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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/14/19
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Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner FD - P 9900 DK - SP 8900
Opponent - MIA (Robert Dugger) Park - SF
FD - 39.33 DK - 21.38
It feels really good to start the Saturday main slate with a rock solid value play, and that's exactly what we're doing here. Bumgarner is an interesting pitcher to evaluate with advanced metrics, because he's outperformed his xFIP in each of his last 8 seasons. He's essentially better at limiting homeruns than he ought to be given his fly-ball rates, but we'll take it. In Bumgarner you're getting an extreme control pitcher who can strike out a guy per inning, which is more than enough on these prices. Throw in a great pitcher's park and a Marlins team that's ranked 2nd worst in the league in terms of wOBA against LHP and you have a cash game play made in Heaven.
Zack Greinke FD - P 9700 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 40.47 DK - 21.94
Another guy who perennially outperforms his peripherals, Greinke's ERA has been better than his xFIP in all but one of his seasons since 2012. His profile is similar to Bumgarner's, with fewer walks but fewer strikeouts as well. His match-up is arguably as good, with the Royals ranking 6th worst against RHP over the course of this season. He's also an astounding -340 favorite here, so the win luck should ever be in your favor. Greinke isn't going to light up the box score with upside at this stage in his career, but he should be a rock solid floor guy if you're looking for a pitcher two in cash games.
Also considered: deGrom, even in a very tough match-up with the Dodgers. He just has much better upside than the above plays.
Catcher/First Base
Stephen Vogt FD - C 2800 DK - C 4000
Opponent - MIA (Robert Dugger) Park - SF
FD - 9 DK - 6.89
If you must play a catcher today, Vogt is actually looking like a fine option. He's affordable, which you like to see, but he's also a legitimate threat for some real damage here. The 34 year old lefty is having a vintage year, ripping right handed pitching for an .863 OPS so far this year. Duggar is also an embarrassment to the game. He had a 6.05 xFIP in AAA, and built upon that resume by shaving 2 K/9 while adding 2 BB/9 in the Majors. Duggar and the Giants are in a great spot here, even if their offense is somewhat anemic in its own right.
Rhys Hoskins FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - PHI
FD - 12.99 DK - 9.68
Hoskins is just flat out a good player, and while the triple-slash line isn't going to be very flashy thanks to the low batting average, the incredible walk rate gives him plenty of floor. He's still got the bell tower power that he's had throughout his young career, and his career OPS is .220 points higher against lefties. Rodriguez is a solid pitcher, but he hasn't delivered on last year's promise, shaving a K off of his K/9 and bumping his xFIP over 4 in the process.
Joey Votto FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.41
Votto has come on strong in the second half of the season, but he's still priced like his first half woes. The Reds' slugger has a 16% walk rate compared to a 10% strikeout rate so far in September, putting together a .962 OPS in the process. Merrill Kelly has been breathtakingly mediocre this year, putting together a 4.68 xFIP that reeks of a guy who probably wasn't ready for the Majors. Votto is a great play in any format.
Second Base
Jose Altuve FD - 2B 4400 DK - 2B 5400
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 15.57 DK - 12.06
Writing up Altuve against left handed pitchers has been a Saturday tradition for me, and the works of Mike Montgomery aren't going to scare me off of doing it once again. With an OPS over .900 against southpaws for his career and 1.161 for this season, Altuve is in play at almost any price against left handed pitching. Montgomery has been the same 4.2-4.3 xFIP guy for the last half decade, and you can absolutely stack Astros against him today.
Rougned Odor FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B 4800
Opponent - OAK (Mike Fiers) Park - TEX
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.34
If you need to go cheaper than Altuve, or you just want to chase upside on lower ownership in a big tournament, Odor is certainly a playable option today. Mike Fiers is just lousy at this point, with his 6.14 K/9 yielding a 5.27 xFIP. Odor, meanwhile, is a boom or bust guy like you read about. He's 25 years old and is on pace to have his 3rd 30 home-run but sub .800 OPS season. What an enigma. Grabbing him in his home park against a guy like Fiers is a fast track to big numbers, though.
Shortstop
Trevor Story FD - SS 4200 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 17.56 DK - 13.33
Alex Bregman FD - SS 4200 DK - 3B/SS 5500
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 16.01 DK - 12.07
Two big money options at shortstop today, though of course we can't pay up at every position. Playing Bregman is similar to running Altuve here, and playing both of them together is an excellent option in big tournaments. On balance, though, our system likes Story a bit better. First of all, he's got a great match-up with Eric Lauer, who sports a below league average ERA and xFIP in spite of pitching one of the Majors' best pitchers' parks. Today he'll go from one of the best pitchers' parks to the very worst, traveling to Coors to take on Story and the Rockies. The Rockies' shortstop has a 1.116 OPS at home against lefties for his career. So, yeah, he's a pretty good play in all formats today.
Jean Segura FD - SS 3000 DK - SS 3700
Opponent - BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - PHI
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.3
It's going to be really tough to fade Story in cash games, but I sort of like this Philly stack on the basis of how cheap it is. Segura isn't quite as good a fantasy option as he used to be since he'll finish this year with about half as many steals as last year, but he's still bruised lefties for a .968 OPS this year, and that just has to make him playable if he's anywhere near the middle of the lineup today.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4800 DK - 3B 5600
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 17.07 DK - 12.85
If it's hard to fade Story for cash, it won't be any easier to fade Arenado. With two cheap options at the top of the starting pitching pool, it might actually be possible to play both. He's been one of the most consistent hitters of the last five years, and his career 1.183 OPS against lefties is the very definition of video game numbers. Arenado is one of the first places to turn if you're trying to pay up.
Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.75
But hey, if you can't pay up everywhere, Chapman is a pretty solid plan B. The 26 year old has actually been a slight reverse platoon split guy for his career, but he's topping an .850 OPS regardless of the handedness of the pitcher he's facing. Platoon neutral guys are actually very valuable for cash games, as it leaves opposing managers with few options when it comes to griefing them with relievers in the later innings. I'm not buying the Mike Minor comeback, personally, as his 3.08 ERA just doesn't seem sustainable given that his 4.51 xFIP is nearly identical to last year's 4.53 number. The A's are in a terrific spot here in a great hitters' park.
Outfield
Wil Myers FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 5100
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - COL
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.37
Charlie Blackmon FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.28
A few more members of the Coors stack. Blackmon will always be a part of those righty Rockies' stacks, but Wil Myers' name might surprise you here. It's honestly mostly a price and match-up play. Scouts were hot on Lambert coming into this year, but the sub 6 K/9 has manifested in a 6.86 ERA, and even the lowly Padres should be able to scrape something together against him in baseball's greatest hitters' park.
Josh VanMeter FD - OF 3000 DK - 1B/OF 3600
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.15
More cheap value, and VanMeter also gets the platoon edge against Kelly here. While it's been an up and down ride for VanMeter in the big leagues, his .771 OPS against righties is serviceable, and if he happens to be batting toward the top of the lineup he can help you make room for the excellent Coors plays.
George Springer FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 16.66 DK - 12.59
Shin-Soo Choo FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - OAK (Mike Fiers) Park - TEX
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.37
There are just so many great stacks today. Righties against Montgomery, lefties against Fiers in Texas, and the Coors game. You have your pick of the litter, so enjoy it alongside all of that NCAA football today!
