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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/28/19
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Pitchers
Justin Verlander FD - P 11400 DK - SP 12800
Opponent - LAA (Jose Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 39.29 DK - 22.58
Where do you even begin with a guy like Verlander? He netted his 20th win of the season against this same Angels team last Sunday, and is now sitting on 288 Ks against 42 walks on the season. Those are Cy Young numbers. He wasn't spectacular against the Angels the last time around, but a pitcher of his caliber against an already bad team missing arguably the best player ever is a surefire cash game play. If there's a fly in the ointment here, it has to be the same as it is for every playoff-ready team - they could have every incentive to pull him early. The main slate is bad enough that maybe you try it, but you simply have to understand you're playing with fire no matter who you run out there tonight.
Robbie Ray FD - P 9300 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - SD (Garrett Richards) Park - ARI
FD - 35.75 DK - 19.18
If you're simply averse to running pitchers that are heading to the playoffs, what do you think about running Robbie Ray out there one more time for old time's sake? Ray got up to his old ones this season, striking out batters at an astounding rate of 12 per 9 innings, while also walking batters at an astounding rate of 4.33 per 9 innings. Still, that's a good enough package for DFS purposes, even if his long plate appearances keep him from going deep into too many games. It's a terrific match-up with the Dads, who has struck out at the fourth highest rate against lefties this season. It's the end of the season, right? Get some excitement in your life with Robbie Ray until we have to go into the playoffs and constantly smash good pitchers into good hitters, and vice versa.
Mike Foltynewicz FD - P 8900 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYM
FD - 27.7 DK - 14.33
Foltynewicz is coming off of his best start of the season, where he went eight shutout innings against the Giants his last go-round. The Braves are another playoff team, which is scary, but grabbing pitchers from playoff teams is sort of what you often need to do if you want to roster good pitchers. The moral victory Mets shouldn't scare you too much, though this game is essentially a pick 'em right now.
If you just hate playing pitchers in the playoffs, Trevor Bauer is a serviceable option as well.
Catcher/First Base
Eric Thames FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5200
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.02
Daniel Murphy FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - MIL (Gio Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 11.68 DK - 8.97
We'll get things cracking with a pair of first basemen doing battle in Coors field today. Yes, it's always tough to just try and play every bat from Coors, but tonight you really have an incentive to do so. Right now there is only one other game on the slate with a double digit total, so the Brewers in particular are looking juicy as -186 favorites in a game with a 12.5 total. I called Chi Chi Gonzalez "arguably the worst starter in the Majors right now" when he was heading into his last match-up with the Dodgers, so he unsurprisingly held them to 0 earned runs in 5 innings while racking up 8 Ks. His intentional trolling of me aside, the longer resume still paints a picture of a guy who doesn't below. He's walking .7 more batters per 9 than Robbie Ray while striking out about half as many. On a slate like this, I'm stacking Brewers whether you like it or not.
As for Daniel Murphy, I can't say I'd be thrilled to play him against his platoon splits against Gio Gonzalez, but he's still too damned cheap in these Coors games. Gonzalez himself is an overrated shell of his former self, pairing his typical high walkrate with a newly reduced sub 8 K/9. I'm fine piling on as many Rockies as we can here.
If you must play a catcher, consider Yasmani Grandal in Coors, or the cheapest non-terrible option you can find.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3600 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYM
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.57
Albies' early season slump feels like it was 10 years ago by now, with the Braves' switch hitting keystoner popping off for a 1.024 OPS in September this year. That's great in its on right, and then when you consider that he's also been a 1.121 OPS guy against lefties this season, you realize that you have quite an opportunity on your hands. Matz isn't terrible, but the 4.29 xFIP tells you pretty much all you need to know - this is a league average lefty against a guy who can kill lefties of all stripes.
Robinson Cano FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - ATL
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.85
After Albies, second base gets dicey in a hurry. The only real argument I can see for fading him in cash games is a random $2,000 player showing up towards the top of some as-yet-unknown lineup, or simply running out of money trying to prioritize the Coors game. Even then, I'm not sure it's the correct move. Cano is the kind of guy you'll wind up with if you go that route. His high contact rate brings a rather high floor, but the .746 OPS is just nothing to write home about, and the 13 homers in his 400+ plate appearances means there is little upside here as well. Play Albies if you can, and play Cano if you have to
Shortstop
Trevor Story FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - MIL (Gio Gonzalez) Park - MIL
FD - 15.89 DK - 12.06
One last hurrah of running the Rockies' big two out there against a lefty in Coors? It's pretty tempting. The Rockies 26 year old superstar will end the season with an OPS north of .930 against lefties, and a home OPS over 1.050. Grabbing him in Coors against a lefty is one of the very best DFS spots for hitters, and given the other options at the position, he's a top priority in cash games.
Paul DeJong FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - CHC (Cole Hamels) Park - CHC
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.13
Long gone are the days where DeJong was among MLB's WAR leaders, but that's honestly not a reasonable expectation from shortstop on many nights. DeJong is contesting the battle of shortstops at this point in the season in large part because it's been a war of attrition, with the good hitters looking overpriced and the bad hitters looking really, really bad. While DeJong is a slight reverse platoon guy for his career, you'll excuse me if I'm not scared of facing Cole Hamels in Wrigley this time of year. He's basically Steven Matz with a better haircut when you get down to it, and the Cards are an interesting off-beat stack for me today.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4500 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - MIL (Gio Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 14.98 DK - 11.28
It's the same case for Arenado as I gave for Story. He's expensive, but his numbers on the season are even more absurd - including a mind-boggling 1.166 OPS against southpaws at home this year. Let's get the band together for one last run, shall we?
Manny Machado FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B/SS 3800
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - ARI
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.04
So you hate fun, and are determined to scrape by value at third base instead? Consider Manny Machado. Whatever you think of his disappointing season, the guy just can't be a $2,800 player in a great hitters park against a less than elite left handed pitcher. Ray is solid, and sometimes spectacular, but super speculative, and you love getting Machado out of San Diego here. Like DeJong and Cano before him, he's a safety valve at the position for when you run out of money. It's tough to roster batters against Ray in cash due to his strikeout rate, but Machado's still-good approach should be able to generate some floor here.
Outfield
Trent Grisham FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 14.67 DK - 11.23
Ryan Braun FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 15.52 DK - 11.84
These two are comically cheap against a terrible pitcher in Coors, with Grisham's price looking especially egregious coming out of the leadoff spot. He could be %90 owned in cash game tonight, since he gives you all the ceiling you'd want with an incredible floor thanks to his projected plate appearances. Braun might not be playable on DraftKings, but he's excellent lineup filler on FanDuel and an obvious inclusion in any Brewers stack.
Josh VanMeter FD - OF 2700 DK - 1B/OF 3800
Opponent - PIT (James Marvel) Park - PIT
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.58
It took us a while, but we finally get to talk about James Marvel! Great name aside, Marvel has been a marvel alright, but not in the way that the Pirates would have hoped. After a 60 inning run in AAA where his 5ish xFIP was twice as high as his 2.67 ERA, that trend reversed in the Majors, with his xFIP slightly increasing to 5.32 but his ERA jumping to 10.22 (oops!). He's fresh off of getting dumpstered by the Brewers in a similar spot last week, and while the Reds have some issues, they should be able to give him one last beating before sending him off for a long offseason.
Marcell Ozuna FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - CHC (Cole Hamels) Park - STL
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.49
If we're assuming that you can't just play Coors guys at every position, Ozuna is exactly the kind of roster filler you're likely looking for. A rock solid .800 OPS guy in a favorable platoon spot, Ozuna has flexed 30 homer/15 steal talent this season, which is great fantasy support for a solid real life player. Again, I'm not concerned by Hamels and his 4.49 xFIP, and would be happy to grab Ozuna in basically any format.
Also considered: A number of A's, like Stephen Piscotty and Khris Davis, against Marco Gonzales.
