Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Dover International Raceway - Dover, DE
Track - 1 Mile Oval
24° of Banking
One round down, three to go until NASCAR crowns a Champion. After a Chase Elliott win at the Roval elimination race last week, the field was shrunk to 12 as the Cup Series heads to Dover to open the Round of 12 this weekend.
The Monster Mile is a high banked(24°) one-mile oval track where track position is at a premium. The correlation between start to finish has been .700 or great in four straight and five of the last six races and it makes sense as you can fall a lap down here in an instant. In fact, going back to the start of 2016, there has not been more than 15 cars to finish on the lead lap in any Dover race and has averaged just 12 in that sample size. This puts a ton of emphasis on qualifying come Saturday afternoon.
With 400 laps in the race, it is also dominator heavy for scoring as there have been two drivers to lead 100+ laps in five of the last six races here with one driver leading 200+ three times. Looking at those six races and the 12 drivers who have led 90 or more laps, they have come from a Top 5 starting position seven times, a Top 10 starting position nine times. The biggest surprise was that both Jones(145 laps led) and Truex(132 laps led) earlier this year started 13th and 15th respectively. Digging deeper, however, while neither had speed in the opening practice, the were 2nd/3rd in final practice in both one-lap and 10-lap averages. Let's take a look at the weekend schedule, previous winners, track history trends, and then dig into the core plays for daily fantasy.
Let's start with some recent history and it was Martin Truex Jr. who came from a 13th starting position, led 132 laps, and picked up the win here in the Spring race. It was his third career win at the track(2016, 2007) and he comes into this race weekend with Top 10's in nine of his last 11 races here(15th, 11th in other two) while leading led 100 or more laps four times.
With Chase Elliott and other young drivers, I always mention "sample size" but that is now growing and one thing is for sure. Take him seriously here at the Monster Mile. He finished 5th here in the Spring, won the playoff race here last fall and now has Top 5's in six of seven career races in the Cup series.
Kevin Harvick hasn't been as consistent looking at the entire resume but returns with Top 10's in four of his last five races here with an average running position of 3rd in the last three races going back to the start of last season. He has also been a big-time dominator leading 200 or more laps in two of those three races as well.
Kyle Larson is looking for his first career win here but has been consistent with Top 10's in eight of 12 races with a 8.0 career average finish(3rd best among active drivers).
I feel bad and apologize to my dad and all Jimmie Johnson fans for waiting this long to mention the seven-time champ and his incredible 11 career wins here at the Monster Mile. It hasn't been great here in the last two races(14th, 36th) but before that, he had Top 10's in eight of 10 including four wins.
Kyle Busch has three career wins(2017, 2010, 2008) here at the Monster Mile but has been very hit or miss with nine Top 10's in his last 14 races and of those other five races, four of them are outside the Top 30. Smells like a GPP play to me.
From a career track history perspective, Ryan Newman stands out with three career wins but those came back in 2003/2004. If he starts outside the Top 20 this week, he is definitely on my radar, however, as he has Top 20 finishes in nine of his last 10 trips to the Monster Mile.
No one enters the Round of 12 with more momentum than Martin Truex Jr. who won the first two events and is one of just three drivers with a Top 10 in each of the first three races. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are the other two drivers with three Top 10's and Keselowski is the only driver with three Top 5's in the opening round. Chase Elliott picked up the win last week at the Roval which completed a very successful round one with a 13th at Richmond and 4th at Las Vegas.
Kyle Larson(8th, 6th, 13th), defending champion Joey Logano(9th, 10th, 11th), and Ryan Blaney(5th, 17th, 8th) haven't stood out in the opening round but did more than enough as they enter the Round of 12.
The biggest surprise for me after three races, outside of Erik Jones's struggles(36th, 38th, 40th) are the results of his teammate Kyle Busch. After leading the regular season, he opened with a 17th at Las Vegas, rebounded with a runner-up at Richmond but then had a DNF 37th place finish at the Roval last week. Either way, with the playoff points he earned during the regular season, he enters the Round of 12 with a five-point lead on teammate Martin Truex Jr.
*These picks come after practice on Friday but before qualifying on Saturday. For my final core plays, be sure to check the members-only sheet posted in the chatroom.*
Kevin Harvick
Harvick enters the Round of 12 as one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR with Top 10's in each of the first three races(3rd, 7th, 2nd) of the Playoffs and nine Top 10's in his last 10 races including three wins(Indy, Michigan, New Hampshire). He now returns to a track where he has had a ton of fantasy success lately finishing 4th, 6th, and 1st in his last three trips to the Monster Mile with 200+ laps led in two fo those races. He was 11th in the opening practice but posted the fastest 10-lap average and followed that up finished 3rd in final practice with the 4th fastest 10-lap average. He is my top play in all formats.
Kyle Larson
Larson is coming off a 13th at the Roval and was consistent in the opening round with Top 10's at both Vegas and Richmond as well. He now returns to the Monster Mile where he finished 3rd in the Spring and has finished Top 10 in eight of his last 10 with five Top 5's. The #42 car looks to have the speed to compete for a win this weekend as he finished 10th in the opening practice but what stood out was that he posted the fastest lap in final practice and led all drivers in 5, 10, and 25-lap averages. At his price, he is my top PTS/$ play this week.
William Byron/Alex Bowman
Both Hendrick Motor Sports drivers finished the first round with two Top 10's in the three races and look poised to go even further. They are both coming off career-high finishes here at the Monster Mile in the Spring as Byron finished 8th and Bowman came in 2nd and ran Top 10 pretty much all day long. Both are also high in my practice model with Bowman posting the 5th and 11th fastest laps and was also 4th and 3rd in 10-lap averages in those sessions while Byron was 2nd in opening practice and while 15th in final practice, posted the 5th fastest 10-lap average. Both are in play in all formats.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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