Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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The Playoffs are winding down as the Monster Energy Cup Series head to Martinsville Speedway to begin the Round of 8. Eight drivers remain in the running for the Championship Trophy with Kyle Busch still on top of the standings with the Playoff points he earned during the regular season but that gap has shrunk as teammates Martin Truex Jr.(-4) and Denny Hamlin(-9) sit 2nd and 3rd right behind him. Rounding out the Top 8 drivers in standings are Joey Logano(-16), Kevin Harvick(-18), Chase Elliott(-22), Kyle Larson(-35), and Ryan Blaney(-37).
From a fantasy perspective, this race is 500 laps in length putting dominator points right at the top of my wish list this week. Brad Keselowski absolutely dominated here in the Spring leading 446 of the 500 laps but there have been two or more drivers to lead 100+ laps in the previous five races. As it always is, place differential value is hard to judge before qualifying and this week we have another wrench thrown in as qualifying will be Saturday afternoon but the lineup will not be official until after inspection on Sunday morning. Stay tuned as my cheatsheet will be updated following that inspection.
Let's take a look at the track and then some core plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
Track - .526 Mile Oval Short Track
12° of Banking
Brad Keselowski returns to Martinsville after dominating the Spring race leading 446 laps. It was his second career win at the track and he has also picked up a Top 10 in nine straight and 12 of his last 15 trips to the track.
No driver has been as consistent as Kyle Busch at the paperclip as he returns with Top 5's in eight straight races here including two wins(2016, 2017). He has also led 100 or more laps in three of his last five and trails just Keselowski(712-582) in that department overall in those five races.
Martin Truex Jr. is trending towards his first career win here as he returns with Top 10 finishes in four straight and seven of his last nine.
Clint Bowyer won the snow delayed 201 Spring race here and has also been consistent as of late with Top 10's in four of his last five trips to Martinsville.
Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott are the only other two drivers outside those mentioned above that enter this race with at least four Top 10's in the last five races going back to the start of the 2017 season.
Like I have all season, instead of looking at short track history I have grouped the tracks that are flat(less than 15 degrees) and between a half-mile and one mile in length. I have done this to get a more accurate look at results on these similar types of tracks and I am also looking at just this season with the new rules package. These tracks include Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, and New Hampshire.
Martin Truex Jr. swept the Richmond races lead 100 or more laps in each and has finished Top 10 in each of the five races in this sample size in 2019. While his teammate, Denny Hamlin, hasn't won on a short flat track in 2019 he is the only driver to finish Top 5 in each of the five races.
Another Joe Gibbs Racing driver joins them in having a ton of success on these tracks this season as Kyle Busch won the Phoenix race, has finished Top 10 in all five races and has led 100 or more laps in four of the five races leading all drivers in that category overall(598). Kevin Harvick won the New Hampshire races and joins the JGR trio as the only other driver to finish Top 10 in all five races on the short flat tracks this season.
Martin Truex Jr. is the only driver with multiple wins in the playoffs and he is also one of just two drivers with five Top 10's through the first six Playoff races. Kevin Harvick has yet to win in the playoffs but joins Truex as the only other driver with Top 10's in five of the six races and like Truex the only non-Top 10 came at Talladega.
Denny Hamlin won last week at Kansas and has been very consistent through the playoffs as the only driver with four Top 5's and enters this week with a 7.7 average finish in the six races. He also leads all drivers with 374 laps led.
While Kyle Busch sits atop the standings heading into the Round of 8, the Playoffs have been anything but consistent for the #18 team. In the six races, he has three finishes of 19th or worse to go with three Top 10's, one of which came last week at Kansas. He now returns to one of his best tracks.
After a solid opening round with finishes of 9th, 11th, and 10th, Joey Logano snuck into the Round of 8 after a disappointing second round that saw him finish 34th, 11th, and 17th. After leading 100 laps in Vegas to open the Playoffs, he has led just 24 in the five races since. No driver is more happy with the points reset than Logano.
Chase Elliott comes in with some momentum coming off a runner-up at Kansas and 8th place finish at Talladega. Overall he has a win at the Roval and four Top 10 's in the six races.
Kyle Larson was very consistent in the opening round with finishes of 8th, 6th, and 13th then came out and dominated the Dover race and was the first driver to punch his ticket into this round. With nothing really on the line, he limped into this round with a 39th at Dega(crash) and 14th last week at Kansas.
Rounding out the playoff drivers is Ryan Blaney and I talked about his inconsistency all season and it has continued into the Playoffs. The roller coaster ride includes finishes of 5th, 17th, 8th, 35th, 1st, 21st but that huge win at Talladega locked him into this round and gives him a shot to be a part of the Championship race at Homestead. Stay tuned.
*These picks come before the Saturday afternoon qualifying session and the lineup is not going official until after inspection on Sunday morning. Stay tuned for the final update on my cheatsheet and join me in the chatroom if you have any questions.*
Kyle Busch
Kyle now returns to a track where he has been tremendous lately as he has Top 5 finishes in eight straight races here at Martinsville including two wins and has been easily the most dominant driver on short tracks with six wins, 12 Top 5's and 14 Top 10's in the last 17 going back to the start of the 2017 season. Taking it further, he is one of just four drivers who has recorded a Top 5 at all five short flat tracks this season and has led 100 or more laps in four of those races. He is my top driver in all formats.
Denny Hamlin
I am sticking in the JGR camp for my second favorite driver this week. Hamlin returns to Martinsville with back to back Top 5 finishes and has five wins, 14 Top 5's, and 20 Top 10 finishes in 27 career races here for the second-best career average finish(8.1) of all active drivers. He also enters the Round of 8 with a ton of momentum having finished Top 5 in all three races last round including hsi big win last week at Kansas. To cap it off, the #11 looks very fast in practice ranking Top 5 in all lap averages(5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30) in opening practice and Top 10 in all lap averages in final practice.
Ryan Blaney
Blaney punched his ticket into this round with a win at Talladega and now returns to a track he has been very solid at lately with Top 10's in three of his last four trips including Top 5's in two of his last three. The #12 also looks fast this weekend ranking Top 5 in 5, 10, and 15 lap averages in opening practice and his car only got better as the long run extended in final practices as well. He is an excellent PTS/$ option in all formats.
Clint Bowyer
One driver who has zero pressure on him now that he is no longer in the running for the Championship is Clint Bowyer. That means his sole focus will be on winning for the remaining four races starting with this week at Martinsville where he returns with a win and four Top 10's in his last five trips. The #14 car has the speed for Bowyer to grab another win this week as he led all drivers in 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages in the final practice.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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