DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/26/19

Coors isn't on the main slate and we have a only a few games in the evening. Should be an interesting Monday in MLB on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Pitchers

Sonny Gray FD - P 11300 DK - SP 11200
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 38.13 DK - 20.29
Gray is striking out batters at the best clip of his career this season with a 29.2% K rate though the walks are still something of an issue. His 3.55 xFIP is below the career average and overall this will likely end up as the best season of his career. He gets to face the Marlins on the road in Miami which is about as good a spot you can be as a starting pitcher. With Caleb Smith going opposite, the win -165 win odds are a little lower than you’ll usually see against this squad, but he’s still easily the highest projected pitcher on this slate. The FanDuel price is very steep but no other pitcher is all that close in terms of projection.

Dustin May FD - P 6200 DK - SP 8500
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 28.72 DK - 14.37
The top prospect was called up in the beginning of August and had two impressive starts against the Cardinals and Marlins respectively before turning in a two-inning clunker against the Braves last time out. He’ll have a chance to rebound against the Padres on Monday. He’s a -150 road favorite in a good pitcher’s park which continues to limit power all around. The Padres are 24th in the league against righties this season with a 27% K rate in that split. May doesn’t project as a huge strikeout guy, but the control has been elite at basically every level including the majors. It’s hard to imagine him killing you in this spot and makes for a very good SP2 options on DraftKings.

J.A. Happ (FD $6500 DK $7100) has been kind of brutal this season, but this is a good spot against a very weak Seattle team.

Catcher/First Base

Josh VanMeter FD - 1B 2500 DK - 2B/OF 3600
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.36
The Reds aren’t heading in the right direction right now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some value with their lineup on the shorter slate. VanMeter seems locked into the leadoff spot right now and is drawing walks at an 11% clip. He has four home runs and five stolen bases in his first 162 plate appearances and is more than fantasy viable at these prices. Pablo Lopez isn’t a total gas can with an xFIP under 4.00 on the season, but the Reds are still in a favorable spot all things considered.

Matt Olson FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.31
Olson’s OPS is creeping towards .900 and the power has ticked up some in the short term. He gets a primo matchup against Brad Keller who strikes out batters out at less than 7K’s per nine and has an xFIP butting up against 5.00. The A’s enter Monday with the highest implied run line on the main slate (with Colorado thankfully going off in the afternoon). Olson isn’t the 1K OPS guy we saw when he first came up two seasons ago, but he’s still a borderline elite hitter in the middle of the A’s lineup.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/OF 4600
Opponent - OAK (Homer Bailey) Park - KC
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.73
For such a short slate, there are a number of subpar pitchers going. Home Bailey isn’t the worst of the bunch, but he sure isn’t good. His ERA has always underperformed his xFIP so it’s tough to say he’s gotten unlucky, and dude still allows a lot of runs. Merrifield is a power/speed threat with 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases on the season. He makes a lot of contact (77% of the time) and suffers mostly because the Royals, as a whole, stink. But that also keeps the price relatively in check.

Freddy Galvis FD - 2B 2700 DK - SS 4100
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 9.2 DK - 7.14
The Reds are dealing with some issues on the injury front and Galvis has found his way into the two-hole in their lineup. He’s having the best power season of his career (not the only one) with 21 home runs in a little over 500 plate appearances. He’s mostly a two-true-outcome dude at this point with very few walks, a fair amount of K’s and those dongs. But I like him against Pablo Lopez on this shorter slate.

Shortstop

Paul DeJong FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - MIL (Gio Gonzalez) Park - MIL
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.24
Gio Gonzalez has been able to keep things mostly in check for the Brewers this season so we probably don’t want to fully stack the Cardinals in this spot. But deJong hitting fifth in the order is coming at a fine price. While a reverse platoon guy for his career, he is still fine enough against lefties and this season is taking walks at a 12% clip in that split. That’s good news against a guy like Gio who struggles with control. At this price point, it’s a close call for me between deJong, Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius. Some of that could end up as an edge decision based on final lines and batting order news. So keep an eye on this one.

Donovan Solano FD - SS 2300 DK - 2B/SS 3900
Opponent - ARI (Alex Young) Park - SF
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.26
Solano tends to get the leadoff nod when the Giants face off against lefties and I expect that to be the case again on Monday. He’s not going to be an .800+ OPS guy going forward and the .411 BABIP is way run hot. But he’s been better against lefties this season with an .857 OPS, sub-20% K rate and 127 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Even with some built in luck regression, this is still a dude we are fine rostering at or near the minimums on FanDuel.

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 4700
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 12.89 DK - 9.71
In his third season, Chapman is having the best year of his career. He has an .870 OPS with 29 home runs, a 10% walk rate and is a tougher strikeout at 20%. He’s locked into the third slot in the lineup and gets a great matchup against Brad Keller. With the batted ball profile, Chapman is a great candidate for a bunch of contact in this matchup. You could even make the case that Chapman’s numbers should be even better considering the BABIP is about 30 points lower than his career number.

Jose Osuna FD - 3B 2400 DK - 1B/3B 4400
Opponent - PHI (Jason Vargas) Park - PHI
FD - 9.45 DK - 7.25
In his somewhat limited opportunity, Osuna has crushed this season with an OPS well over .900 and eight home runs in just 151 plate appearances. This represents easily the best showing of his career. In his age-26 season dude has just turned into a good hitter. He’s been more a platoon guy for his career with the slightly better split coming against lefties and he gets one in Jason Vargas on Monday. His walk rate is higher and strikeout rate lower in that split. For a very cheap, five or six hitter this is a solid cash spot.

Outfield

A.J. Pollock FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SD
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.51
He’s been getting the nod in the leadoff spot against lefties and making the best of it this season. He has a .950 OPS and 150 wRC+ against southpaws with a 47% hard contact rate. You aren’t getting him at an kind of crazy discount, but this is a solid cash game play considering the matchup against Lauer and the Dodgers’ run line.

Robbie Grossman FD - OF 2400 DK - OF 3800
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.34
He makes for an interesting cash play in that he hits up there in the order (typically 2nd) and takes walks at a near-elite elite level (13%). The latter hasn’t translated to big OPS games considering that number is barely scraping over .700. But in the end the plate appearance expectation makes up for a lot of the problems and if he’s just going to continue hitting this high in the lineup you have to consider him in cash at these prices.

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