DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/4/19

Wednesday’s MLB action gives us a mix of games throughout the day with some ace-level guys going in the evening main slate. This late in the season we are getting call-ups, teams who’ve essentially given up and those in the thick of playoff races. It can make things somewhat tough sledding, but we’ve got you covered. Let’s check out some plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Pitchers

Shane Bieber FD - P 11000 DK - SP 11500
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - CLE
FD - 39.55 DK - 21.82
We’ve had Bieber-fever all season long and it’s paid off. We’ll ride the wave again on Wednesday facing the White Sox at home. Cleveland is a -260 opening favorite, the second-highest of the evening slate. Bieber has some of the best peripherals you’ll see with a 6.2 K:BB ratio on the season and a 3.17 xFIP. It really doesn’t get much better than that and he’ll work against a White Sox team striking out a whopping 26% of the time versus right-handed pitching and ranked third to last in wOBA. This is a prime cash game spot for Bieber who has such a high floor because of the efficiency.

Zac Gallen FD - P 8500 DK - SP 9600
Opponent - SD (Chris Paddack) Park - ARI
FD - 36.71 DK - 19.09
Gallen definitely walks on the wild side at times as evidenced by the six walks in six innings game against Colorado three starts ago. And yet he was miraculously able to strikeout eight and allow only one earned run in that game. The last two starts have been steadier, striking out 14 batters in 10 innings while walking *only* three. He’s the second-best moneyline favorite (-280) on Wednesday at home against the Padres. The DraftKings price is a little steep if you are trying to pair him with Bieber though as we get later in the season there have been more and more ways to save on bats so I’m not completely worried about it. The Padres will K a lot (26% on the season) offering a chance for Gallen to dial up the punch outs.

I think there’s some case for Jake Junis (FD $7900 DK $7500) here as well considering the price and the matchup.

Catcher/First Base

Ryan O'Hearn FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 3400
Opponent - DET (Edwin Jackson) Park - KC
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.33
After struggling much of the season, O’Hearn is finally starting to turn things around in the short term. He has three home runs in his last seven games and has hit safely in five of the last six. I don’t tend to draw on short term stats all that much in baseball but for O’Hearn it’s worth it simply because he never projected to be nearly as bad as the OPS would suggest. This guy is still a very patient hitter with an 11% walk rate and likely projects as at least a mid .700’s (or higher) OPS guy going forward. I like him at this price against Edwin Jackson on Wednesday.

Carlos Santana FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 5200
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - CLE
FD - 14.34 DK - 10.69
Santana is putting up arguably the best season of his career. He’s walking (16%) more than he’s striking out (15%) which puts him in an elite class of modern day players who can claim that kind of patience. The .959 OPS is easily the best of his career and the 32 home runs are only two off from his best. At age-33 he seems to be peaking and though is expensive on Wednesday, there’s a lot to like about the matchup against Ivan Nova. The latter strikes out less than six per nine, inducing ground balls but Santana is such a favorite to make contact or draw a walk in this matchup that he makes for an ideal cash play.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield FD - 2B 3600 DK - 2B/OF 4700
Opponent - DET (Edwin Jackson) Park - KC
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.24
Edwin Jackson is still hanging around somehow. 9.35 ERA? Who cares. 5.85 xFIP? Let him throw! All the better for us who continue the ability to stack against the dude. Merrifield has a (very) outside chance of getting to a 20/20 season and does offer the dribs and drabs of power/speed combination you want to see in a cash game play. He makes contact in 77% of his plate appearances and Jackson can’t strike anyone out (15%) and walks everyone (10%). We are very much looking at Royals’ stacks today and many of them are coming cheap enough to fit some of the higher-priced arms.

After Merrifield, the second base options are a little murky.

If Gavin Lux (FD $2500 DK $3700) finds his way back into the lineup (or even at the top again) he’d be a pretty easy play in this matchup.

You are likely going cheap though with someone like Isan Diaz (FD $2500 DK $3000) or Greg Garcia (FD $2300 DK $3500) who aren’t exciting plays but would offer just some cost savings in order to move on with your life and out of the position.

Shortstop

Adalberto Mondesi FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - DET (Edwin Jackson) Park - KC
FD - 13.59 DK - 10.6
Speaking of just stacking Royals, Mondesi is another guy to get into the mix at shortstop. Any reservations about the wrist injury inhibiting his ability to steal bases (because of the sliding) were immediately put to rest on Sunday when he swiped three bags in his return from the IL. He’ll likely hit second in the lineup behind Merrifield on Wednesday and make for a great 1-2 cash/GPP stack in this matchup. I suspect, at least on FanDuel, they are something like the chalk. It’s a little closer on DraftKings where Mondesi is coming more than $5K. That could end up being a little cost prohibitive.

Corey Seager FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4300
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - LAD
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.39
I think I’m wanting to play Mondesi across the board on Wednesday, but Seager makes things a little more interesting at least on DraftKings where you get about a $1K savings. The power hasn’t totally come back after injury though he’s pushing toward a 20 home run season if he’d gotten a full run of plate appearances. He’s still slotting in and around the top/middle of the Dodgers’ lineup even with the team shuffling that part of their crew around as much as any team in baseball. Antonio Senzatela is among the worst pitchers in baseball with a regular starting gig and the Dodgers could be another popular stack on Wednesday.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 4700
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - LAD
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.16
As mentioned, the Dodgers are in a tremendous spot against Senzatela who brings in a 5.29 xFIP (some of that due to Coors) and some of the worst peripherals you’ll see from a major league arm who’s been allowed to pitch 100 innings. He has a 1.2:1 K:BB ratio which is just complete garbage and strikes out batters at only a 12% rate. I can’t overstate enough just how bad this is. Turner is on pace for the most home runs of his career, has an OPS pushing toward .900 and has hit righties better for his career in a reverse platoon split.

Jose Osuna FD - 3B 2800 DK - 1B/OF 4400
Opponent - MIA (Robert Dugger) Park - PIT
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.28
Osuna has made himself into an everyday MLB hitter because he’s improved his splits against righties this season. He’s actually been better in that platoon this year with a 150 wRC+ and .997 OPS. He’s walking more and striking out less against righties and is getting a chance to hit just below the middle of the Pirates’ lineup. He’d offer some savings from Turner if you are in a salary crunch and you have to like the matchup against Robert Dugger who’s something of a prospect for the Marlins, but nothing to write home about.

Outfield

Yasiel Puig FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - CLE
FD - 14.72 DK - 11.18
Oscar Mercado FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - CLE
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.84
Like we said with Carlos Santana, the Indians are in a good matchup against Ivan Nova. Puig and Mercado should hit fifth and second respectively in the lineup. Puig is probably better at fantasy baseball than real life baseball in that he mitigates his lack of walks by swiping bags (17 this season) and does have pop in the bat. He doesn’t strike out a tremendous amount which is great news against Nova who, as mentioned, has no K stuff in his repertoire.

Meanwhile, Mercado is just an average hitter who just happens to slot into the top of the order for the Tribe. He’s a low walk, low K guy who gets the ball in play more than 80% of the time. He also has bits of power (10 HRs) and speed (12 SBs) which help with the fantasy floor and is a slightly better hitter against righties, though not much. Mostly I like the price on him considering he’s hitting near the top of a lineup expected to put up runs.

Shohei Ohtani FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - OAK (Tanner Roark) Park - OAK
FD - 12.98 DK - 9.79
Ohtani hasn’t quite turned into the guy the Angels thought they were getting but he’s still a solid major league hitter who gets to be in Mike Trout’s orbit and that’s worth quite a bit from a fantasy perspective. He has an .844 OPS on the season with 16 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He’s been significantly better against righties for his short career with a .944 OPS in that split and a 152 wRC+. Tanner Roark isn’t a bottom-feeding arm, but is merely an average guy with a 4.57 xFIP and a K rate less than a batter an inning.

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