Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads back to the Tricky Triangle for the second time for the Gander RV 400 this Sunday afternoon. This time around the track will be adding a layer of the PJ1 compound in an effort to once again create more passing and better overall racing. It will be applied to the high groove in turns one and three and in the middle groove in turn two. Hopefully the race turns out like last week where we saw a whopping 14 drivers make at least 50 green flag passes led by Ryan Newman(90) who had to start from the rear to begin with, had an engine go down that they repaired to get him back on track and ending up with an amazing 7th place finish.
Speaking of the race at New Hampshire last weekend, we saw some very disappointing finishes from from Kyle Larson(33rd), Ricky Stenhouse Jr(36th), Jimmie Johnson(30th), Austin Dillon(32nd), and Clint Bowyer(20th) who are all winless and hovering around the playoff bubble with six races to go in the regular season. Let's take a look in and around the bubble heading into this final stretch(Top 16 make the Playoffs).
13th - Kyle Larson(519 points)
14th - Erik Jones(516 points)
15th - Ryan Newman(509 points)
16th - Clint Bowyer(505 points)
17th - Jimmie Johnson(488 points)
18th - Daniel Suarez(488 points)
From a fantasy perspective, track position is very important as it is one of the highest correlated tracks when looking at start position to finish position. Taking it further we have seen seven of the Top 10 finishers coming from a Top 10 starting position in five of the last six races here. The one race we did see a ton of place differential was the second race here last year where more than a dozen drivers failed inspection and started in the rear. Looking at dominator points, only once in the last six races has a driver led 100 or more laps and in those six races there hs not been multiple drivers to lead 50 or more laps.
The PJ1 compound should help create more passing than we have seen in the past but I will still be concentrating on the cars who will be starting up front for the core of my lineup. The other thing to note about this week when looking at the schedule below is that both practices come before qualifying and all three sessions will happen on Saturday with this being an impound race. That means another week where inspection will happen on race day with no official lineup being known until about 11:30 am ET on Sunday. Buckle up this is what we have been preparing for all along.
Pocono Raceway - Long Pond, PA
Track - 2.5 Mile Tri-Oval
Turn 1 Banking - 14°
Turn 2 Banking - 8°
Turn 3 Banking - 6°
*Rain-shortened race
While it has not always been the case, Kyle Busch has been the most dominant driver in the series here at the Tricky Triangle lately. He has won two straight and three of the last four races here with a series-best 3.0 average and 318 laps led since the start of the 2017 season.
A 22nd place finish here earlier this year ended a streak of five straight Top 5's for Kevin Harvick at the track. He will be looking for back to back wins overall and his first career win at the Tricky Triangle.
Chase Elliott has been very consistent here at Pocono with Top 10 finishes in five straight and six of his seven career trips here in a Cup car. He also holds the second-best career average finish(10.9) of all drivers in the field.
Erik Jones ranks second overall in my pre-practice/qualifying model and it is centered around his track history. He comes back to Pocono with two straight Top 5 finishes and has four Top 10's in five career races here with a series-best 9.6 career average finish.
Brad Keselowski joins Busch and Harvick as the only other drivers with four Top 5's in the last five races here. While he has just one career win here at the Tricky Triangle, he has 10 Top 5's and eleven Top 10's in 19 career races with a 11.2 average finish.
It's a small sample size but William Byron has been solid here at Pocono as well with an 18th, 6th, and 9th place finish in his three career races(11.0 average).
In his rookie season, Denny Hamlin dominated here at Pocono winning both races from the pole position. He followed that up a 6th or better in three straight and after two finishes outside the Top 20, he won back to back races in 2009 and 2010 to lead all active drivers with four wins. He has not had the same success in recent years but does come back with back to back Top 10's and is having one of his best seasons in a while. Look out for the #11.
Kurt Busch(3), Martin Truex Jr(2) and Jimmie Johnson(3) join Hamlin, Kyle Busch as the only other drivers with multiple wins at the track and Johnson leads all active drivers with 740 laps led here.
Things have really spread out in terms of current form with seven different winners in each of the last seven races. During that stretch, Kyle Busch leads all drivers with four Top 5's, a 7.7 average finish, and an average of 58.2 FanDuel/61.2 DraftKings points per race. Right behind Busch in fantasy scoring(47.4 DK/57.6 FD points per race) in this seven-race sample is Ryan Newman who is one of just four drivers with five Top 10's in those races. Joey Logano and Erik Jones are the other two drivers with five Top 10's in those races, Logano one of the drivers with a win and also has 223 laps led(2nd) in that time. Denny Hamlin has four Top 10's in thse last seven races with 138 laps led to sit third behind Busch and Newman in average fantasy scoring(44.7 DK/535.5 FD points per race).
Kyle Busch
Kyle has been absolutely dominant here with wins in two straight and three of the last four races at the Tricky Triangle. He has also won two of the last four races at Indianapolis, a comparable track considering Turn 2 here was built with Indy in mind. Finally, Kyle was one of just five drivers to post a Top 10 time in both practices Saturday and that has led toa very high correlation to finish strong here. He is my top driver in all formats.
Erik Jones
I am sticking in the JGR camp for my second core play and going with the #20, Erik Jones. It starts with track history has he returns to the Tricky Triangle with Top 5 finishes in three straight while finishing Top 10 in five of his seven career races. He also comes in red-hot with back to back third place finishes and has Top 10's in four of his last five races overall. Jones is also one of the six drivers who posted a Top 10 lap in both practices(7th, 1st). At his price, he is my favorite PTS/$ in all formats.
William Byron
Another driver that jumps off the page on both sites when looking at PTS/$ value is William Byron. Not only is he very cheap on both sites despite a 12.8 average finish over the last six races(11th best), he returns to Pocono with some solid track history having finished 18th in his first Cup race here followed by back to back Top 10's. Another Top 10 looks to be in the cards this week as the #24 car was lightning fast in practice as he ranked 2nd in the opening session and 4th in Happ Hour. Fire up Byron in all formats.
Matt DiBenedetto
Almost the exact situation as last week as Matty D has an extremely fast #95 car but returns to a track he doesn't have the best history but the good news is that he did post a career-best 17th here earlier this year. He did that running just the opening practice and finishing with the 26th fastest lap. This week is a different story as he is one of those six drivers to rank Top 10 in both practices(10th, 3rd). I won't talk myself off him this week(lol).
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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