DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/15/19

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Pitchers

Sonny Gray FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9100
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - CIN
FD - 31.18 DK - 16.41

The options are somewhat limited on Thursday considering our top projected arms in Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith face each other in an afternoon matinee. That has me turning to Sonny Gray who leads all pitchers in raw projected points on the main slate. It makes sense as he has been terrific for the Reds all season with a 3.10 ERA and 3.63 xFIP backing it up. He is also coming off two of his best starts of the season allowing just six combined hits, no earned runs, and 14 strikeouts against the Cubs and Braves. He now gets a plus matchup against a Cardinals team that is really struggling lately with an ugly .292 wOBA, 79 wRC+, and .131 ISO over the last 14 days. All things considered, Gray is my top pitcher in all formats tonight.

Andrew Heaney FD - P 6400 DK - SP 9000
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - LAA
FD - 31.6 DK - 16.82

Heaney made his return last Sunday after missing almost a month and looked pretty good holding the red-hot Red Sox to just three hits and one earned run over 3.2 innings. The one run also came on two hit batters and a sac fly which had Heaney pulled at 74 pitches. That is good news as we likely see him get over 90 tonight in a plus matchup against the White Sox who are just league average vs. lefties(101 wRC+) but do strike out 24% of the time in the split. Outside of yesterday's outburst, the White Sox have been the league's worst offense in the second with just 113 runs and an ugly .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+, and 27% K rate. Heaney's price seems a bit high on DraftKings which makes him a nice GPP pivot off Gray but FanDuel is where I am concentrating my exposure as he is just $6,400 and gives us an opportunity to absolutely load up on bats.

Also Consider: Alex Young(ARI) facing a Giants team that is near the bottom of the league against lefties(.291 wOBA, 79 wRC+)

Catcher/First Base

Danny Santana FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B/OF 4900
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - TEX
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.68

While the Rangers have struck out a ton vs. lefties this season, they have also shown more power as one of seven teams with a .200+ ISO in the split. Tonight, they face Devin Smeltzer who has been up and down in his brief time in the majors giving up 11 earned runs to the Indians in two of his four starts but holding the Brewers and Royals to zero earned runs. The number one reason for this pick at first base tonight is the price differential on FanDuel as he sits 12th most expensive at the position. Santana hits in the two-hole, has been consistent all season with a .310/.340/.571 slash line, and has hit lefties very well with a .374 wOBA, 128 wRC+, and 51.6% hard contact rate. I would advise using him in GPP only on DraftKings but on FanDuel, he is in play in all formats.

*Update: Michael Pineda is now starting for the Twins but I still like Santana in all formats on FanDuel.*
Joey Votto FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - CIN
FD - 13.01 DK - 9.74

The Reds have been scorching hot lately and are near the top of the list in implied runs tonight making them a great target. Like he has been most of the season, Votto sits right at the top of the PTS/$ rankings but tonight I actually agree with the play as he comes into the night with hits in six straight with four extra-base hits and does provide some safety with his elite 12% walk rate as well. While his lack of upside this season makes him a better high floor cash play, he can also be considered in GPP in a Reds stack.

Catcher Consider: Victor Caratini(CHC) who, while a small sample size, has crushed lefties 

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - CLE (Adam Plutko) Park - CLE
FD - 12.74 DK - 9.9
Gleyber Torres FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - CLE (Adam Plutko) Park - CLE
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.76

The system is very bullish on the Yankees again tonight and I will be getting most of my exposure through these two players. I list both as LeMahieu is listed at 1B on FanDuel but 2B/3B on DraftKings(correct) while Torres is just 2B on both sites. First of all, they get a plus matchup vs. Adam Plutko who has flashed at times but overall it has been a struggle as he enters with a 4.68 ERA with an xFIP(5.74) that is over a run higher. The biggest concern(for him) has been the long ball as he has already given up 17 home runs in just 11 starts. LeMahieu has been a slam dunk pretty much since he put on the pinstripes as he leads the league with a .337 average and is Top 20 in both OBP(.386) and wRC+(141). Torres has been a bit more streaky and probably better for GPP's but has hits in four straight with three home runs and now has 26 on the season. In cash, we will have to choose one and I am leaning LeMahieu while I will try and get both in GPP and ride the Yankees hot streak.
Luis Arraez FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Pedro Payano) Park - TEX
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.49

From a PTS/$ perspective, especially on FanDuel, the system is liking rookie Luis Arraez. The Twins currently top the implied run ranks going up against another rookie in Pedro Payano who hasn't been terrible but is running hot with a 3.86 ERA considering the xFIP(5.73) is almost two full runs higher. If you are looking for upside, Arraez may not be for you as he only hit three home runs over the last three years in the minors and just two so far with the Twins. What he does provide, outside of salary relief, is a very consistent floor as he enters tonight with a .348 average with an 11% walk rate and very low 7% K rate which has led to a near-elite .372 wOBA and 131 wRC+. Get him in your lineups in all formats if you are not paying up for the Yankees.

Also Consider: Cesar Hernandez(PHI) for even more salary relief

Shortstop

Jorge Polanco FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Pedro Payano) Park - TEX
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.41

If you have been over to the projections and lineup optimizer you will see that it has made a stand that Jorge Polanco and Did Gregorius are the plays at shortstop and I have to agree 100% here. Both players are in games with monster totals(11 & 12) and both teams are projected for 6+ runs at the moment but with Didi's struggles lately, I fully lean Polanco as my top option. First of all, he is a switch hitter who has been WAY better from the left side with a .380 wOBA, 137 wRC, and .916 OPS and gets a plus matchup(which I mentioned above) against a pitcher who is giving up home runs in bunches. If you have the salary, which is possible with no pitchers above $10K, Javier Baez is a great play against a lefty but if you need the salary Polanco is the man tonight.
David Fletcher FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHW
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.29

If you really want to save some salary and load up elsewhere, consider David Fletcher. In no way is he flashy or provide upside with a .284/.343/.394 slash line and five home runs but what he does provide us outside of savings is opportunity as he spends a majority of his starts in the leadoff spot in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. That is more than enough for me to add him to my player pool tonight considering the low price on both sites and access to more elite bats at other positions.

Also Consider: Javier Baez(CHC) who crushes lefties if you can afford him or Freddy Galvis(CIN) as another value play

Third Base

Eugenio Suarez FD - 3B 3900 DK - 3B 4600
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - CIN
FD - 12.94 DK - 9.73

Like I mentioned with Votto, the Reds are right near the top of my list tonight but what I didn't mention is the matchup. They are -150 favorites and Top 5 in implied runs going up against Michael Wacha who got back into the rotation last but struggled mightily against the Dodgers allowing seven hits and six earned runs(two home runs). Overall, he has been pretty much a disaster all season with a 5.54 ERA and xFIP(5.00) that is not much better. On top of that, he has given up 21 home runs for an eye-popping 23.9% HR/FB rate and has once again shown reverse splits. For Suarez, he has struggled from an average standpoint(.258 on the season) but is providing a ton of upside with 33 home runs, four of which have come in August. He provides some salary relief off the top options and is my favorite play at the position in all formats.

After Suarez, there are a plethora of options starting with Gio Urshela(NYY) who has been on another planet with a .597 wOBA, 284 wRC+, and .510 ISO over the last 30 days(55 plate appearances). Kris Bryant(CHC) hasn't been as hot but pretty close with a .370 wOBA, 128 wRC+, and .217 ISO over the last month and he also crushes lefties(.474 wOBA, 196 wRC+). For GPP formats, I will also be considering Matt Chapman(OAK), especially on DraftKings where he is still underpriced and should be low owned against a hot Aaron Sanchez.

Outfield

Aristides Aquino FD - OF 4100 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - CIN
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.55

The price on Aquino has gotten to a point where we really have to make a decision for cash games but there is literally no hitter who has been as hot lately at least from an upside standpoint. He made his debut at the start of August and already has 17 hits with five multi-hit efforts(.386 average) with nine home runs(9!!!). He hits in the middle of the lineup and the matchup is right up his alley as Wacha has trouble with right-handed bats(.403 wOBA, .591 SLG against). With no $10K+ pitcher on the slate tonight, it should be no problem paying up for Aquino or any top tier player you prefer tonight.
Nicholas Castellanos FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 4700
Opponent - PHI (Drew Smyly) Park - PHI
FD - 12.91 DK - 9.87
Ian Happ FD - OF 3000 DK - 2B/OF 4300
Opponent - PHI (Drew Smyly) Park - PHI
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.72

If price is a concern and you can't quite get to Aquino or other elite outfielders, consider this Cubs duo. Let's start with the matchup as they are early -140 favorites going up against Drew Smyly who started out hot with his new team but quickly fell back into what we have expected from him all season. Runs. Lots of runs. In fact, he has given up four or more runs 10 times this season with 21 home runs(22.5% HR/FB rate) and a 46% hard contact rate. The first player on my radar is Nicholas Castellanos who joined the Cubs at the trade deadline and has been terrific with hits in 12 of 13 games with five home runs. More good news as he also crushes lefties to the tune of a .465 wOBA, 194 wRC+, and 49% hard contact rate. If he gets the start again, Ian Happ is also on my radar and while he struggled initially upon being called up at the start of August he has flashed upside lately with multi-hit efforts in five of his last nine games and also hits lefties well. Both players are in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Michael Conforto/J.D. Davis(NYM)

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