DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/7/19

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Pitchers

Justin Verlander FD - P 12300 DK - SP 12400
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 51.85 DK - 29.92

The clear top pitcher on the slate, and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Verlander is an astounding -380 favorite going into this tilt with Seattle, and it makes sense. He's nearly replicated last year's absurd peripherals, putting together 11.98 K/9 while allowing just 1.63 BB/9. He's gotten punished harder by the homerun this season, but then again, basically everyone has. He's officially an ace's ace no matter how you slice it. The match-up is excellent as well. The Mariners are a below average offense against right handed pitchers while striking out at the fifth highest rate. It'll be hard to make an argument for fading Verlander in cash games today.

Chris Bassitt FD - P 8200 DK - SP 9800
Opponent - DET (Jordan Zimmermann) Park - OAK
FD - 32.12 DK - 16.91

If you're looking for a solid pitcher two on DraftKings today, I'll be looking at Bassitt. The A's righty has managed his transition to a full time starter's role admirably, and while his ERA has outpaced his xFIP by more than a run he brings enough upside to the table to be a reasonable play in the right match-up. And the Tigers? They are most certainly that. They rolled out one of the most atrocious lineups in recent memory against the Royals, featuring studs like Dawel Lugo and Grayson Greiner. The heart of the order was Ronny Rodriguez, Christin Stewart, and Jeimer Candelario. This team is downright awful, and Bassitt is a -280 favorite as a result. It's quite simply tough to have a bad game against a lineup like the ones the Tigers have been trotting out there recently.

Also considered: Joey Lucchesi, since he's facing the Rockies at home.

Catcher/First Base

Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3100 DK - C 4500
Opponent - CHC (Yu Darvish) Park - MIL
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.29
We'll start off with a familiar name at catcher for this season in Yasmani Grandal. If you find yourself in the unfortunate circumstance of having to roster a "hitter" at this position, he's as good an option as you'll find on any given night. The price is right, and he's actually pretty good with the stick. He's now on back to back seasons with an .815+ OPS, and his fifth straight season as a 5 WAR player. The match-up with Darvish is far from ideal, with the Cubs' right hander whiffing almost 11 batters per 9 innings. But he's also walking a lot of batters, which plays right into Grandal's wheelhouse. Grandal's 16.6% walk rate is the fourth highest in the Majors among qualified batters, and that should help him have a reasonably high floor here.

Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT
FD - 13.31 DK - 10.02
We have a couple of juicy platoon spots at first base today, but the top of my list is taking Paul Goldschmidt against Steven Brault. In spite of some bad BABIP luck perennial lefty-killer Goldschmidt has posted a .922 OPS against southpaws of all stripes this season, and today he'll draw a well above average match-up with Pirates hurler Steven Brault. While Brault's sub-4 ERA is solid, his 5+ xFIP tells a more accurate tale of his abilities, as he pairs a sub 8 K/9 with a BB/9 approaching 4. Goldie also seems to have stepped past his early season struggles, with an OPS nearly .100 points higher since the All-Star break. I'll take him in any format today.

Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5600
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - ATL
FD - 13.89 DK - 10.53
The left handed Freddie Freeman has continued his decade-long dominance of right handed pitching this season, punishing righties to the tune of a 1.043 OPS and 30 homers in 393 plate appearances against them this season. Today he and the Bravos get the additional benefit of facing one of baseball's worst regular starters in Joe Ross. Through 60 innings in the last two seasons Ross has put together a 5.63 xFIP, and while he's risen above his putrid sub 4 K/9 from last year, he's also walking almost five batters per 9 this season, making him a total dud. The Braves will be one of the most popular stacks on the slate as a result, and Freeman will be smack in the middle of many of them.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 4900
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - ATL
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.73
Speaking of Braves, I'll present to you Ozzie Albies. While the young switch hitter has been much better against left handed pitching during his career, you can still grab him at too-cheap prices if he's batting second against a gas can like Joe Ross. He should have plate appearances aplenty, and if he does get on base adding other counting stats should be trivial. I'm not sure I like the upside here as a standalone play if you're not stacking him with his teammates, though.

Jose Altuve FD - 2B 4200 DK - 2B 5100
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 15.13 DK - 11.72

It's tough to pay up at every position, but if you can afford it, grabbing Altuve against Kikuchi is looking pretty juicy. The Japanese import just never put it together this season, managing just 6.55 K/9 and a 5.16 xFIP during his 144 innings in the Major Leagues. That's a truly terrible profile to bring to the table against underrated lefty destroyer Jose Altuve, who has ripped southpaws for a 1.212 OPS in 108 plate appearances against lefties this season. This will be a veritable feast for the Astros electric lineup, though it might be tough to pay up for all of them outside of big tournaments.

Also considered: Gavin Lux and Luis Arraez as young value options batting toward the bottom of their respective orders.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4300
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - CHW
FD - 11 DK - 8.6
Realistically you won't be able to play Astros and Braves at every position, but I think Tim Anderson is a pretty solid consolation prize at these prices. We now have two seasons where he's shown himself as a legitimate 20/25 guy, and while the lack of walks really hurts his on-field value, we'll allow it for DFS purposes. It's not a great match-up with Andrew Heaney, whose K heavy profile is reminiscent of a left handed Yu Darvish, but Anderson has been .084 OPS points better against lefties for his career, which might make up the difference. Still, Heaney's ability to generate a swing and a miss is a little scary for a hacker like Anderson.

Alex Bregman FD - SS 4400 DK - 3B/SS 5300
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 15.56 DK - 11.73

Like Altuve, Bregman has massacred lefties for a ridiculous 1.081 OPS this season. Must be nice to face the Astros as a lefty, huh? Anyway, like I said above, you can't play all of the Astros. But it would be a lot cooler if you could.

Also considered: Paul DeJong.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B/SS 4400
Opponent - COL (Jeff Hoffman) Park - SD
FD - 12.66 DK - 9.64
You wouldn't call it a totally lost season for Machado, but it's certainly a disappointing one if you're the one cutting the checks. Thankfully, DFS is different from real life, and we can just pay Machado less when he's playing poorly. The fact of the matter is that Machado is still plenty serviceable if you don't take his real life salary into consideration, and whatever his flaws, he should still definitely be able to hit a guy like Jeff Hoffman. The Rockies' right hander has allowed 37 earned runs in 45.1 innings pitched this year, and before you're all "Coors, bruh!", he's allowed 15 earned runs in 18 innings pitched on the road this year. The guy is just bad, and I have to think that deep down Manny Machado can return value against a guy like this.

Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 5100
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - ATL
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.41

Another part of the Joe Ross beatdown bandwagon, Donaldson has experienced something of a renaissance for the Braves this season. While he's conventionally been a big time platoon guy, the .933 OPS against righties is very encouraging, and I don't think we need to be shy about running him out there against Joe Ross. He's probably my second favorite part of the Braves stack, after Freddie Freeman.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 17.4 DK - 12.99

Shohei Ohtani FD - OF 2900 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 14.49 DK - 10.93
I'm not usually a man to stack Angels, but I've been known to make exceptions if they are facing pitchers like Dylan Covey. And Covey? Oh man. Last year's "improvement" to being merely bad seems to have worn off, and he's back to being one of the very worst pitchers in the Majors this season. His 6.02 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, and 1.89 HR/9 have him sitting at a 5.62 xFIP, which would be the very worst in the Majors if he managed to stay on the mound enough to qualify among the league leaders. Trout is an obvious play on any given night, but I really like the savings on Ohtani here, and his .843 OPS against righties should be more than enough to return value against a guy like Covey.

George Springer FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5600
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 16.19 DK - 12.24
Ronald Acuna FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - ATL
FD - 14.33 DK - 10.98

The Braves and Astros stacks continue. Both of these guys are among the best hitters in the game, and they have positive platoon situations against some of the very worst pitchers in the league. Hopefully you don't need a whole lot more information than this before proceeding.

A bunch of random cheap guys who might be batting high for bad teams. And really, I could right this about essentially every position. This time of year, more than any other, it's critical to have a projection system that can tell the difference between Duwel Lugo and Ryan McBroom. If you're ready to jump in and give it a shot, you'll also have access to our NFL system in time for week 1. Good luck out there!

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