Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – WGC HSBC Championship

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

WGC HSBC Championship

The Asian Swing comes to a close this week as the PGA Tour heads to Sheshan International Golf Club for WGC HSBC Champions event. This is another smaller field, no-cut event where all golfers will play four rounds and we are gifted with another strong field highlighted by Rory McIlroy(#2), Justin Rose(#8), and Xander Scauffele(#9) who are all inside the Top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings.

The course is a Par 72 that is listed at 7,261 yards and while that is average for distance, the setup is unique and can play much longer. For instance, all four Par 3's are 200 yards or more yards and five of the 10 Par 4's are over 450 yards. While the fairways are narrow and have generated a low 52% driving accuracy over the last six years, distance is definitely an advantage as the rough has not been very penal. This doesn't mean short players can't have success here just make sure they are on with their long irons. The course has ranked 3rd, 13th, and 25th hardest in terms of average scoring over the last three years but golfers will need a ton of birdies to hoist the trophy with an average winning score of -18 over the last six years. There has also been at least five golfers(11 in 2016) with 20+ birdies in four straight events here.

With that, let's get into the picks.

The Course

Sheshan International Golf Club - Shanghai, China
Par 72 - 7,261 yards
Greens - Bentgrass

**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

Previous Winners

• 2018 - Xander Schauffele(-14)
• 2017 - Justin Rose(-14)
• 2016 - Hideki Matsuyama(-23)
• 2015 - Russell Knox(-20)
• 2014 - Bubba Watson(-11)
• 2013 - Dustin Johnson(-24)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee w/ emphasis on distance
• Par 4 Scoring 450+ yards
• Par 5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

Weather

When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.

Top Tier Targets

Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($12,400)

Rory made his PGA Tour season debut last week at the Zozo Championship and on the back of 19 birdies(T9) and two eagles(T1) finished with an impressive T3. He underwhelmed here a year ago with a T54 but has had a ton of success here with four Top 5's and no finish worse than T11 in his other six trips to Sheshan International GC. He can use his distance to his advantage and looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), he ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better Gained, and Par 5 Scoring. The forecast is also showing a heavy dose of wind this week and Rory also ranks 6th in SG: Total in windy AF conditions over the last 50 rounds. All things considered, Rory is my top play this week.

Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#14)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
FanDuel ($11,00)

Finau had issues hitting fairways last week at the Zozo Championship and it ultimately led to 13 bogey's or worse and a disappointing T59 finish. I am going right back to the well, however, with one of the best ball strikers out there as he ranks 7th or better in the stat in every sample size available. Finau has also been very successful here at the HSBC Champions finishing T11 in 2017 and runner-up last year after losing in a playoff to Schauffele. He is my favorite PYS/$ play in the top tier this week.

Mid Tier Targets

Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#56)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,200)
FanDuel ($9,300)

For the third straight week, fellow Canadian Corey Conners makes my core plays and for good reason. He missed the cut at the Sanderson to open his season but has rebounded in a big way with a T13 at the Safeway Open and has followed that up with finishes of T12 and T6 at the CJ Cup and Zozo Championship. Like I have mentioned over and over, he lacks putting which keeps him from winning more tournaments but he is an elite ball-striker(Top 5 ranked in all sample sizes) and over the last 24 rounds ranks 16th in birdie or better gained and 5th in opportunities gained. He is a target for me in all formats this week.

Charles Howell III
World Golf Ranking (#51)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,000)

Howell comes in 12th in my model this week on my sheet as he checks almost every box. It starts with the form which is trending in the right direction early in the season as he is coming a T8 at the Zozo Championship which was his second Top 10 in four events in the fall season. He also returns to Sheshan International GC after a T15 in his first trip back in 2017. Looking at the stats model, he doesn't really stand out a whole in terms of approach but he is very good around the green and ranks Top 10 in SG: Total in the wind over the last 50 rounds as well. I don't think we need to go here in cash games but I love the value and will have a ton of exposure in GPP formats.

Value Target

Xinjun Zhang
World Golf Ranking (#123)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($8,000)

I love these no-cut events as it is very easy to go stars and scrubs and we always get some talented golfers who are underpriced. Zhang is one of them and after winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season he earned his way back to the PGA Tour and is making the most of it. It started out slow as he missed the cut at the Greenbrier and finished 60th the next week at the Sanderson but since he has finished T7, T16, and T4 in his last three events while shooting in the 60's in nine of 12 rounds. Over the last 24 rounds, he also ranks(in this field) Top 20 in both SG: Off the Tee and Approach, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, and 21st in Birdie or Better gained. All things considered, he is my top value play this week.

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.