Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads back to Michigan for the second time this season after Joey Logano dominated from the pole leading 163 laps en route to the win the June race. With only four races remaining in the regular season, things are getting intense and a lot of that boiled over last week. It started with an incident involving Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Blaney which led to a heated discussion on pit road. Then there was Kyle Busch getting involved with not only William Byron but also Bubba Wallace, who both sent the #18 spinning gaining a ton of fans in the process. Emotions are running hot, especially for those fighting for points to make the playoffs so before we get into the race at Michigan, let's look at the drivers around that playoff bubble.
Very similar to the last three races(Watkisn Glen, Pocono, New Hampshire), Michigan is another track where track position is huge. Looking at the last six races here, there have been at least five drivers to start and finish Top 10 in each of those races with six more drivers doing so four times. The correlation between starting and finishing position is one of the highest in NASCAR ranging from .585 to .810 over those six races. The winner has also come from the pole position in six of the last 12 races and from a Top 10 starting position nine times.
With 200 laps in the race, dominator points are going to be a story when talking fantasy. More recently it has been a one dominator race as one driver has led 100 or more laps in two straight and three of the last four and only once in those four races have multiple drivers led 50 ore more. Place differential has been hard to come by as well with more than five drivers picking up double-digit PD points just once in the last six races.
Let's take a look at the track, some trends, then dive into the picks.
Michigan International Speedway
Track - 2 mile D-Shaped Oval
18° of Banking
Like I mentioned in the intro, Joey Logano dominated the June race here starting from the pole, leading 163 laps, and picking up his third career win at the track, tied with two other drivers for most among active drivers. He is also one of just three drivers with Top 10's in four of the last five races here and taking it further he has finished Top 10 in 12 of his last 13 races here at Michigan.
Kyle Busch hasn't won here since 2011 but has been very consistent here lately with three straight Top 5's and five straight Top 10 finishes leading all drivers with a 5.8 average finish in that time. The only thing he has lacked are dominator points as he is 6th in laps led(76) in that five-race sample size.
It has been a roller coaster ride here for Kyle Larson who has finished 14th or worse in three straight but absolutely dominated before that winning three straight leading a total of 139 laps. He may be the one driver is overly excited about the PJ1 compound on the top groove.
Kurt Busch joins Larson and Logano as the only other driver with three career wins here, the last of which came in 2015. He has been consistent lately as well with finishes of 2nd, 6th, and 3rd in his last three races and trails just brother Kyle with a 6.8 average finish in the last five races here.
From a fantasy perspective going back to the start of 2017(five races), Kevin Harvick leads the way with an average of 62.6 DraftKings/55.9 FanDuel points per race with a 7.4 average finish and series-leading 172 laps led. Going back further, he has Top 10 finishes in 10 of his last 13 races with nine Top 5's.
While he is still searching for his first win on the season, Erik Jones has been very consistent down the stretch of the regular season. He comes into this week with four straight Top 5 finishes and has Top 10's in six of his last seven races. No better timing for a run than when you are fighting for points to make the playoffs.
This weeks form ranks are dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing as Denny Hamlin sits second with an 8.7 average finish over the last six races with a win(Pocono) and like Jones, he has four straight Top 5 finishes. Martin Truex Jr. is third in the form ranks with back to back podium finishes(2nd Watkins Glen, 3rd Pocono) and is one of six drivers with at least four Top 10's in the last six races. Kyle Busch has fallen to fifth in the form ranks this week after an 11th place finish last week which was impressive in itself seeing as he spun out twice.
Sandwiched right in between all the Toyota's is William Byron who, despite a 21st last week, still sits with the fourth-best average finish(10.8) over the last six races.
Another driver racing for his playoff life who has been better lately is Kyle Larson. For only the third time this season, he has put together back to back Top 10 finishes and has four in his last six races for a 12.0 average finish.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick has been near dominant here at Michigan lately with a win, nine Top 5's, and 10 Top 10's in his last 13 trips to the track. He was narrowly edged out by Brad Keselowski for the pole on Friday afternoon but he had the better car on Saturday leading the second practice in both one-lap and 10-lap averages(Keselowski-18th, 8th). Currently during final practice, Harvick is 3rd fastest(Keselowski-13th) and Top 5 in both five-lap and 10-lap averages. He is my top dominator play of the week and will be a core play for me in all formats.
Kyle Busch
Busch has just one career win here(2015) but has also been very consistent lately with three straight Top 5's and five straight Top 10 finishes at the track. He is usually one of my dominator picks leading the series with 1,015 laps led on the season but this week his value comes in the form of place differential as he will start 24th on Sunday. I talked about this race being one with few opportunities for double-digit place differential but Kyle is at the top of the list here, especially considering he came out flying on Saturday morning ranking 2nd in one-lap and 3rd in 10-lap averages.
Erik Jones
In the mid-range, the chalk is going to lie with Erik Jones who also provides us some place differential value starting 18th this week. That is definitely not the only reason to target him, however, as he has been red hot with four straight Top 5's and Top 10's in six of his last seven races. On top of that, he has shown us he has a very strong car this week ranking 4th in practice #2 with the second-fastest 10-lap average and currently in final practice he is fastest in one-lap, five-lap, and 10-lap averages. Fire up Jones in all formats.
Chris Buescher
He has been a top value pay all season and nothing changes this week. He struggled off the truck on Friday ranking 25th in opening practice and followed it up with a 27th qualifying run. The team improved the #37 car significantly for Saturday's practice where he ranked 13th and 19th in speed and was 12th in 10-lap averages in P2 and 15th in five-lap averages in final practice. He will be high owned but a core play for me in all formats.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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