DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/1/19

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Pitchers

Early
Zack Wheeler FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 34.32 DK - 18.06
Michael Pineda FD - P 9300 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA
FD - 28.58 DK - 14.62

Despite only four games on the early slate(three on FanDuel), I really don't mind the pitching options. Let's start with Zach Wheeler who didn't end up getting traded yesterday and will now make his 21st start of the season. Things have been very up and down for Wheeler who enters with a 4.71 xFIP but the good news is that the xFIP(3.84) is almost a full run lower to go with his above-average 26% K rate and he is also allowing a low 33.9% hard contact rate and an average exit velocity of 87.2 mph (via Baseball Savant).

Michael Pineda has a fairly rough start to the season(6.21 ERA/5.08 xFIP first six starts) but has been solid since allowing more than three earned runs in just one of his last 14 starts(3.62 ERA/4.30 xFIP). He has also seen a slight increase in K rate(23.6%) in that time with a low 4.8% walk rate and 1.07 WHIP.

Both pitchers have plus matchups today as Wheeler is a -160 favorite going up against the White Sox who have a 26% K rate and 84 wRC+ against righties and have struggled with a 67 wRC+ and 29% K rate over the last 14 days overall. Pineda sits as a -155 favorite against arguably the league's worst offense in the Marlins who have a 75 wRC+ and 25% K rate against righties and a 54 wRC+ and 27% K rate over the last 14 days. Both pitchers are in play in all formats today.

Main

Clayton Kershaw FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10700
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - LAD
FD - 36.86 DK - 19.93

On the main slate, while Gerrit Cole has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season I will be riding with Clayton Kershaw for a couple of reasons. He is a slightly bigger favorite(-195), in a game with a total(7.5) a full run lower, and he also gets the much better matchup. While Cole faces a red-hot Indians team that is striking out under 20% over the last few weeks, Kershaw gets the Padres who have been league average in terms of wRC+(101) against southpaws but have struck out over 25% of the time in the split. I will have exposure to both pitchers in GPP formats but lean Kershaw in cash games tonight.

Also Consider: Asher Wojciechowski(BAL) as a DraftKings SP2 option who has been very impressive in his last two starts going at least seven innings in both while limiting the Red Sox and Angels to a combined four hits while striking out 16 and walking just three

Catcher/First Base

Early
Jason Castro FD - C 2600 DK - C 3800
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA
FD - 7.39 DK - 5.58
Marwin Gonzalez FD - 1B 2800 DK - 3B/OF 3500
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.82

The day starts with a small four-game slate(three games on FanDuel) which automatically puts emphasis on finding value and I will be turning to the Twins who are a Top 3 team in almost every offensive category and split. At catcher, with a day game after night game, I expect Jason Castro to get the nod and while his opportunities are limited as the backup, he has had a heck of a July with a .416 wOBA and 162 wRC+ on the back of four multi-hit efforts in 10 starts. Marwin Gonzalez is nothing more than a punt to get more Twins exposure and allow you to pay up for one or both top pitchers. He lacks upside but does have hits in 11 of his last 14 games so it's not a total loss of fantasy points.

Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins(PHI)
Main
Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4200 DK - 1B 5100
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - ATL
FD - 13.47 DK - 10.21
Brian McCann FD - C 2600 DK - C 3700
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - ATL
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.08

On the main slate, I will be turning to the Braves as one of my top teams to target in all formats. The matchup doesn't look the most appealing on paper considering DeSclafani has allowed just seven earned runs over his last five starts but he is still giving up a ton of hard contact(41.8%) and has given up multiple home runs in six of his starts this season. At catcher, the price on McCann has started to come up but the way he is playing, he is more than worth it. He comes into tonight with hits in three straight and nine of his last 10 games with three doubles and two home runs.

We can't talk Braves without mentioning Freddie Freeman who has easily been one of the most consistent hitters once again in 2019 as he enters the night with a .308/.401/.564 slash line and has eclipsed the 20 home run mark for the four straight and seventh time in his career. Combine all that with the fact DeSclafani really struggles with lefties(5.49 xFIP & a .385 wOBA/.564 SLG against) and we have one of the top raw points plays on the slate and safe in all formats.

Also Consider:  Yuli Gurriel(HOU) who has been scorching hot with a .520 wOBA, 238 wRC+, .447 ISO over the last month

Second Base

Early
Cesar Hernandez FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B 4000
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - PHI
FD - 7.99 DK - 6.19

The options are very limited at shortstop so I am going back to the well with Cesar Hernandez, especially if he is back in the leadoff spot today. Either way, he hasn't been great but consistent with hits in three straight and five of his last six including four multi-hit efforts and faces an inconsistent pitcher in Dereck Rodriguez who has floated between the rotation and bullpen all season and enters with a 4.99 ERA/5.03 xFIP. Like I have mentioned many times with Hernandez, he has strong splits vs. righties(.344 wOBA, 112 wRC+) and is in play in all formats, especially on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.

Also Consider: Scooter Gennett(SF) if he suits up as he started to heat up in his final days as a Red with hits in five of his last seven games
Main
Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B 4200
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - ATL
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.48

There really isn't a ton of teams I am interested in targeting tonight so as I said above, I will be loading up on the Braves, especially the lefties. Ozzie Albies has been up and down all season both with his stats and with his spot in the lineup and the good news tonight is both of those are trending up. He entered Wednesday night with a .304/.354/.522 slash line in the month of July and has been back up in the two-hole for the better part of a week straight now while the salary hasn't quite caught up on either site. He is in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Eric Sogard(TB) who is second base eligible on DraftKings and makes a nice two-man value stack with Duffy hitting 7/8 in the lineup 

Shortstop

Early

Amed Rosario FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 9.73 DK - 7.67

The Mets are the top projected offense on the early slate(5.3 implied runs) and while I will be concentrating on the lefties at the top of the lineup, I like the value with Rosario to get some salary relief to possibly pay up for both pitchers I mentioned above. While he hits down in the lineup for the Mets with uninspiring numbers overall(.277/.318/.444 slash line), he has been red-hot in July with hits in 17 of 21 games good for an elite .368/.422/.566 slash line. Take the savings, ride the hot streak, and load up at other positions.

Also Consider: Jorge Polanco(MIN) as a pay up in GPP formats or Brandon Crawford(SF) as another punt value facing Arrieta who struggles against lefties

Main
Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5400
Opponent - TB (Brendan McKay) Park - BOS
FD - 14 DK - 10.69

With there being so many value plays that stick out, even on a smaller slate, shortstop is a position I am willing to pay up for tonight and Xander Bogaearts is at the top of my list. He has been the teams most consistent hitter from day one leading them with a .400 wOBA, 148 wRC+, and 23 home runs while ranking second in RBI(81) and third in runs scored(85) all of which rival the overall leaders in the league. The matchup is a tougher one to crack as we have seen McKay look very good in two if his first four starts but look terrible in the other two starts and now faces a red-hot Red Sox offense.

Also Consider: Willy Adames(TB) as a punt

Third Base

Early
Miguel Sano FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 5000
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA
FD - 10.44 DK - 7.77
Luis Arraez FD - 3B 2800 DK - 2B/3B 3800
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA
FD - 8.83 DK - 6.76

Here is what I wrote last night:

At third base, there are a pair of Twins I will be targeting and it all depends how much salary you have to spend at the position. My top raw points play is Miguel Sano who has really started to heat with multi-hit games in four of his last six starts and is currently 1 for 1 on Tuesday with a home run. Taking it further, he has posted an impressive .303/.391/.618 slash line since the start of the month and his 161 wRC+ in that time is 6th best among all third basemen. If you need the salary relief, rookie Luis Arraez should most definitely be on your radar tonight as he continues to rake and entered Tuesday night with hits in five straight and 18 of his last 21 games with seven multi-hit efforts, five doubles, and 14 runs scored.

Sano is currently 0 for 2 while the Twins have put up seven runs so I will go back to him in GPP with his all or nothing swing that produces a 37% K rate but .309 ISO and 54% hard contact against right-hand pitching. As for Arraez, I fully expect him to get the start here as well and he makes a nice value at the position.

Also Consider: Pablo Sandoval(SF)

Main
Matt Duffy FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3700
Opponent - BOS (Andrew Cashner) Park - BOS
FD - 8.17 DK - 6.41

Andrew Cashnet has been his usual self since joining the Red Sox via trade allowing 12 earned runs(four home runs) over his first three starts. This has me targeting the Rays offense tonight and for value, I will once again turn to Matt Duffy if you are not paying up for Alex Bregman or Josh Donaldson who are the likely chalk at the position. He isn't going to give us much upside but since making his debut a week ago, Duffy has been consistent with hits in six of seven games. The biggest thing is the salary relief helping us to get up to Kershaw or Cole at starting pitcher.

Also Consider: Tommy Edman(STL) as another value play who has been hitting leadoff in front of Trout

Outfield

Early

Jeff McNeil FD - OF 3300 DK - 2B/OF 4700
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 11.54 DK - 9.01
Michael Conforto FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 11.56 DK - 0

The Mets are the top projected offense on the early slate and in the outfield, I will be focused on the lefties at the top of the order. This is because they are facing rookie Dylan Cease who has not only struggled in a big way in his first four starts(16 earned runs for a 6.86 ERA/5.14 xFIP) but has really struggled against lefties(5.53 xFIP, .386 wOBA/.500 SLG in the splits). On top of the great matchup, it comes down to opportunity and it starts with McNeil who leads off and while the upside is limited he has provided a very high floor with an elite .336 average and .396 on-base percentage over a 92-game sample size. Conforto went into Wednesday night with hits in five of his last six including three multi-hit efforts and while he doesn't hit for anywhere near the same average(.256) as McNeil, he has provided power upside with 21 home runs(one in three straight games). These two Mets bats are my two-man stack in all formats.

Also Consider: Bryce Harper/Adam Haseley(PHI) as top and value tier options

Main
Ender Inciarte FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - ATL
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.54

If you are loading up on Freeman tonight, it is unlikely you can afford Ronald Acuna unless you are stacking Braves with cheap pitching in GPP formats. For cash games, I will turn to Ender Inciarte as a cheap value tonight in the outfield as he comes in hot with multi-hit efforts in four of his last five games and I want as many lefties against DeSlafani as I can get.

Also Consider: George Springer(HOU) or Austin Meadows/Eric Sogard(TB)

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