DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/4/19

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Pitchers

Early
Brandon Woodruff FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9400
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN
FD - 33.38 DK - 17.76

We have a very interesting Independence Day ahead of us with so many different slates but for the early slate, I am looking at Brandon Woodruff as my top option. After spending most of 2018 in the bullpen, he is back as a full-time starter for the Brewers and has been tremendous with a 10-2 record backed up by a 3.79 ERA/3.38 xFIP and 29% K rate. Despite pitching in Great American today, he gets a plus matchup against a bottom 10 Reds offense that has been worse against righties with a .303 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and 24 % K rate. It comes down to price as he is sub $10K on both sites and my top pitcher in all formats.

Also Consider: Anibal Sanchez(WAS) for the very early slate in a great matchup against the Marlins
Main
Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 10800 DK - SP 11100
Opponent - SD (Dinelson Lamet) Park - LAD
FD - 40.11 DK - 22.13

Ryu is coming off his worst start of the season and it came in Coors where even the most elite pitchers are getting beat up. Speaking of elite status, Ryu leads the league with an eye-popping 1.83 ERA and backs it up with the third-best xFIP(3.06) as well. He is finding a ton of success with an above average fastball(42% usage) and elite changeup(29% usage) that opponents have hit just .185 on and is also producing an elite 18.8% swinging strike rate. The matchup is definitely not jumping off the page as the Padres have been better lately overall and have also been better against lefties but the upside is there as they do strike out(25.6%) much more in the split. The other options on this small slate don't really pop for me so I will a ton of exposure to Ryu in all formats.

Also Consider: Lance Lynn(TEX)

Catcher/First Base

Early
Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 4600
Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - PIT
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.59
Jason Castro FD - C 2600 DK - C 3800
Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - OAK
FD - 8.54 DK - 6.45

If you have the salary on the early slate, Josh Bell is the easy play but also very expensive so I will reserve for GPP lineups only. For the most part, I will be pivoting to Anthony Rizzo who comes much cheaper and while he hasn't been nearly as consistent he has been solid with a .269/.379/.515 slash line with 19 home runs. He also gets a plus matchup against Jordan Lyles who hasn't been a complete disaster but consistently bad giving up three or more earned runs in five straight and home runs in four straight. On top of that, he has really struggled against lefties giving up a .284 average, .376 wOBA, and .532 SLG. I will be using Rizzo in all formats.

At catcher, I like Jason Castro who gets a plus matchup against Tanner Anderson and has crushed in the split against righties(.383 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 53% hard contact rate).

Also Consider: Daniel Vogelbach(SEA) as high-upside GPP pivot
Main
Matt Beaty FD - 1B 2400 DK - 1B/OF 3500
Opponent - SD (Dinelson Lamet) Park - LAD
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.5

On an even smaller slate tonight, value is a must and one way I will be going is with Matt Beaty at first base. I like the Dodgers in general tonight going up against Dinelson Lamet who is making his first start in the majors since 2017. He has shown a ton of upside pre and post injury but has also been prone to the home run. Beaty hasn't really stood out in any one area in his rookie season but has been solid hitting .289 and only strikes out 14% of the time. I like more on FanDuel with the utility spot but if he gets another start near the top of the lineup he is in play in all formats on both sites.

Also Consider:  Justin Smoak(TOR)

Second Base

Early

Second base is somewhat of an eye-soar on the early slate today so it's likely best to wait and see what pops up for value near the top of the order, if possible. Right now, Gleyber Torres would be the pay up as he easily has the best daily splits(.387 wOBA, 143 wRC+, .262 ISO vs. RH) in the top tier but since the Yankees have gotten healthy he has moved down near the bottom of the order. I talk about the Twins a ton in this article and if he is starting again, I like Luis Arraez at a value price on both sites and if you straight want to punt, I will be using Harold Castro is he starts.

Main

The second base is even tougher on the main slate with two fewer games(four teams) to pick from. If you are going with a value pitching approach, it makes sense to pay up for Max Muncy who provides a ton of power(20 HR, 58 RBI) but has also been fairly consistent as well with a .276 average and .379 on-base percentage. After Muncy, I like the Blue Jays combo of Eric Sogard and Cavan Biggio who will both likely be hitting in the top four of the lineup. Sogard would be my choice in cash games as he has been more consistent while Biggio has provided a ton more power, especially against righties where he has a .328 ISO in the split. If you want to straight punt on this slate, I would consider Brock Holt.

Shortstop

Early
Jorge Polanco FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - OAK
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.25

The Twins sit with the highest implied run total(5.4) on the early slate, almost a half run higher than the Cubs in second. That makes them easily my top team to target and it starts with Jorge Polanco who has been the most consistent bat on this league-leading Twins offense as he entered Wednesday with a sparkling .319/.377/.518 slash line. he is a switch hitter and most of the damage has come against righties this season where he sits with an elite .401 woBA, 152 wRC+, and .249 ISO in the split. The final piece of the puzzle is the matchup against young Tanner Anderson who not only struggled in AAA(6.26 ERA/6.08 xFIP) this season but has also had a time of it since being called up as he has given up 21 hits and 14 earned runs in his first four starts(17.2 IP). Fire up Polanco in all formats.

Also Consider: Kevin Newman(PIT) especially on FanDuel in the low $3K range
Main
Freddy Galvis FD - SS 2900 DK - SS 4000
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - TOR
FD - 8.32 DK - 6.46

The Jays are one of five teams projected for five or more runs and shortstop is not a position I am feeling good about paying up for so I will go the value route with Galvis. He is coming off a 3 for 3 outing last night when he got a shot to leadoff and while the overall numbers don't stand out(.264/.302/.450) he has been much better lately with hits in 17 of his last 20 games. All things considered, Galvis is in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Elvis Andrus(TEX)

Third Base

Early
Yandy Diaz FD - 3B 3700 DK - 1B/3B 4900
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - TB
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.37

I mentioned it earlier in the season that Diaz is finally getting a shot to play every day and making the most of his opportunity with a .285/.359/.498 slash line over 62 games(273 at-bats). I normally wouldn't be paying this much for him but he checks enough boxes to garner my attention. First of all, he has crushed lefties to the tune of a .408 wOBA, 162 wRC+, .257 ISO, and 51 % hard contact and faces a pitcher in Happ who is having a down year and has already allowed 20 home runs against(16 to RH batters) and a 43% hard contact rate to righties. The chalk play will be going with Bryant who is $400 cheaper on DraftKings but I like the pivot to Diaz who is likely 5-10% less owned.

Also Consider: Kris Bryant(CHC) or Marwin Gonzalez(MIN)
Main
Rafael Devers FD - 3B 4300 DK - 3B 5300
Opponent - TOR (Marcus Stroman) Park - TOR
FD - 11.72 DK - 8.91
David Fletcher FD - 3B 2700 DK - 3B/OF 3600
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 8.92 DK - 7.02

At third base, I will be paying right up for Devers who has been scorching-hot with hits in 16 of his last 18 games including 10 multi-hit efforts pushing his slash line up to .329/.378/.548 for the season. He is also been hitting 2nd in the lineup for about a week now giving him extra implied at-bats adding to the overall raw points projection. As of now, there is not a whole lot to like in the mid-range whether it is a bad splits or pitcher matchup so I will turn to salary relief with David Fletcher. He isn't flashy and has minimal upside but has been consistent with a .287 average and he also strikes out a league-low 7.1%(qualified hitters) leading to a .353 on-base percentage. He normally hits down in the order and clearly gets a huge boost if back up near the top of the lineup but is still in play in either way.

Outfield

Early
Max Kepler FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - OAK
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.25

As you can probably tell I will have a ton of exposure to the Twins on this early slate and Kepler is right near the top of the list if he is back in the leadoff spot. He hasn't been your prototypical leadoff guy with a .268 average and .342 on-base percentage but he has been producing at an elite level when looking at the power numbers. He entered Wednesday with already a career-high in home runs(21) and it won't be long until he is there with RBI as well. I mentioned the matchup above with Polanco but didn't mention the splits as Tanner Anderson's kryptonite has been southpaws as he is giving up a .473 wOBA, .730 SLG, and 69% hard contact in the split.

Also Consider: Jason Heyward/Kyle Schwarber(CHC) or Nicholas Castellanos(DET)
Main
Lourdes Gurriel FD - OF 3700 DK - 2B/OF 5500
Opponent - BOS (Rick Porcello) Park - TOR
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.84

We can't talk Blue Jays offense without hitting that lock button on Lourdes Gurriel. Since being recalled from AAA on May 24, Gurriel has been one of the most productive fantasy players in the league with an elite .355/.401/.739 slash line with 14 home runs, 27 RBI, and 32 runs scored across those 36 games. While he has beast-moded against southpaws, he has more than held his own against righties as well with a .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, and 264 ISO in the split. On top of all that, he gets a plus matchup against a struggling Rick Porcello who has given up 11 earned runs over his last two starts and four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts. Gurriel comes at a premium on DraftKings but FanDuel hasn't fully caught up and that is where his best value comes tonight.

Also Consider: Alex Verdugo/Joc Pederson(LAD) at the top of the Dodgers order or Nick Markakis(ATL) for a value play

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