(AP Photo/Joshua Paul)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
The Fall season continues this week with the Safeway Open. Through three events, this is easily the best field we have seen and is led by three Top 10 players(Official World Golf Ranking) in Justin Thomas(#6), Patrick Cantlay(#7), and Francesco Molinari(#9).
For the last five years(back to 2014-15 season), this event has been hosted at Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa, California. It is a Par 72 course on the shorter side of things listed at 7,166 yards, has seen an average winning score of -15, and has ranked outside the Top 20 in difficulty in all five years as well. Off the tee, golfers see fairly tough fairways to hit averaging in the mid 50% range in terms of accuracy over the last five years. What makes this more of a second shot course is the fact the rough is not very penal with max length in the second cut around 2.5" in length. Looking at the past Strokes Gained data also backs this up as Strokes Gained: Approach has been about twice as correlated to finish position than Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The four Par 5's are the easiest holes on the course and for this reason and I will be weighing Par 4 scoring over Par 5 scoring as this is where golfers can separate themselves from the pack and this also shows when looking at the correlations. To cap off the key stats, Birdie or Better % is always key and the most correlated stat in terms of fantasy scoring. With this, I love digging a bit deeper using Fantasy National Golf Club and looking not only at Birdie or Better but Opportunities Gained to find some golfers trending in the right direction.
Let's now look at the course, previous winners, and key stats list then dive into the picks.
Silverado Resort & Spa - Napa, CA
Par 72 - 7,166 Yards
Greens - Poa annua
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (7/1)
Draftkings ($11,600)
FanDuel ($12,200)
Thomas is back to once again opens his season in the fall which has worked out well in the past. He missed the cut here at Silverado back in 2014 but since then has opened the season with a T3 here in 2015, T8 here in 2016, T17 at the CIMB Classic in 2017(followed by a win at CJ Cup), and a T5 at the CIMB last year. He and Cantlay are the class of the field but I lean JT as he is slightly better in almost every key stat(T2G, Ball striking, Approach, Par 5, BoB %) on my sheet. He is also ranked much higher on my FNGC custom model ranking Top 5 in SG: App, Par 4 scoring, BoB%, and Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. Combining his elite stat ranking, course history, and end of season form(3rd at Tour Championship, won the BMW Championship), JT is my top play this week.
Adam Scott
World Golf Ranking (#15)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,700)
FanDuel ($11,700)
From a cash game perspective, it is tough to build a lineup with the top two players(JT, Cantlay) so I prefer to drop down to the next tier and Adam Scott leads the way. He finished the season on fire with three straight Top 10 finishes at the Northern Trust(5th), BMW Championship(T9), and season-ending Tour Championship(6th). The stats completely back up the performance as well as he gained a whopping 10.5 strokes on the approach and 8.3 strokes putting in those events. Looking at my custom model, he is #2 behind JT ranking 1st in SG: Approach, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Opportunities Gained, and 3rd in Birdie or Better Gained. Fire up Scott in all formats.
Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($7,000)
I wanted to add a third name to the top iter picks as the fist two are tow of three top-priced plays on the week. Ryan Moore comes in at the bottom of the top tier on DraftKings but what really stands out is FanDuel dropping the ball and putting him at min price. That definitely is not the only reason to target Moore as he returns to the Safeway with finishes of T2, T17, and T10 in his last three trips to Napa. He ended last season with a T37 at the BMW Championship and T18 finishes at the Northern Trust and John Deere Classic. He gained strokes on the approach in four straight and six of his final eight events but the risk comes in as he lost a total of 9.3 strokes putting in his final four events. With the upside somewhat capped with his terrible putting(does he even use a putter?) I will be reserving most of my Moore exposure to cash games on DraftKings but on FanDuel he is a lock in all formats at min price.
Dylan Fritelli
World Golf Ranking (#99)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,700)
After two full seasons on the European Tour in 2017 and 2018, Fritelli joined the PGA Tour full-time a year ago and it arguably went better than expected. He made 17 cuts in 23 stroke-play events(74%) and earned his first career victory at the John Deere Classic and ended the season ranked 41st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. While he ended the season with less than promising finishes(T52, T43) he started off the new season in style finishing T6 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship closing with a final round 66. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), he ranks 24th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in SG: Approach, 12th in Par 5 scoring, and 24th in BoB%. At these prices in this field, he is in play for me in all formats.
Lanto Griffin
World Golf Ranking (#197)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,000)
I have a feeling most people will be on Brendan Steele in this range as he won this event in both 2016 and 2017 but I will be pivoting to Lanto Griffin. He has definitely been on a trip down the road less traveled and faced a ton of adversity in his career and life but is making the most of his return to Tour early on. It started with a 13th place finish at the Greenbrier and followed that up with a T11 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. I am not expecting the Top 20's to keep rolling in as he has some regression coming considering he has gained a whopping 12.9 strokes putting in those events but I will be riding the momentum until the price increases or he falls off completely.
Cameron Tringale
World Golf Ranking (#278)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Tringale has picked up right where he left off last season when he made seven of his final eight cuts with five Top 25 finishes. He opened with a T36 at the Greenbrier and followed that up with a T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week where he gained 7.2 strokes ball striking(2nd in the field to Harriss English). He hasn't really shown much upside here at Silverado with a career-high T26 back in 2014 but he has made four of fives cuts and at these prices, can be considered in all formats.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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