(AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
This week the PGA Tour travels to TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. World #1 golfer, Brooks Koepka, headlines the strongest field of the fall season and the last two winners of this event, Patrick Cantlay(#7 OWGR) and Bryson DeChambeau(#10 OWGR) will also be teeing it up this week.
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 setup that stretches just over 7,250 yards. As you can tell by the previous winning scores, this turns into a birdie fest quite fast if the wind stays down. It has ranked outside the Top 30 in difficulty in five of the last six years with the one outlier being two years ago where Patrick Cantlay won with a -9 in a very windy event. I will be tracking the weather forecast closely leading up to lineup lock but the early forecast from Windfinder is showing a slight advantage to the early Friday tee times with winds expected to climb up to 15 mph in the afternoon with gusts of up to 20 mph.
Looking at the last five years stats and results and taking out the 2017 outlier(high winds) the average driving accuracy has been about average(55%-60%) which makes sense as the fairways are slightly wider than average on most holes. Like most modern designs, the fairways do tighten up after the 300-yard mark but with average rough length that won't hinder players a whole lot, the bombers will have no fear of taking it deep even if it means hitting their approach shot from the rough. This puts most of my ball striking weight this week towards Strokes Gained: Approach and with larger than average green sizes(7,570 square feet), I will also be looking closely at Proximity especially in the mid-distance ranges(125-150 and 150-175 yards). With a high chance we see a winning score closer to -20 again, Birdie or Better % will once again be high in my model and to possibly find some guys trending in the right direction don't forget to look at Opportunities Gained(via Fantasy National Golf Club) as well. Let's get into the picks.
TPC Summerlin - Las Vegas, NV
Par 71 - 7,255 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($11,800)
Cantlay is coming off an excellent season on Tour missing just two cuts in 19 stroke-play events with a win at the Memorial with nine total Top 10 finishes and he also finished 2nd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total. While he was a bit rusty with the putter last week at the Safeway Open(62nd in SG: P), his ball-striking was on(4th OTT, 14th ASPP) and he now returns to an event where he won two years ago and finished runner-up last year. He is an above-average putter(26th in SG: P last year) so I expect that to improve this week which should easily put him into contention here at TPC Summerlin once again. He is my favorite play on both sites.
Collin Morikawa
World Golf Ranking (#75)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($10,900)
Morikawa is no longer an "up and coming" star as he fully arrived on the scene when he turned pro last year at the RBC Canadian Open. He finished T14 in that event and went on to finish the season making all nine cuts highlighted by a win at the Barracuda with three Top 10 finishes. He has carried that success over into his first "full" season on Tour with a T10 at the Safeway Open which, like Cantlay could have been better had he not finished 48th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He did, however, finished 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach and is 1st in this field in the stat over the last 24 rounds while also ranking 3rd in Opportunities gained. All things considered, he is a core play for me in all formats and I will also have a one-unit outright bet to win on him as well.
Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#83)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($10,200)
After three events, Scheffler leads the rookie rankings with finishes of T7 at the Greenbrier and a T16 last week at the Safeway Open. In those two events, he has gained a whopping 14.8 strokes Tee to Green on the back of his top-shelf(sorry, hockey season starts tomorrow) ball striking as he has gained 5.4 strokes Off the Tee and 9.4 strokes on the Approach. His price falls right below that top tier on both sites making him a core play for me in all formats.
Aaron Wise
World Golf Ranking (#88)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,400)
When comparing Vegas odds to salary this week on my sheet, one name stood out right away. Wise enters this event with the 20th best odds to win(60-1) but is priced as the 33rd and 29th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and FanDuel. That immediately put him on my radar and while most stats for him don't jump off the page one does as he ranks 1st in this field in Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds. He also ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total here at TPC Summerlin over the last 12 rounds(3 events) with finishes of T15, T32, and T10. At these prices, I will have exposure to Wise in all formats.
Sebastian Munoz
World Golf Ranking (#108)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,200)
Munoz is off to a hot start this season with a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Top 10's in his first two events. He was on his way for a third straight Top 10 before faltering in the final round last week shooting 76 and ending up with a T33 finish. He also checks a lot of the important boxes in my "Last 24 round model" as he ranks 23rd in SG: Approach, 9th in overall Par 4 Scoring, and 2nd on Par 4's that are 400-450 yards, and most importantly for fantasy he is 12th in Biridie or Better % in that sample size. He is once again one of my favorite value plays in all formats.
Cameron Percy
World Golf Ranking (#227)
Vegas Odds (140/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,700)
For even more savings, I will be going down further and getting some exposure to Cameron Percy. He is Top 10 in my model as he has been, most importantly, trending in the right direction as he has finishes of 63rd at the Greenbrier, then a T11 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and then picked up a T7 last week at the Safeway Open. The success has come with some excellent iron play as he has gained 10.7 strokes on the approach over the last two events and has gained strokes putting in four straight and six of his last seven events which give him a solid floor to start with. He is a player I will consider in all formats to help me fit in two top tier players in all formats.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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