DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/3/19

Saturday’s baseball action brings us a slightly different schedule than we’re used to seeing for a weekend set. There are only two day games and everything else is being played at night. That’s a departure than the typical afternoon schedule we get on Saturdays. But we’ve got you covered for the main slate of games with some offenses in great spots and some value pitching as well.

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Pitchers

Aaron Nola FD 10500 DK 10100
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 37.84 DK - 20.59
Nola hasn’t turned in the same season as his 2018 campaign with both the ERA and xFIP trending higher across the board. I’m mostly concerned with the 3.66 BB/9 walk rate that’s nearly a whole free pass higher than his career average. And it’s been problematic of late as well with three or more walks in five of his last six games. But it’s not all doom and gloom. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine on the season (a career high) and gets a choice matchup against the White Sox. Chicago strikes out 26% of time against righties this season and rank 3rd to last in wOBA in that split. Nola is a whopping -255 home favorite and the clear cash game pitcher for Saturday’s main slate.

Kyle Gibson FD 8100 DK 8900
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 32.38 DK - 16.86
Gibson isn’t too far behind Nola in terms of win odds on Saturday with Minnesota opening as -220 home favorites against the Royals. Kansas City is slightly better than the White Sox, but it isn’t by much and Gibson is coming considerably cheaper than Nola. The former has worked more strikeouts into his repertoire in the last two years and this season is K-ing more than a batter an inning. His 3.67 xFIP is excellent and he continues to induce groundballs at around a 50% rate. This is a good spot for the righty and though the over/under is a bit high (10) the price is right on Gibson. I’m definitely interested to see what changes the Astros make with Aaron Sanchez (FD $6600 DK $5300). They have success taking pitching reclamation projects making them viable (or awesome) MLB starters.

Catcher/First Base

Howie Kendrick FD 2500 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - ARI
FD - 8.92 DK - 6.93
Even in mostly a platoon basis, Kendrick has put up an excellent season, maybe his best to date with an OPS hovering around .900, and 12 home runs (career high is 18) in *just* 275 plate appearances. He’s very tough to strikeout at only 13.8% and is raking lefties to a 141 wRC+ and .932 OPS in that split. That bodes well for his matchup against the lefty Alex Young on Saturday who comes in with a well below average K rate and rough underlying peripherals.

Marwin Gonzalez FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.24
First base isn’t all that deep a position on the Saturday main slate meaning we can probably take some savings and pay down even for a lower-in-the-order guy like Marwin. The Twins have shuffled things around of late and he’s hitting around the 7th-slot, but we can still get him for cheaper on both sites with a mid-700’s OPS and a little bit of pop in the bat (12 home runs). Again, it’s not an overwhelming case, but I’m not liking much about this position on Saturday.

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - PIT (Chris Archer) Park - PIT
FD - 10.41 DK - 7.97
No doubt about it, Cano has had a rough season and the OPS is sitting under .700. He’s striking out more than at any other time in his career and the power might be sapped. But on Saturday he gets Chris Archer who’s given up nine earned runs in his last 11 innings and really struggles with the walks. As long as the Mets insist on hitting Cano in the middle of the lineup, we can continue playing him at these prices because of the plate appearance expectation and, in this case, matchup.

Jose Altuve FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 14.33 DK - 11.1
Altuve is going to cost you more for sure, but we might not be in a spot where we’re paying up for pitching making some of these Houston bats palatable. Altuve remains one of the best hitters against lefty pitchers that you’ll ever see. Over his career, he has a 151 wRC+ and .908 OPS in that split over more than 1200 plate appearances. Marco Gonzales brings in a 5.00 xFIP and sub-7 K rate which means Altuve is a near lock for contact in his plate appearances.

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 4100 DK 5400
Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - SF
FD - 15.06 DK - 11.43
I know he’s facing a decent pitcher in Madison Bumgarner, but the latter is a lefty and this game is popping off in Coors. That’s putting Story in play. Dude just absolutely crushes lefty pitching and though this season he’s worked toward some more platoon neutral numbers, there’s no denying the career stats. Against southpaws, Story has a .995 OPS and 143 wRC+. These are just elite numbers and the Rockies come in with a 6.34 implied run line. It’s enough to consider paying up for Story in this spot.

Jonathan Villar FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Pannone) Park - TOR
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.94
While really not all that good at *real* baseball, Villar remains a viable fantasy option because he has a few things working for him. Even on a bad team, he’s stuck in the leadoff spot which gives him the plate appearance expectation. On top of that there’s some power (13 home runs) and plenty of speed (23 stolen bases) which make up for the lack of on-base skills. His low .700’s OPS isn’t anything to with home about, but we don’t need to because the counting stats make up the difference.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 15.12 DK - 11.4
Much like Altuve, this is a spot to pay up for the Astros who can crush lefty pitching and Bregman is one of those dudes. Bregman has now put together back-to-back elite seasons and the highly touted prospect has been every bit as advertised. He has a mid-.900’s OPS over the last two years. This season he’s walking at an 18% clip and for his career has a .955 OPS and .396 wOBA against southpaws. I love stacking Astros on Saturday with the top of the order so righty heavy against the low-K Gonzales.

Nolan Arenado FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - SF
FD - 14.95 DK - 11.26
Speaking of dudes who kills lefties in great spots on Saturday, we get our man Arenado facing Bum in Coors. Dude is having another Colorado-fueled season at the plate getting paid for it with a contract extension. He’s mashed lefties over his career with some eye-popping splits. He has a career 1.008 OPS, .286 ISO and .416 wOBA in that platoon. When the Rockies are projected for runs against lefties it’s such a tough spot to think about fading Arenado. Things are no different on Saturday.

Outfield

George Springer FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.11
The final piece of our Astros’ stack, Springer has dealt with his own injury issues this season but when he’s been on the field the numbers are elite. He has a .975 OPS through 355 plate appearances with 25 home runs and a 12% walk rate. For his career, he’s about 100 OPS point higher against lefties with a .389 wOBA and 151 wRC+. This is a case of us mostly being able to afford these Houston bats because we aren’t forced to pay through the nose for pitching.

Scott Kingery FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.06
He should be in the leadoff spot against the lefty Detwiler on Saturday and that, plus his 2019 success, has these prices looking like values. He’s a high-800’s OPS guy on the season thanks to the 13 home runs. Look, there’s plenty of run-hot in his numbers considering the .362 BABIP and 18% Hr/FB rate. So I do think there’s some regression coming his way, but the spot in the lineup helps to make up for some of that considering the plate appearance expectation.

Nelson Cruz FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 13.99 DK - 10.53
Dude might be in his age-39 season, but it isn’t showing at all. He has a .979 OPS with a career-best 11% walk rate, and 26 home runs in only 344 plate appearances. He’s been platoon neutral this season (equally awesome against both hands) but for his career is significantly better against the lefties. On Saturday he’ll face Danny Duffy who owns a 5.04 xFIP and strikes out eight batters per inning. Vegas thinks there’s plenty of runs in the Twins bats on Saturday and Cruz could be at the center of it.

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