DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/16/19

Sunday football is over meaning we start the week with some MLB action as the season winds down. There are eight games on this slate with some pitchers who've hit a late season lull and offenses against weaker arms.

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Pitchers

Robbie Ray FD - P 9200 DK - SP 9800
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - ARI
FD - 38.35 DK - 20.63
After looking like he’d cured some of his control issues this season, Ray has had a rough time of it in the short term. He had walked 10 batters in 14 innings before getting shelled by the Mets last time out and not getting through a full inning. He’ll look to bounce back against a Marlins’ team that’s ranked second to last in the league against lefties this season in wOBA. Ray is a -210 home favorite and the Marlins’ 3.4 implied runs are the second-lowest on the slate. Dude can still dial up the K’s, striking out close to 12 batters per nine this season. If he can exhibit even modest control in this matchup he has incredible upside.

Tanner Roark FD - P 7900 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - OAK
FD - 33.91 DK - 17.39
Roark has the best moneyline win odds on Monday as a -300 opening home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is garbage, looking terrible most of the season and now shuttling in September callup and non-prospects into their lineup to round out the roster. Roark is a slightly above average pitcher in an fantastic spot at solid prices on both sites. The sub-$8K FanDuel price puts him into cash consideration there seeing as how you can then stack bats a bit easier. The DraftKings’ price isn’t as advantageous, but at sub$10K, you are getting just enough strikeout equity considering he K’s about 8.5 batters per nine.

Strongly consider Matthew Boyd (FD $8900 DK $12000). Similar to Ray, Boyd had put together an exemplary season before struggling in about half of his last six starts. The strikeouts are still (mostly) there, but he’s been knocked around some, allowing five or more earned runs in three of those games. But I like his price on FanDuel even as an underdog to the O’s here.

Catcher/First Base

Eric Thames FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - SD (Undecided) Park - MIL
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.49
The Brewers are without Christian Yelich for the rest of the season which doesn’t bode well for their run-scoring prospects. But it does mean some increased opportunity around the top of the order to boost plate appearance expectation on a few of the Brewer bats. Under the assumption that the Padres throw out a righty in the lineup (currently undecided) Thames would be something of a value, especially on FanDuel, if we can limit some of his K expectation. He is a mid-.800s OPS guy with power. Assuming this matchup lines up, Thames is a value on both sites if hitting in the top five in the lineup.

Matt Olson FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5200
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - OAK
FD - 13.74 DK - 10.26
Even though there is a game in Coors, the A’s actually have the second-highest implied runline on the day and are actually coming a tick cheaper than the Mets on both sites. They face Glenn Sparkman who’s about as bad an everyday pitcher gets in this league. He has a 13% K rate and 5.79 xFIP. Olson is flashing the form he showed in 2017 when called up in the second half of the season. This year he has a .920 OPS with 34 home runs. This is a smash spot for the A’s and we could be stacking them in cash.

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD - 2B 2600 DK - 2B/3B 4000
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - MIN
FD - 11 DK - 8.42
Arraez’s .861 OPS is remarkable considering the guy only has three home runs in 314 plate appearances this season and doesn’t walk a tremendous amount (10%). But he does take more free passes than he strikes out which gets the ball put in play a ton. He makes contact 71.5% of the time and has been helped by a .369 BABIP, which doesn’t look entirely sustainable, but the contact is. Because of the lack of power, he doesn’t have crazy upside, but hitting near the top of the lineup at these prices makes him an excellent cash game play because of the floor.

Robinson Cano FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.55
Cano’s season has been disappointment, though he’s pulled himself out of the bottom of the barrel with four home runs in the last two weeks and has the OPS into the mid-.700s which looked quite impossible not too long ago. He’s heading into Coors hitting fifth in the lineup against a bad righty in Antonio Senzatela. The Mets have a 7.5 implied run line, easily the highest of the slate and it’s only the prices on the top of the order bats that might keep them out of cash games as a full stack.

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD - SS 4500 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - COL
FD - 17.39 DK - 13.2
The Rockies are a disaster, but it isn’t because of Trevor Story. Though I think I’m mostly fine avoiding them on this slate against Steven Matz, Story does make for an exception. He’s tuned up lefties for his career and has done so again this season with a .382 wOBA and .914 OPS in that split. He’s isn’t all that cost prohibitive considering the splits and is really only dragged down by the rest of his team (Arenado aside) who struggle to hit really at all. But the Coors boost is real and Story could be a one-off from the Rockies on Monday.

Marcus Semien FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - OAK
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.2
Semien is having a career year, ranking among the top WAR guys in the league (thanks in part to the fielding which has no bearing here) because of a few key changes in his approach at the plate. He’s striking out only 14% of the time (20% for his career), walking 11% (9% career) and has popped off 29 home runs. He’s basically put it all together for the A’s and become a fantastic leadoff option in their order. He’s better against lefties for sure, but the matchup against Sparkman is so good that I’m willing to overlook, to see degree, the downgrade in platoon matchup. I’d rather play Story for $100 more on DraftKings, but Semien looks like the FanDuel play.

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4300
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - OAK
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.7
The Athletics’ stack keeps on rolling here with Chapman who should hit second in the lineup for Oakland. He has 33 home runs on the season with a .859 OPS. He’s been platoon neutral on the season with a mid-.800’s OPS in both splits though a slightly better walk rate against lefties but fewer strikeouts against righties. He’s looking like a bargain on both sites considering you won’t have to pay all the way up for pitching on this slate and stacking the top-4 of the A’s lineup does look viable at these price points.

Jake Lamb FD - 3B 2100 DK - 1B/3B 3300
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - ARI
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.6
Lamb offers a punt opportunity at their base which is looking a little thin on the Monday slate of games. He’s struggled this season with the OPS which is under .700 but there’s some context in that number. His BABIP is about 40 points lower than his career average. And the home runs are down as well despite a 48% hard contact rate, the best of his career by a lot. It sure looks like he’s run bad this year and is coming at total punt prices on both sites. Lamb in the top six of the lineup would make for some salary relief at a weaker position.

Outfield

Max Kepler FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - MIN
FD - 13.44 DK - 10.18
Eddie Rosario FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - MIN
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.49
If you want a little savings at in the order to fit some of the more expensive bats/pitchers, the Twins top of the order is coming in the middle tier against Reynaldo Lopez. They have a combined 65 home runs on the season and face a pitcher with a 5.34 xFIP. The Twins have the fourth-highest implied run line on the day and the lineup isn’t prohibitively expensive all things considered. I do like that the strikeout rates on both guys are on the lower side, making for stronger cash game plays with the requisite upside.

Michael Conforto FD - OF 3900 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 15.55 DK - 11.66
Jeff McNeil FD - OF 3800 DK - 2B/OF 5600
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 15.14 DK - 11.82
For a 7.5 implied run line, we really haven’t talked about the Mets here outside of Cano. But McNeil/ Conforto hitting (presumably) 1/3 in the lineup could both be popular plays on Monday. The former has a .915 OPS this season thanks to an elite 13.6% K rate which makes up for the lack of walks and 20 home runs on the season.

Meanwhile, Conforto has 30 home runs, walks 12% of the time and has an OPS in the mid-.800s. He’s significantly better against righties with an OPS almost 200 points higher in that split and really the numbers against lefties are what drives down his season numbers some.

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