(AP Photo/Joshua Paul)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Jeju Island, South Korea for the CJ Cup. This is an invitational, no-cut event that will see all players(outside of any who WD) play four rounds on the beautiful Club at Nine Bridges course. The field is led by two Top 5 players in the World in Brooks Koepka(#1) and Justin Thomas(#5) who also happen to be the only two winners at this event as it makes its third appearance on the schedule.
The Club @ Nine Bridges is a shorter Par 72 setup that comes in just under 7,200 yards. The biggest thing to point out when looking at the course is that it played much different in each event and that can be directly correlated to the wind. It was strong for most of the week in 2017 when Justin Thomas won with a score of -9 and last year it was calm throughout the event as Brooks rolled to a convincing four-stroke victory with a winning score of -21. Early forecasts are showing 8-12 mph winds pretty much all weekend so it is likely we see a score closer to last year in the -15 to -20 range.
Off the tee, golfers will see average-sized fairways that are protected by a ton of bunkers(101 in total on course), some water(11 hazards), and some thick rough(listed at 3.25 inches). These challenges off the tee plus the distance boost due to elevation will have a ton of players using a "Less than Driver" strategy and it shows as the average fairways hit has been over 70% both years. This also shifts a ton of weight to the approach shot this week and especially Proximity as the greens are huge(7,800 sq ft on average). The other thing that comes into play with huge greens is avoiding three-putts. Finally, with the wind not looking to be that high all week and scores expected to be low, I will be weighing Birdie or Better % very high as well.
With all that, let's have a look at the course and then get into the picks.
The Club @ Nine Bridges
Par 72 - 7,184 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (6.5/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($12,000)
Looking at the top tier, we have two elite golfers who have both won this event but only one of them will be in my lineups this week. That will be Justin Thomas who opened the season with a T4 at the Safeway Open after an excellent finish to the season winning the BMW Championship and finishing T3 at the Tour Championship. He won this event in tough conditions in 2017 and after a slow start last year(73/72/70 first three rounds) he struggled to a T36. Don't be fooled into thinking he can't win a birdie-fest, however, as he finished 1st on Tour last year with a 26% Birdie or Better rate. Strokes Gained: Approach is my top stat this week and looking at almost every sample size, JT is right at the top and my favorite play of the week.
Viktor Hovland
World Golf Ranking (#94)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($10,800)
I just can't get enough of Hovland and have pretty much committed to riding the wave until he gets his first win or I am broke and forced to retire from betting and DFS. Since turning pro and posting a T54 at the Travelers in June, all he has done is post five straight finishes of T16 or better including a Top 10 at the Greenbrier to open up the Fall season. More impressive are his ball-striking stats as he has not only gained strokes both off the tee and approach in every event but also has a streak of 11 straight rounds where he has gained strokes on the approach(#1 stat this week). I could write a whole article on Hovland and will have a ton of exposure in DFS and will also have an outright and Top 10 bet on him as well.
Cameron Smith
World Golf Ranking (#51)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Smith slips down in my model due to his ball-striking as he finished last season ranked 140th in SG: Off the Tee and 110th in SG: Approach. He more than makes up for it with his scrambling and putting skills and now returns to an event where he has finished Top 10 in back to back years. He also comes in with some trending form having finished Top 25 in two of three fall events. I will have exposure in all formats this week along with an outright and Top 10 bet.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#69)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($8,500)
When it comes to ball-striking, Conners is one of the best in the business gaining strokes in the stat in 80% of his rounds going back to the start of last season. The issue and only thing holding him back from more trophies is the putting(gained strokes in just 38% of those same rounds). He is most definitely in play for me in cash games as he has been consistent not only making the cut in six of his last seven events going back to the WGC St. Jude, but all of those made cuts ended up in finishes of T27 or better including a T13 at the Safeway Open two weeks ago.
Adam Long
World Golf Ranking (#133)
Vegas Odds (140/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FanDuel ($7,300)
Long has had a terrific start to his second season on Tour with three straight Top 25 finishes on the back of his elite iron play as he has gained 10.9 strokes on the approach in those three events(9 of 12 rounds). Overall last year, he was very inconsistent making just 11 cuts in 27 events but one of those made cuts was a monstrous win at the Desert Classic with a winning score of -26. I won't be going down this far for cash games but will be most definitely be taking the Long way around(that was terrible I know) in my GPP player pool.
Other values to Consider: Joel Dahmen, Harold Varner III, Brian Stuard
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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