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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday 10/25/19
The NBA season has barely started and it already feels like a ton has happened. Overtime games, looks at new teams, some surprises, a big-name suspension, and more. It's been nuts. Now we get a big Friday on the schedule with nine games on the schedule. Let's take a look at some plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Point Guard
Kyrie Irving FD - $9700 DK - $9000Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 47.21 DK - 48.31
Kyrie came about an inch away from turning his first game as a Brooklyn Net from amazing to transcendent. Irving was everything the Nets could have hoped for and more. He dropped 50 points on 17-33 shooting, with eight rebounds, seven assists and zero turnovers. It was basically like pitching a perfect game considering how damn efficient he was on the offensive end. He’ll have a chance to put up big numbers again on Friday against a Knicks’ team that simply can’t figure out what it wants to do at point guard. They started Alonzo Trier on Wednesday, but ceded way to Elfrid Payton and DSJ later. This team is already seeming like a mess and I suspect Irving comes out firing again with the Wednesday loss still fresh. That context aside, at these prices and his current implied usage it’s awfully tough to fade his scoring here.
Mike Conley FD - $7300 DK - $6800Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.07 DK - 37.7
Conley had all kind of issues in his first game as a Jazz. He got into foul trouble (finished with 5) which ended up costing him some minutes. But even when he was on the court, the shooting was the thing of nightmares. He put up a 1-16 from the field and somehow, because they are so good, the Jazz still pulled out a victory. The thing to be encouraged going forward though is the usage. If the plan is to have him as this kind of focal point of the offense, then these prices are entirely too low. We are buying low because of the horrific shooting. This is a good matchup against the Lakers who did give up points in the first game to the Clippers and could struggle with the Jazz’s complete team here in the second game. I love the prices we are getting on Conley here and here’s to hoping others see the game one log and think he can’t produce in this offense.
Other thoughts
The Kings already look like a mess, getting blown out by the Suns in the first game with Luke Walton jacking minutes all around for the starters. I’m still high on De'Aaron Fox (FD $8000 DK $7900) and think the price is a tick too low considering what he can do on the court. It isn’t a cash game play, but I suspect there’s a lot of upside here if the usage goes up a tad without Bagley and the Kings firm up the rotations.
Jamal Murray (FD $7100 DK $6300) is an excellent price on DraftKings and is close to a cash game consideration here against the Suns.
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $6800 DK - $6500Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.62 DK - 33.46
The Thunder hung with the Jazz in Utah for the first game of the season mostly because of Gilgeous-Alexander’s play. He ran 37 minutes and amazingly led the team with 27 shots. I don’t think this usage is sustainable, obviously, but it seemed like the clear plan to get him a ton of looks in the offense. Even if there’s a dip in the shot attempts, which there will be, I suspect we see better lines around the rebounds and assists. He had only three combined in the first game. That’s simply not going to be the case with the minutes trending toward 40. His price hasn’t come close to correcting if this is the Thunder plan with SGA.
RJ Barrett FD - $6200 DK - $5900Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.53 DK - 33.31
It’s rare for a rookie to come out of the gate and play outsized minutes from the jump. But that’s been the case with Barrett. He played a ton in the preseason (like way more than is normal) and it translated to the first game as well. He ran 37 minutes and put up 13 shots finishing with a 21 point, five rebound, two assist line. I actually think this is the low end of the expected production for the rookie if he’s going to see this kind of court time. With the Knicks struggling to find a solution at the point guard as well, I do think we continue to see Barrett as a secondary ball handler in the offense and should even see some of the usage tick up as he picks up the speed of the game. Plus, this Nets’ matchup isn’t anything close to what he saw in his first game against the Spurs. Brooklyn played at a fast pace in the first game and should be a volume up defensive matchup over the course of the season. I like the prices on Barrett here specifically related to the minutes’ floor.
Other thoughts
Norman Powell (FD $4200 DK $4400) played a decent amount of minutes in the first game with the Raptor going only eight deep. I don’t mind his price here even for a bench guy.
If Buddy Hield sits then Bogdan Bogdanovic (FD $5000 DK $4600) would immediately become something of a chalk play. He’d likely enter the starting lineup and the Kings would be playing really shorthanded.
Small Forward
Pascal Siakam FD - $8900 DK - $8100Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 41.32 DK - 42.29
Kawhi Leonard who? Pascal Siakam looked every bit the NBA superstar in the first game of the season against the Pelicans. We knew Siakam had big upside going into the game considering the kind of usage and rebounding upticks he’d seen last year with Kawhi off the court. But the first game exceeded even the most bullish expectations (and we were as high on him as anyone). Before fouling out at the end of regulation, Siakam took 26 shots and finished with a crazy 34 point, 18 rebound, five assist line. That he didn’t even add in really anything on the defensive end (one block) actually seems like an outlier as well. This guy is, in every way, heading toward being a mid-$9K on both sites so we are getting him still at a discount. This is a worse matchup against the Celtics for sure with their wings, but I’m seeing Siakam as an awesome price and opportunity play again.
Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $6400 DK - $5700Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.46 DK - 32.78
Oubre was fantastic in the first game against the Kings, putting up 17 shots in 30 minutes which unbelievably led the team (tied with Booker). I’m not sure this kind of shot volume is sustainable, but playing with a pass-first point guard in Rubio and now without DeAndre Ayton for some time could mean a sustained offensive role for Oubre. If so, then he’s still something of a cash game value at these prices. And if anything, the potential minutes increase going forward could help sustain the floor. With the Suns blowing out the Kings, the Phoenix starters didn’t need to close the game. I think the actual minutes number for Oubre is something in the mid-30’s at least.
Other thoughts
With Marvin Bagley injured and out for the foreseeable future, I suspect we see Nemanja Bjelica (FD $3700 DK $3600) enter the starting lineup at the four. He’s shown the ability to move between the small and power forward slot in the past so I suspect we could buy him as a punt play in this situation if he’s running with the starters. No Bagley (and maybe no Hield) should open up some usage as well. If we get definitive word on this starter situation after shoot around then Bjelica makes for a plug and play option.
Power Forward
Julius Randle FD - $8800 DK - $8100Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 44.01 DK - 46.75
We were bullish on Randle’s fantasy stock going into this season because it looked like he would see an expanded role in the Knicks offense, with regards especially to minutes and he’d made some strides in his game extending beyond the three point line. He put it on display (fantasy-wise) in the first game with a 25 point, 11 rebound, six assist line against the Spurs. Now he’ll face a defensively challenged Nets’ team especially when it comes to their interior play. Assuming Randle continues to start at the five (Mitchell Robinson is returning from injury) then he should be in a spot to take some advantage of Jarrett Allen in this matchup. The Nets got crushed by opposing bigs last season and Karl-Anthony Towns continued that trend in the first game. I like Randle’s DraftKings price a bit more, but he’s in play on both sites.
Jarrett Allen FD - $6800 DK - $5700Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.45 DK - 35.81
This play is somewhat dependent on what the Knicks do to start the game. If Mitchell Robinson is starting at center, then I’m less inclined to play Allen in the matchup. But if New York goes with the same Portis/Morris/Randle lineup they ran in the first game then I really like Allen’s prospects for a big game even in sub-30’s minutes. Allen struggled with Karl-Anthony Towns on both ends of the court on Wednesday, but I don’t see that as an issue against this proposed Knicks’ front court. Allen has double-double potential especially if he and Irving can work more of the two-man game barreling downhill to the basket. Also, there is no world where Allen should be listed as a power forward (and I hate positional tags as much as anyone) but here were are on FanDuel where the position continues to be something of a problem.
Other thoughts
Paul Millsap (FD $6300 DK $5300) played a lot of minutes in the first game with Nikola Jokic in foul trouble, though struggled to capitalize on that run much in his final box score line. That being said, if the plan is to run Millsap low-30’s minutes then this is a solid price on his expected production.
The Raptors really shortened up their rotation in the first game, playing only eight guys total against the Pelicans. Serge Ibaka (FD $5800 DK $5600) was a big part of that, playing mid 20’s minutes. I do think there’s some chance he draws the start in this game as well, though that’s just speculation.
Center
Aron Baynes FD - $3500 DK - $3200Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.75 DK - 21.67
With DeAndre Ayton suspended 25 games for violating the league’s banned substance policy, I think we see Aron Baynes get the start at center for the Suns. If that’s the case then we are looking at a nearly perfect punt play situation at the minimums on both sites. Baynes has shown the ability to put up numbers on the fantasy end when given minutes, and while not a 1:1 comp for Ayton (clearly), does have a versatile enough game to step in and easily hit value at these prices. He’d be a borderline double-double candidate considering how much the Suns need to make up in the scoring and rebounding department with Ayton off the court. There’s a chance, I suppose this could also be Cheick Diallo so we’ll keep an eye on news leading into lock.
Bobby Portis FD - $5200 DK - $5300Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.63 DK - 40.28
Portis is listed as a center on FanDuel but Jarrett Allen is a power forward. Ok. The former started and played 33 minutes against the Knicks. He only took 10 shots and finished with eight points, seven rebounds and five assists. Even with some of the usage concerns that come with playing alongside Randle, Barrett and Morris (among others) I still think this is a good price on Portis in what could be an up-and-down game against the Nets. The Wolves scored almost at will against Brooklyn and the Knicks really could put up a lot of points here. This is a situation though where we need to know the starting lineup because Portis could move back to the bench in favor of Mitchell Robinson.
Dewayne Dedmon (FD $4500 DK $4100) could be in play with Bagley out.
