DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/29/19

Monday's baseball action brings us a game in Coors, the Reds against a dude who's been lit on fire of late and a possible chance to stack the Nationals against a lefty.

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Pitchers

Chris Paddack FD - P 8900 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - SD
FD - 33.06 DK - 18.05
Though he hasn’t been quite as good as his 2.84 ERA would suggest (4.03 xFIP), Paddack still is rocking some fantastic peripherals on the season with a 27% K rate while only walking batters at a 5.6% clip. That’s good for a 4.7:1 K:BB ratio and on Monday he’ll face a bottom-feeding Orioles team rank 25th in wOBA against righties this season. The strike out 23% of the time in that split and just generally stink. This is a great spot for Paddack. There’s no early line on the game presumably because the Padres were deciding on whether he or Lamet would start on Monday. Both MLB and ESPN list Paddack as the guy so we’ll start there.

Caleb Smith FD - P 9400 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - MIA
FD - 33.71 DK - 18.79
Smith plays on the Marlins which is one of the key aspects of his downside. i.e. The team stinks. But it isn’t because of him. He’s had an excellent season with 11 K’s per nine and a 4.04 xFIP. The 3.30 ERA is lower thanks to some run hot around the .232 BABIP. He doesn’t get the best matchup against Arizona on Monday, the Marlins are +100 home underdogs which is about as good as you can ask for them out of Vegas. The park in Miami really helps suppress power all around and Smith is coming cheap because he’ll always struggle to pile up many wins. We aren’t exactly teeming with stud pitchers against weak bats on this slate, so I’m fine trying to pick off some value around the margins.

Strongly consider Jaime Barria (FD $7200 DK $7200) against the Tigers.

Catcher/First Base

Joey Votto FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - CIN
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.17
Look, I know 2017 Joey Votto isn’t walking back through that door. It’s not lost on me that the power has dried up almost completely at this point. And he’s also showing less patience at the plate with the walk rate *falling* to around 11% this season. But he’s still hitting in the middle of the Reds’ lineup in a great park against Jordan Lyles who is fresh off getting completely bombed by the Cardinals, Cubs and Cubs again in three of his last four games. Lyles has allowed 20 ER in his last 13 innings. The Reds as a whole are looking like a great stack on Monday.

Howie Kendrick FD - 1B 2300 DK - 1B/2B 4000
Opponent - ATL (Dallas Keuchel) Park - WSH
FD - 10.36 DK - 8.05
In the Nationals last two games against lefties Kendrick hit in the fifth spot so I’m assuming he’ll be right back there against Dallas Keuchel. The latter’s been fine out of the gate for the Braves since getting signed, but will still struggle to rack up K’s and he is walking close to three batters per nine. Kendrick has tagged lefty pitching this season with a 142 wRC+ and .940 OPS in that split. He’s tougher to strike out at only 17% and hitting in the middle of the order at these prices makes for a solid cash game play.

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD - 2B 2400 DK - 2B 3400
Opponent - ATL (Dallas Keuchel) Park - WSH
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.03
Much like his teammate Kendrick, Dozier is called on to face lefties this season (a little further down the lineup) and he’s put in work in that split. In 94 plate appearances against southpaws Dozier has a .414 wOBA and 1.007 OPS. Small sample size sure, but this is a guy who’s been significantly better against lefties for his career so it exactly out of nowhere. Still coming cheap because of his struggles against righties, Dozier would make for a value play even if hitting closer to the bottom of the lineup.

Max Muncy FD - 2B 4400 DK - 1B/2B 5600
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 16.33 DK - 12.16
It’s going to cost way more to get his salary in considering the game is in Coors, but short of punting away the position this is the spot to spend up at second. This game opens with the Dodgers -145 favorites at a 12.5 over/under for easily the most implied runs on the slate. Muncy is rocking a .900+ OPS this season after his breakout 2018 campaign and the 28 year-old is truly one of the biggest surprise hitters of the last two seasons. He has more home runs in his last two major league seasons than he had combined in 8 minor league seasons. That’s just nuts. It will cost you, but Muncy has as much upside as anyone on the slate.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - ATL (Dallas Keuchel) Park - WSH
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.79
Turner is a better fantasy player than he is a real life player probably, but that’s fine for our purposes. He combines a lot of speed (21 SBs this season) with some power (8 HRs) which are essentially in line with his per plate appearance numbers over the last three seasons. Two numbers heading in the wrong direction with the K’s up and the BBs down which isn’t all that encouraging. But this is still a plus matchup considering Kuechel keeps the ball not he ground (good for Turner) and doesn’t strike batters out at a huge clip.

Andrelton Simmons FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 3700
Opponent - DET (Jordan Zimmermann) Park - LAA
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.78
Simmons isn’t a worldbeater on the fantasy side of things, but he’s coming cheap in a great matchup against Jordan Zimmermann. The latter isn’t as bad as the 7.57 ERA would suggest, but he still stinks with a 5.34 ERA and 6.4 K/9 rate. The Angels are in a great spot as a team and Simmons, with a very low strikeout rate (9.4%) is a great candidate for contact in his early plate appearances.

Third Base

Anthony Rendon FD - 3B 3800 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - ATL (Dallas Keuchel) Park - WSH
FD - 13.93 DK - 10.54
I know we’ve been Nationals-heavy so far with Monday’s picks but we might have saved the best for last with Rendon. He’s putting up a phenomenal season with an OPS over 1K which doesn’t really look fluky at all. He’s so tough to strike out at only 14%, walks 11% of the time, has a 49% hard contact rate and .297 ISO. He’s been slightly better against lefties this season, but is better in the split for his career. Of all the Nationals to pay up for, he’s the one hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Justin Turner FD - 3B 4300 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 15.54 DK - 11.81
I know it’s a righty-righty matchup, but that’s been Turner’s better split over the course of his career. He’s a reverse platoon guy with a wOBA 10 points higher and OPS 25 points higher against righties. Jon Gray can dial up the strikeouts at times, but I’m a little less worried about that here against a patient Dodgers’ team. I’ve recommended a lot of expensive bats, I’m aware of that but we are almost assuredly going cheap with one of our pitchers so it’s a little less problematic.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD - OF 4900 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - DET (Jordan Zimmermann) Park - LAA
FD - 19.81 DK - 14.79
Look, none of the starting pitchers are going to cost you all that much and this slate could be one where we load up on bats both in and out of Coors. And when it comes to paying up for a hitter, there’s almost no better way to go than Trout. For a dude who has basically crushed it since day one, this might be the best season of his career. He whopping 1.100 OPS, walks 18% of the time and is on pace for the most home runs of his career with 34 (career mark is 41, he’ll get there). Trout, against a weak arm like Zimmermann feels like as little variance as you’ll ever get out of rostering a hitter.
Also, quick side note because I’ve become obsessed with tracking Mike Trout’s career WAR. By the end of this season, he’ll be passing the following dudes: Frank Thomas, Rod Carew, Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter and will be in the Top-40 ever. Trout is 27.

Yasiel Puig FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - CIN
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.69
Jesse Winker FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - CIN
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.23
Puig is turning in an excellent season with 22 home runs and 13 stolen bases already in a little less than 400 plate appearances. He’s been platoon neutral so I’m not concerned with the righty-righty matchup against Jordan Lyles because the latter is just getting completely bombed of late. Outside of Coors, Great American Ballpark is the best power park on the slate and Puig is still coming at a relatively decent price.

Winker was out of the lineup on Sunday against a righty, so I suppose we might take a wait-and-see approach with this play depending on the Reds’ decisions. He’s had an acceptable season with a .340 wOBA, 14 home runs and OPS over .800. He has enough patience at the plate with a 10% walk rate. Stacking Reds as a cash play could be the play so you can work in some of the more expensive bats in other places.

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