We're starting the season with Lamar Jackson under center? It's looking that way. After Jackson took over in week 11, he ran for 536 yards in 7 games. If you extrapolate that rate over 16 games, he would have had 1,225 yards, which would have been good for 4th best in the entire NFL. It would have been 26 yards fewer than Todd Gurley, who is more expensive than Jackson going into this week. Oh, and Jackson also passes the ball. It's reasonable to suggest that we'll see some regression from Jackson in the running game this season, simply because we have never seen a quarterback run so prolifically without getting injured. That being said, isn't it also reasonable to assume that he'll probably improve somewhat in the passing game? Any of that would just be the icing on the cake, here. The Ravens are in a fantastic spot against the Dolphins, who allowed the second most rushing yards per game last season and have already mailed in the season. I like Jackson in just about every format this week.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 19.63 DK - 20.15
If you don't trust Jackson to continue his breakneck (perhaps literally) rushing pace, Wentz is a very interesting QB to consider. While it's true that Wentz is running a lot less than it looked like he would early in his career, he's quietly a much bigger force in the passing game than he gets credit for. While his end of year stats aren't phenomenal, is rate stats are excellent. His 69.6% completion rate ranked 3rd best in the league, and his 279.6 yards per game was sixth best among returning starters. He's got a solid core of receivers that's been bolstered by the arrival of DeSean Jackson, who provides a deep threat that the Eagles haven't really had in Wentz's time there. The running game should be improved with Howard and Sanders, both of whom can catch balls out of the backfield as well. Wentz threw for 306 yards while completing 27 of his 39 passes against the Skins last year, and again, his offense should be better this season. I like Wentz as a breakout candidate, and he his price could rise sharply if he explodes out of the gate.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 19.79 DK - 20.47
Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston in the same article? You must be reading DFSR. Listen, I'm not paying more for Winston than either Wentz or Jackson, but if you're fishing for some big time upside, he's pretty darn attractive. Winston has been painted as this erratic starter thanks to the Bucs' jerking around of him last year in particular, but his has actually been a case of steady improvement. His completion percentage has improved from 58.3% in his rookie year to 64.6% last year. While he'll be throwing to a similar crop of guys this season, a new coach in Arians should be able to suss out who the actual good targets were last year, and get the ball in their hands more. Both OJ Howard and Chris Godwin were excellent on a per-target basis last year, and Arians has even gone out on a limb and said that Godwin could be close to a 100 catch guy this season. This game also has the second highest total on the main slate, and if the Bucs are really going to score 26 points, Jameis should be prominently involved. Right? Right. Or at least we hope so.
When the week 1 pricing came out, our lineup optimizer immediately called out Westbrook's price as flat out wrong. It's one of those rare circumstances where a player is priced to his floor in a situation where he almost has to be better this year than last year. Last year Dede amassed 101 targets, but only converted 66 of those into catches thanks in large part to the fact that Blake Bortles was the man throwing him the ball. While I'm not a huge believer in Nick Foles as a superstar QB, he has to be a significant upgrade over Bortles, and this should mean the team trusts him to throw more AND that his throws will be of a higher average quality. This should mean wonders for Westbrook's fantasy profile, and it wouldn't shock me to see him 15% more expensive going into week 2. This game has the highest total on the slate as well, which only makes me more confident in this play. It wouldn't shock me if Dede was the highest owned receiver on the slate.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 16.6 DK - 20.18
While our system isn't ready to pay up at wide receiver on FanDuel, it's very tempted to grab Julio at this price on DraftKings. Yes, he draws Xavier Rhodes this week, but Rhodes is looking more like a big name rather than a big producer, with Pro Football Focus ranking him outside their top 20 cornerbacks last season. Jones led the NFL in targets last season, had more than 100 more receiving yards than the second place receiver, and converted 66% of the balls thrown his way into catches (as opposed to 59% the previous season). I'm not sure this is where you pay up on FanDuel, but I'm ready to make the leap on DraftKings with the full PPR.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 13.86 DK - 16.36
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 13.39 DK - 15.77
I rank these guys next to one another because of their eerily similar price points, and I think it's worth weighing throw the pros and cons of playing either. Let's start with a general tale of the tape. Chris Godwin: 59 receptions on 95 targets for 842 yards and 7 touchdowns. Kenny Golladay: 70 receptions on 119 targets for 1,063 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those are two pretty different players, right? Yes, Godwin got in the endzone more, but Golladay was targeted far more often and put up more than 200 more receiving yards. I get that there is a lot of positive buzz about Godwin coming into this season, but you could argue that his upside for yards and receptions looks something like what Golladay already did last season. These guys were both selected in the same draft. Don't get me wrong, I'm fairly bullish on Godwin going forward, but Golladay is quite simply both the more accomplished receiver and the more important player to his team's offense.
I view these match-ups as pretty similar as well. While Arizona didn't allow a ton of passing yards last year, their league worst -200 point differential suggests that opposing teams didn't need to pass against them much. The Lions are just 2.5 point favorites here, so Stafford should be passing plenty.
At the end of it all? Give me Golladay until Godwin lives up to the preseason hype.
Also considered: Our system is back on the Keenan Allen bandwagon, though it's not currently making a lot of lineups where you want to pay his price for a wide receiver.
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