DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/25/19

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Pitchers

Jose Berrios FD - P 9300 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW
FD - 35.4 DK - 18.67

We have a smaller six-game slate on Thursday night so let's focus on the pitching duel between Jose Berrios and Lucas Giolito. I am leaning Berrios here, at least for cash games, for a couple of reasons starting with the fact the Twins are early -145 favorites and the Twins offense is much more dangerous than the White Sox who have an ugly 73 wRC+ and 28% K rate since the All-Star break. Berrios doesn't provide the same upside as Giolito from a strikeout perspective but has been very consistent holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight(2.53 ERA) while averaging over six innings per start in the sample size. I will have exposure in all formats tonight.

Catcher/First Base

Matt Olson FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - OAK
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.32
Mark Canha FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B/OF 4500
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - OAK
FD - 10.55 DK - 7.98

While the Yankees are the clear #1 team tonight in terms of implied runs, Oakland may be my favorite from a PTS/$ perspective, especially if considering a two top pitcher approach on DraftKings. The biggest thing tonight is the matchup against Ariel Jurado who has split time in the bullpen and in the rotation but has given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts and sits with a 4.92 ERA/4.89 xFIP on the season. It starts with Matt Olson who has been scorching hot since the ASB with hits in 11 of 12 games and has plenty of power upside with 21 home runs on the season. Canha has been consistent all season(considering the price) with a .376 OBP and 142 wRC+ and has also been hot since the ASB with hits in 10 of 12 games. I will have exposure to both players in all formats tonight.
Roberto Perez FD - C 2700 DK - C 3500
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.36

At catcher, I will be focusing on Roberto Perez who leads the way in the PTS/$ rankings at the position at a value price on both sites. Where the real value rests tonight is in the splits as Perez is below average against righties(.312 wOBA, 90 wRC+) but has been tremendous against southpaws posting a .372 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and .272 ISO in the split. Miek Montgomery spent the entire season in the pen for the Cubs before being traded to the Royals where he struggled in his first start giving up six hits and five earned runs in just two innings and if he doesn't go deep again, the Royals own a bottom 10 bullpen this season adding to the overall value.

Also Consider: Edwin Encarnacion(NYY) in GPP formats or Danny Santana(TEX) on FanDuel at a nice price differential value

Second Base

David Fletcher FD - 2B 2700 DK - 3B/OF 4000
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - LAA
FD - 8.57 DK - 6.74
Luis Rengifo FD - 2B 2500 DK - 2B/SS 3500
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - LAA
FD - 7.01 DK - 5.37

The second base position is not great tonight so I will be looking at the value bats for the Angels who get a plus matchup tonight. They will face Tom Eshelman who, like literally every other O's starter, has struggled and has given up nine earned runs(five home runs) in his last two starts. Like I always mention about targeting bad pitchers, if you want even more upside target a bad pitcher on a team with a bad bullpen. Good news as the O's have the worst bullpen in baseball in terms of season ERA(6.12) and HR/FB rate(18.7%). Fletcher stands out the most when talking about safety and cash games as he gets the most opportunity hitting leadoff and enters tonight with hits in four straight and has posted a .304./.368/.449 slash line since the start of July. Rengifo hits down in the lineup but offers some added salary relief and has been decent with hits in four of his last five games.

Also Consider: DJ LeMahieu(NYY) on DraftKings where he is eligible at both second and third base or Nicky Lopez(KC) if you want to outright punt the position

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 12.41 DK - 9.5

There is a tough decision to be made on DraftKings tonight with Lindor in a good matchup as well but I lean Didi overall with the big price differential on FanDuel. Hard not to get as much exposure to the Yankees as you can considering they have scored 85 runs since the All-Star break(6.5 per game) and are loaded from top to bottom of the lineup. Gregorius got a late start to the season due to injury and has been up and down overall but red-hot lately with eight hits and 10 RBI over his last two games bringing his average very close to.300 on the season. In a plus matchup against Rick Porcello, Didi is my to shortstop in all formats.
J.P. Crawford FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Drew VerHagen) Park - DET
FD - 8.67 DK - 6.62

If you are looking for a cheap option at the position, J.P. Crawford checks enough boxes. The former first round pick came over from the Phillies after not progressing the way the organization would have hoped and good news for is that the Mariners were willing to give him a shot. He hasn't been great this season but has bee solid considering the price as he has posted a .261 average and .338 on-base percentage. That isn't going to win you any GPP's but he does provide us opportunity hitting second in the lineup and that is all we can ask for in the value range.

Also Consider: Marcus Semien(OAK) in all formats

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - OAK
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.66

I talked about the A's at first base and my favorite on the team is Matt Chapman, especially on Fanduel where he leads all third basemen in PTS/$ in our system. I mentioned the matchup against Jurado who is really struggling lately and the other thing that stands out is that he has reverse splits giving up a .366 wOBA and .532 SLG to righties. That is great news for Chapman who has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .372 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and .243 ISO on the season. The decision is a lot closer on DratKings but at his mid $3K price tag on FanDuel, he is a lock in all formats for me tonight.
Jose Ramirez FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.31

As you can probably tell I am focusing most of my attention on three teams when building lineups tonight with the Indians one of them and Jose Martinez is near the top of the list. After back to back excellent seasons, he struggled early this year and while the overall numbers make you wanna throw up, especially in season-long(I own a lot of shares) the good news is that he has come on strong recently. Going back to the middle of June, he has posted an impressive .310/.353/.563 slash line with six home runs, 26 RBI, and 25 runs scored while also adding that speed upside with six stole bases. For cash games, it makes sense to ride with Chapman but JRam will most definitely be in my GPP builds tonight, and could be very low owned on FanDuel at $4K.

Outfield

Aaron Judge FD - OF 4600 DK - OF 5600
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 16.08 DK - 11.94
Aaron Hicks FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 13.72 DK - 10.32
Mike Tauchman FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - BOS
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.05

The Yankees are the consensus top team when looking at implied runs(5.8) and it makes sense as they face Rick Porcello who is in the midst of his worst season as a major-leaguer. He has given up four or more earned runs in five straight and seven of his last nine starts with two of those coming against the Yankees(6 & 5 ER) and enters the night with a 5.61 ERA and equally as bad 5.33 xFIP. If you can afford him, Aaron Judge is my top choice on the team as he has returned to form since returning from injury(June 21) posting a .326/.463/.581 slash line with six home runs and 17 RBI. If you need some salary relief but still want a core of Yankees consider Aaron Hicks, especially on FanDuel, who has been hitting in the top third of the lineup and has been scorching hot since the All-Star break with hits in eight of 11 games(six multi-hit efforts) for a .300/.364/.575 slash line. If you want even more salary relief, go with Mike Tacuhman who has been getting added playing time with Brett Gardner out of the lineups. He too has been hot with multi-hit games in three straight and hits in nine of his last 11 overall. There is a ton of ways to get Yankees in your lineup and Tauchman also correlates well with a wrap around to add some separation in ownership.
Jordan Luplow FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - KC
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.62

Overall, as a team, the Indians numbers are actually worse against left-handed pitching but that do have some bats with strong splits that we can consider tonight. I talked about Roberto Perez at catcher above and Jordan Luplow also fits the mold here. He has been very streaky overall but enters tonight with an eye-popping .445 wOBA, 180 wRC+, and .372 ISO against southpaws and faces a struggling one in Mike Montgomery. He is only likely to get a couple of at-bats at most against him as Montgomery is on a pitch count but the Royals also have a bottom ranked bullpen as well which helps. At these prices, he is in play in all formats.

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