(AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Welcome back hockey fans. After a full day Monday slate on Canadian Thanksgiving, we get back to the normal full evening slate and Tuesday brings seven games. Let's jump in and take a look at some of my core plays at each position and then be sure to get over and check out the projection system and lineup optimizer.
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Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 17.66 DK - 14.1
Hellebuyck has most definitely put his disappointing opening night behind him as he has been terrific since winning three straight. In those games, he held the Penguins, Wild, and Blackhawks to two or fewer goals while facing an average of 35.7 shots per game. With the lack of depth on the Jets back end, Hellebuyck is going to face a ton of shots all season which gives him a very high floor and ceiling. Tonight, he gets a plus matchup as a -140 home favorite against the Coyotes who have gone 1-3 to start the season and have scored just seven goals(1.8 per game). All things considered, Hellebuyck is my top goalie in all formats tonight.
Opponent - MON
Proj Pts FD - 17.64 DK - 12.97
I get that Vasilevskiy has looked a bit rusty to start the year with a .903 save % through three games but he is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and greatly underpriced on DraftKings under $8K. The Bolts continue their road trip tonight with a trip to Montreal and they open as -150 favorites and while the Habs have started hot offensively, I cannot ignore the PTS/$ value on DraftKings and will have exposure to Vasi in all formats. On FanDuel, where he is almost $9K, I think he will be much lower owned making him a nice GPP play.
Aldo Consider: Jimmy Howard(DET) as another value play on both sites
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 17.42 DK - 12.19
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 8.61 DK - 6.1
The Leafs are right at the top of my list of offenses to target tonight as they are the biggest favorites on the slate(-215) and projected for almost 4.5 goals. They get a plus matchup vs. a Minnesota Wild team that is playing on a back to back and despite picking up their first win on Monday, have averaged just 2.4 goals per game during their 1-4 start to the season. My first and one of my favorite overall plays is Auston Matthews who not only provides us an elite floor averaging 4.8 shots per game with a ridiculous 26.1 iCorsi/60 but he also has big upside with six goals and three multi-point efforts in the Leafs first six games. For value on the same team, I will also be looking at Alexander Kerfoot who may not provide a high floor averaging just under 15 minutes of ice-time per game on the third line but also gets time one the second powerplay unit(2.9 min per game) and has already picked up four points(1 PP). The Leafs are very deep at center and both of these guys and John Tavares are in play in all formats.
PP Stack Matthews with: John Tavares, Andreas Johnsson, Mitch Marner
Opponent - CGY
Proj Pts FD - 9.96 DK - 7.03
Another value play at the center position I will be focusing on tonight is Kevin Hayes. He is coming off a career-high 55 points with the Rangers and Jets last year and now with the Flyers, is getting a ton of opportunity centering the top line and has averaged 20 minutes of ice-time(3.1 per game on PP) through three games. He has just one goal but looking at the advanced metrics, more are on the way as he is averaging a 16.1 iCorsi/60 and 11.1 scoring chances per 60 with five of those coming in the high-danger area. He will heat up soon and with it will be a rising price so buy-low now and enjoy the PTS/$ upside in all formats.
Stack with: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek
Also Consider: Sebastian Aho(CAR) who has just one point in six games but us averaging 13.2 shots/60 & 20.6 iCorsi/60 pointing to positive regression
Opponent - LA
Proj Pts FD - 12.67 DK - 9.57
Opponent - LA
Proj Pts FD - 10.79 DK - 8.38
The Hurricanes made headlines last season with not only their post-game celebrations but with their play as well as they ended up rolling all the way into the Eastern Conference finals where they eventually fell to the Bruins. They have carried over that culture and success into this season as they currently lead the Metro with a 5-1 record while scoring four goals per game.
The offense is deep but it does start with the top line and what stands out tonight is the value with those top-line wingers. Teravainen is the playmaker on the line and is coming off a career-high 55 assists and 76 points last year and is averaging a point per game thus far(2 goals, 4 assists). He is skating over 18 minutes per game(over 3 per game on the PP) and has some decent shot volume as well(15.9 iCorsi/60) making him a great play in all formats against a Kings team that has struggled defensively. If you are looking for value, Niederreiter provides it skating on the top line with Teravainen and Aho and while he isn't the shot volume guy(14.5 iCorsi/60), he does get opportunities averaging 11.2 scoring chances per 60(4.0 high danger). Exposure to the "Bunch of Jerks" Canes is at the top of my priority list tonight.
Opponent - TB
Proj Pts FD - 5.84 DK - 4.63
For value, I will be looking to Jordan Weal who not only provides us with a ton of salary relief but is also getting ice-time and aton of opportunity with the Canadiens. He started the season out skating on the fourth line while also playing on the second powerplay unit and has since earned his way up to the second line seeing a huge increase in ice-time. The advanced stats are there as well as he is averaging 10.9 shots and 16.3 Coris per 60 with a whopping 12.7 scoring chances per 60 and 4.5 of those coming in the high danger areas. At these prices, he is a great salary saver in all formats.
Stack with: Max Domi, Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Also Consider: Anthony Mantha(DET) who has been operating with elite shot volume914 shots/60, 25 iCorsi/60) and already has six goals and eight points through five games
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 14.02 DK - 10.99
Now in his mid 30's, Giordano is coming off his best season a pro where he tallied a career-high in goals(17), assists(57), points(74), and +/-(39). While that offense hasn't yet popped early this season(three points), he has still provided a very high floor for fantasy owners as he has averaged a whopping five combined shots/blocks per game while skating nearly 25 minutes per game. I will take the high floor and bank on that upside popping anytime now and will roster him in all formats.
Opponent - LA
Proj Pts FD - 9.55 DK - 7.17
The Canes have arguably the deepest defense core in the league and that goes for fantasy as well. If you have the salary, Dougie Hamilton is right up there with Giordano as my top D-man on this slate but if you are playing cash games and looking for a more balanced construction, Pesce fits the mold perfectly. He has got minimal powerplay time this season but is still averaging almost 23 minutes of ice-time a game and has tallied an average of five combined shots/blocks per game(5 or more in 4 of 6 games). He is one of my top cash game plays at the position.
Also Consider: Morgan Reilly/Tyson Barrie(TOR) as high-upside options
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