DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/25/19

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Pitchers

Shane Bieber FD - P 11500 DK - SP 11800
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 45.77 DK - 25.37

Figuring out pitching down the stretch has been a challenge with teams who have clinched with no need to push players and teams out of the running looking to avoid unnecessary injuries. Good news for us tonight is that Cleveland falls right in the middle with a ton to play for as they are in a tight race with the Rays and A's for the final two wildcard spots. The price has actually come down after his last start where he held the Phillies to two earned runs and added seven strikeouts and no walks. He has been impressive all season with a 3.23 ERA and matching 3.23 xFIP to back it up and in a matchup against the White Sox as a -290 favorite, is in play in all formats.
Jacob Waguespack FD - P 6100 DK - SP 6200
Opponent - BAL (Gabriel Ynoa) Park - TOR
FD - 31.68 DK - 16.21

To fir Bieber and his near $12K price tag without going "all value" with the bats, we are going to need to dig deep for an SP2 and one that stands out is Jacob Waguespack of the Jays. He isn't going to go deep into games and his upside is limited(18.5% K rate) but he has recorded a 10%+ swinging-strike rate in three of his last four starts. He is also a -165 favorite against well below-average Orioles offense(I know they are putting up runs as I write this) and only needs about 10-14 DK points to hit his floor and he has done this in nine of his 15 appearances this season.

Also Consider: Jon Lester(CHC) as a -190 favorite against the Pirates without their core bats

Catcher/First Base

Carlos Santana FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5000
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.78
Roberto Perez FD - C 2800 DK - C 3900
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.57

Like I mentioned above, the Indians are in a battle for the final Wildcard spot and the offense is doing everything they can to get them there averaging over 6.5 runs per game over the last week. They are once again near the top of the projections in the system as they get another plus matchup against Ross Detwiler who has given up four or more earned runs in five of his last seven appearances and 18 home runs on the season(26.5% HR/FB rate). At first base, I will be looking towards Carlos Santana in all formats as he has provided a high floor with a .288 average and .403 on-base percentage on the season while also providing a ton of upside with 34 home runs, 93 RBI, and 109 runs scored. At catcher, I am always looking towards Roberto Perez against a lefty as he has a .347 wOBA, 112 wRC+, and 45% hard contact rate in the split. He isn't consistent overall as he struggles against righties but comes in with multi-hit efforts in five of his last nine games. Both players are great plays in all formats.

Danny Santana FD 3200 DK 5300
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.8
Ronald Guzman FD 2300 DK 3800
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.6

The Rangers offense shows up on my radar against an inconsistent Rick Porcello who has been better in his last two road starts but has given up four or more earned runs in six of his 13 starts in the second half and sits with an ugly 5.56 ERA/5.24 xFIP on the season. He has also given up a whopping 31 home runs which seventh most amont all pitchers this season. Danny Santana is my first choice as he hits higher up in the order and has been the more consistent option this season hitting .285 and has also flashed upside with 26 home runs. For value, Ronald Guzman is the play I am looking to at the position or as a flex on FanDuel as he has been getting a lot of playing time down the stretch and has made the most of it with a very impressive .333/.412/.556 slash line in the month of September. Stay tuned for lineups this afternoon but both players are viable in all formats tonight.

Also Consider: Brandon Belt(SF) as a value GPP play

Second Base

Cavan Biggio FD - 2B 3800 DK - 2B 5000
Opponent - BAL (Gabriel Ynoa) Park - TOR
FD - 14.56 DK - 11.15

The Jays have been in full rebuild mode all season and have "let the kids play" but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be targeting them for DFS. Down the stretch they have put their offense on display and have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 13 games and four or more in 10 of those. Biggio is one rookie who has faced the most growing pains this season with a low .235 average and 28% K rate but is finishing strong and enters tonight with a .313/.427/.612 slash line in the month of September. He hits second in the lineup and gets a plus matchup against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.65 ERA/5.47 xFIP and the upside is most definitely there as he has also given up 27 home runs this season(19% HR/FB rate). Biggio is my top play second base and one of my top plays overall tonight.
Aledmys Diaz FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - SEA
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.31

The Astros are a Top 3 team in terms of implied runs(6.1) tonight and while they have clinched the Division, they are still looking to clinch the AL and home-field advantage through the Playoffs. Diaz is a value play I am keeping my eye on as he got into the game last night with Correa being scratched(sore back) and could be back in the mix again tonight. He has been hot lately with hits in three straight and four of his last five games with a two doubles, a home run, four RBI, and six runs scored. If starting, I will have exposure to Diaz in all formats and makes a nice bottom of the order stack to avoid the high ownership guys and save some money to pay up at pitcher as well.

Also Consider: Ozzie Albies(ATL) with very strong splits against left-handed pitching(.455 wOBA, 182 wRC+) 

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - PHI (Drew Smyly) Park - PHI
FD - 13.67 DK - 10.64

If paying up tonight, Trea Turner is easily one of my favorite players overall and my top shortstop. Washington still has a lot to play for as they are just a game up in the wildcard standings entering tonight and have been red-hot outscoring the Phillies 17-8 in the first three games of this series. Turner has been the driving force from the leadoff spot and enters tonight's game with multiple hits in three straight extending his overall hit streak to eight games. In that time, he has hit five doubles, four home runs with eight RBI and 11 runs scored. He provides us a high floor as well as a high ceiling and is a great play in all formats if you can afford him.

Amed Rosario FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - MIA (Robert Dugger) Park - MIA
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.38

For value, especially on FanDuel, I will be turning to the Mets Amed Rosario. He bounces around the lineup and obviously gets a huge bump if back up near the top tonight but either way comes in hot with hits in five straight and 13 of his last 16 games. He isn't going to win you a GPP with a lack of overall upside in a pitchers park but provides a solid floor(for the price) more times than not and will be in my cash game player pool on both sites.

Also Consider: Brandon Crawford(SF) as a low-end value to help pay up at other positions

Third Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 4000
Opponent - BAL (Gabriel Ynoa) Park - TOR
FD - 15.78 DK - 12.09

Going back to the Jays, it has also been somewhat of a learning curve for one of the most anticipated rookie callups in 2019. He has had his streaks along the way but overall, sits with a respectable .274 average and has shown good discipline at the plate walking 9% of the time and striking out a below-average 17% of the time. While the power numbers have tailed off at the end of the season, he does enter tonight with hits in seven of his last eight games with five multi-hit efforts and is very affordable on both sites. Fire him up in all formats.
Jeff McNeil FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Robert Dugger) Park - MIA
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.15

The Mets are all but eliminated from the 2019 Playoffs but one of the players who is responsible for them even being close is Jeff McNeil. He has been a pleasant surprise in his first full season with the Mets with a very impressive .312/.380/.525 slash line over 131 games. The upside is somewhat limited as he is not exactly known for his power but he has added 23 home runs but more importantly is a high-floor player with his position as the lead-off hitter. He is a great play in all formats.

Also Consider: Alex Bregman(HOU as a top tier play or Nick Solak(TEX) as a value play

Outfield

Oscar Mercado FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.27
Yasiel Puig FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 13.39 DK - 10.17
Jordan Luplow FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.33

The system is all over the Indians again today and for good reason as they are -290 favorites against a struggling Ross Detwiler and sit right near the top in implied runs(5.9) at the moment. From an outfield perspective, they are absolutely loaded with options starting with Oscar Mercado who hits 2nd in the lineup and comes in red-hot with hits in 13 of his last 14 games and has a .322/.393/.584 slash line in September. Puig has not been as consistent overall but has been much better since joining the Indians hitting .300 with an impressive .378 OBP despite the lack of power(2 HR). For Luplow, he is only in play for me facing a lefty as he enters with an elite .459 wOBA and 187 wRC+ in the split. Given their prices, both Puig and Luplow are in play in all formats tonight.
Mike Yastrzemski FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Tim Melville) Park - COL
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.32

I rarely ever want to target the Giants offense and especially at home but will make an exception tonight for rookie, Mike Yastrzemski. In just over 100 games played this season, he has hit a respectable .273 and while he has had some issues with swings and misses(26% K rate), he has also provided some upside with 20 home runs, seven of which have come at home in a tough hitters park. More than anything tonight, it's the matchup that stands out as the Giants face Tim Melville who has given up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts including eight home runs. Stacking the Giants is lower on my list but Yastrzemski is most definitely in play for me in all formats as a one-off play at a very reasonable price on both sites.

Also Consider: George Springer/Yordan Alvarez(HOU) top tier plays or Willie Calhoun/Shin-soo Choo(TEX) as value outfielders

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