minute basis that he might be a play even coming off the bench.

Other Thoughts
Opposing centers destroyed the Nets last season and that’s carried over to this year as well. While technically playing the four next to Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis (FD $7900 DK $7900) makes for a great play on this slate. He’s playing a ton of minutes, as many as any player in the league really and will have a distinct advantage on the interior against an undersized Nets’ team at the position.

Center

Myles Turner FD - $7400 DK - $7000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.71 DK - 41.29
Like I said with Sabonis, we targeted opposing centers against the Nets all the time last season and continue with a similar approach this year. The defense on that front hasn’t improved and they’ve only picked up the pace with Kyrie Irving around. That’s meaning a lot of potential volume. Turner is averaging a whopping 39 minutes per game so far this season. This number is nuts and I can’t imagine it continuing but the floor remains so high. That being said, his per minute numbers are definitely down with this relatively new Pacers’ team. He’s averaging *just* 17 points and eight rebounds (only slightly more than last year) and fewer blocks despite playing 10 more minutes per game this season. I’m still willing to roster him in this matchup because it’s almost too good a spot to pass up. But I’m throwing out those stats simply as a point of caution.

Nikola Vucevic FD - $8500 DK - $8000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 47.9 DK - 49.42
I love the spot here for Vuce. He’s struggled to start the season, shooting 33% from the field and 17% from three despite taking four attempts per game. He’s a career 50% shooter and 33% from three, meaning if regression hits this guy in any meaningful way then we are buying very low on the dude. After tough losses to the Raptors and Hawks, the Knicks offer a great chance to bounce back for the Magic and I suspect we see Vucevic’s minutes trend back up to the 32-33 range at least. The Knicks are a bottom-third defensive team, have had inconsistent rotations and just generally look like a mess on that end of the court. This is close to a no-brainer DraftKings price on Vuce who could really go off here.

Other Thoughts
Dewayne Dedmon (FD $4000 DK $4300) would be a great play if he could play in the mid-to-upper 20’s but that’s been asking a lot to start the season.

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