DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/28/19

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Pitchers

Matthew Boyd FD - P 9700 DK - SP 11400
Opponent - SEA (Tommy Milone) Park - SEA
FD - 37.29 DK - 20.81
I was skeptical of Boyd's hot start to the season, but after 21 starts with a 12 K/9 I probably have to concede that he's fundamentally better than he has been in the past at this point. A hat-tip to FanGraphs, which wrote this article in April that detailed the work Boyd did in the off-season add velocity to his slider. All that work has paid off, and Boyd is now the owner of the 11th highest xFIP in all of baseball among qualified starters. Today he'll get an interesting match-up with the Mariners, who make for a pretty polarizing match-up for opposing left handers. The Seamen have posted the 11th highest wOBA against lefties this year, but have also struck out at the 5th highest rate in the league. Given Boyd's newfound strikeout prowess and the lack of other ace level options in good match-ups, I think he's the first guy on my list for cash games today.

Robbie Ray FD - P 10200 DK - SP 10800
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIA
FD - 37.92 DK - 20.56
If you're looking at our top two pitchers at a similar price point, it's hard to make the case for Robbie Ray. He strikes out slightly fewer batters than Boyd (though he does have a better track record of maintaining absurd K rates), walks more than twice as many, and hasn't gone as deep into games this year. The case for him essentially comes down to the match-up, where the Marlins are .001 OPS points away from being dead last in the Majors against opposing lefties. They don't strike out a ton, though, so I think I'll just take Boyd here regardless. Still, it might be a day where we can roster both on DK, and I'd be open to doing so.

Also considered: Chris Sale, but the risk is obvious given that he's facing the Yankees.

Catcher/First Base

Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3300 DK - C 4400
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - MIL
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.09

J.T. Realmuto FD - C 3100 DK - C 3900
Opponent - ATL (Kevin Gausman) Park - PHI
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.67
Well, it seems like these two are basically the only palatable options at catcher regardless of the day. Today they are priced similarly with similar projections, so I figured I'd lump them together for you to indicate how close this is. Gausman and Quintana have 4.50 and 4.37 xFIPs, respectively, with Gausman striking out more batters while walking more and being more homerun prone. The switch hitting Grandal will be on the worse side of his platoon, but he's only been about .050 OPS points worse against lefties for his career. Realmuto is actually a slight reverse platoon guy, so he prefers to face right handers. Grandal is probably just better at this point, but getting Realmuto against his preferred match-up makes this one awfully close.

Joey Votto FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - CIN
FD - 13.73 DK - 10.29
It's always tricky to re-evaluate our expectations for former stars. No, Votto will not likely return to MVP form any time soon. But is he really the bottom tier guy these prices suggest? I don't think so. While 2017's 1k+ OPS is probably out of reach, last year's OBP heavy .800+ figure is probably attainable. His batted ball profile is almost identical to last year's, so the .025 point drop in batting average shouldn't sustain. He'll also be in a great spot against Lambert here. While many were optimistic for Lambert coming into this season, he doesn't seem quite ready to face Major League hitting, as evidenced by his 6.80 K/9 and 5.93 ERA. I think Votto is a high floor (if not terribly high ceiling) option here.

Mark Canha FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B/OF 4800
Opponent - TEX (Pedro Payano) Park - OAK
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.42

Here's a player whose numbers are all headed in the right direction. Canha has added more walks while reducing his strikeout, and has seen his ISO jump from .200 to .279. He's also a reverse platoon split guy for his career, so facing a righty shouldn't be too troubling here. Especially when that righty is Pedro Payano. FanGraphs didn't seen fit to rank him in the Rangers top 30 prospects coming into this season, and he's coming off of 29 AAA innings of 5.41 ERA ball. The Athletics should have a field day here, and I expect Canha to be featured front and center.

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B 3400
Opponent - PIT (Chris Archer) Park - NYM
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.98

Second base is pretty dicey today (more on that in a minute), but I actually do like Cano quite a bit here. The Mets' second baseman has an .833 OPS in July while striking out just 12.2% of the time, making him one of the higher floor options at the position overall. As for the match-up, it's pretty safe to say that acquiring Chris Archer hasn't gone as well as the Pirates would have hoped. He's still striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, but the 4.38 BB/9 means he's running a LT of deep counts and getting chased from games early. Cano is better against righties as well, making this one look like an easy call at a position that seriously lacks depth.

The rest: The rest of this position is pretty tough. You have a group of actual good hitters that are overpriced or in bad match-ups (Hiura, Altuve, Torres, Muncy, Marte), and then a sea of guys who bat low in their respective orders and generally stink. I'll keep an eye out for Ozzie Albies - if he bats second again he could be worth it.

Shortstop
Marcus Semien FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - TEX (Pedro Payano) Park - OAK
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.25
We already gave you the case against Payano, so let's focus on Semien. One of the most important things we can look for at bad offensive positions is a high floor, and Semien's is probably the highest on the slate from a points per dollar perspective. He bats leadoff, which means he's a shoo-in for lots of plate appearances. He's walking more than 11% of the time this season while striking out just 13% of the time, meaning that he is getting balls in play and getting on base with the very best at the position. He's cheap, so you don't have to invest a ton at a tough position. And with an .806 OPS, he's just legitimately good. I'll be happy to roster him against the terrible Payano.

Trevor Story FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - CIN (Alex Wood) Park - CIN
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.34

Story starts this one with two strikes against him here. He'll be hitting out of Coors, and he's hitting against an actual good pitcher in Alex Wood. So why on Earth are we considering him here? Well, there are a couple of reasons. While Cinci isn't Colorado, it's basically the next best thing in the National League. And while Alex Wood has been good in the past, this is his very first start after a long rehab since joining the Reds. Story is also much better against left handed pitching, which helps his case here as well. I still like Semien for cash games, but Story's power upside is intriguing here.

Also considered: Francisco Lindor, if you can afford it.

Third Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 3B 2900 DK - 3B 3500
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - TOR
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.13
I know we have been calling for Guerrero's breakout all season, but it really looks like we're on the cusp of it now. With a 13.9% BB rate and a 16.5% K rate, he's got one of the best approaches in the entire game. His .733 OPS is already respectable for a 20 year old, and when you consider that he hasn't even tapped into his 80 power yet, things could get scary quickly. Chirinos isn't a terrible pitcher necessarily, but he's nothing special either, and we're really targeting Guerrero as a price play here.

Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 4700
Opponent - TEX (Pedro Payano) Park - OAK
FD - 13.15 DK - 9.91

Another great part of the A's stack today. Chapman is considerably better against left handed pitchers, but as always, the effectiveness of the pitcher is far more important than his handedness. I'll take Chapman and his highly sustainable .880+ OPS all day against a player with stripes like Payano's.

You can't go too wrong with Nolan Arenado against Alex Wood, for the same reasons we liked Story above.

Outfield

Max Kepler FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.22
Kepler is one of the best breakout stories of 2019, going from a solid roleplayer to a borderline superstar in his age 26 season. With 27 home runs and a 3.3 WAR so far, Kepler's price just hasn't caught up to his talent just yet. And then there's Dylan Covey, the most recent in a long line of terrible White Sox pitchers. His 5.57 xFIP would be the worst in the Majors if the White Sox could bear to watch him throw enough innings, and it seems like he's gotten worse from his already uninspiring 2018 campaign. I love stacking the Twins here.

Jesse Winker FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - CIN
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.34
If you can grab Winker batting leadoff against Lambert, he's a terrific high floor option here. He might not be the OBP machine that it looked like he'd be last year, but where he's lost a little on base percentage he's added it back in slugging, and he is still topping an .800 OPS out of the leadoff spot in a positive platoon situation here.

Kyle Schwarber FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - MIL
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.39
We haven't touched on any Cubs yet, so it'd be good to do so before we depart here. Schwarber seems doomed to be a tournament-only guy, but his struggles against lefties make him pretty palatable when you can grab him against a weak righty. With a SLG heavy .800+ OPS against righties this season, Schwarber can do damage in spots where his weakness are mitigated. Zach Davies is certainly one such match-up. With a K/9 below 6 and an xFIP over 5 he's one of the very best match-ups for strikeout heavy guys like Schwarber.

Lorenzo Cain FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - MIL
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.76

You can really play as many right handed Brewers as you'd like today, so feel free to add Braun to this discussion as well. Cain certainly looks like he's declining a bit at this point, with a rising K rate and a falling walkrate. But the major culprit in his tough first half was a BABIP that ran .044 points below his established career levels. He's probably still a true talent 10/30 guy, and that is more than enough for the prices you're paying in a good platoon spot against a mediocre pitcher.

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