DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/3/19

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Pitchers

Chris Sale FD - P 11200 DK - SP 11800
Opponent - TOR (Undecided) Park - TOR
FD - 43.33 DK - 25.05

It has been a love/hate relationship with Chris Sale this season. I absolutely love the K upside as he has tallied double-digit totals in nine of his last 11 starts but hate that he gets touched up at times and has given up six or more hits in three straight vs. the Orioles, these Blue Jays, and the White Sox. The young Jays lineup has been much better lately but still striking out 24% of the time over the last 14 days and are well below average against lefties with a .303 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and 24% K rate in the split. The price is near its peak for the season on both sites but Sale is arguably the best pitcher on the slate(honorable mention to Buehler & Strasburg) and should be considered in all formats.

John Means FD - P 8600 DK - SP 8400
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - TB
FD - 23.3 DK - 11.58
For value on the slate, I will once again turn to John Means who is having an incredible start to the season and will represent the Orioles at the All-Star game. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts(3, 3, 4 in the other three starts) and he appears to be massively overperforming(2.50 ERA/5.14 xFIP) not all regression stats agree. Looking at the Baseball Savant data, you can quickly see why I don't think he will regress as much. He is allowing a low 87.5 mph exit velo(272nd), 32% hard contact rate, and even the xwOBA only sits at .306 on the season and it comes down to his elite changeup that he throws 27% of the time. I will be using him as my SP2 in all formats on DraftKings and if you like to load up on bats, he can also be considered in all formats on FanDuel(I prefer GPP tonight).

Also Consider: Walker Buehler(LAD) as a GPP pivot in the top tier or Yonny Chirinos(TB) as another value option 

Catcher/First Base

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI
FD - 13.88 DK - 10.52

Coors Field slates tend to make things interesting from an ownership standpoint, especially when there have been 82 runs scored there over the last five games(16 per game!!!!). That gives us an opportunity to pivot to some very good players and possibly get some low ownership on them and tonight, there are a ton of alternatives. At first base, I debated between Freeman and breakout star, Josh Bell, and I will have exposure to both but likely a bit more of Freeman due to the much high er game total(11 to 8) and implied runs(5.8 to 4.0).

Freeman is one of the most consistent bats in the game and is actually having close to a career season as he enters tonight with a .309/.395/.585 slash line with 22 home runs and 65 RBI. He also gets an elite matchup against Nick Pivetta who has given up 14 earned runs in his last three starts which also includes seven home runs against. Fire up Freeman in all formats.
Edwin Encarnacion FD 4100 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 9.08 DK - 6.76

Encarnacion is now a member of the Yankees and is likely to continue to see lots of playing time with Luke Voit being placed on the IL on Tuesday. I don't love the matchup against Jason Vargas who continues to overperform with a 3.66 ERA(5.09 xFIP) but the good news is that he has given up a home run in three straight starts and EE leads the American League with 24 on the season. I will be going elsewhere in cash games but for GPP's, I love Encarnacion at a slightly lower price and projected very low ownership.

Also: Consider: Josh Bell(PIT) who is on an MVP pace and faces Yu Darvish who has struggled much more against lefties(.354 wOBA, .515 SLG against)

Second Base

Adam Frazier FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - CHC (Yu Darvish) Park - CHC
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.43

It feels a bit like chasing points considering Frazier has gone 9 for 10 in his return to the leadoff spot over the last couple days. What stands out more than that is the price as he is in the value range especially on DraftKings and as I mentioned above with Bell, Yu Darvish really struggles against left-handed bats. Take the discount in the middle infield and load up on the power bats at other positions.
Keston Hiura FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Sonny Gray) Park - CIN
FD - 8.88 DK - 6.8

On DraftKings, I will just take the $400 discount and roll with Frazier but on FanDuel, a case can be made for Hiura. After going hitless in his return to the majors, the Brewers top prospect is finding consistency and enters tonight with hits in four straight games. It has been a small sample this season but Hiura has shown us a ton of upside with six home runs and before you discount those numbers consider that he has 19 in AAA this season in just 57 games. The only knock here is that he is hitting much farther down in the order but that should guarantee a low ownership in all formats.

Also Consider: Jose Altuve(HOU) in Coors or Luis Arraez(MIN) as another value play at the position

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - COL
FD - 17.72 DK - 13.44

Story made his return from the IL last night and went 2 for 5 with two K's in a 9-8 loss in game one of a series against the Astros. He is going to be hard to avoid tonight as he is the 11th most expensive SS on DraftKings and the sixth most expensive on FanDuel and this is likely the lowest we see his price the rest of the season. He also rakes against left-handed pitching with a .376 wOBA, 117 wRC+ and whopping 50% hard contact rate. He will be one of the first players I lock into my lineups in all formats.
Paul DeJong FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 3800
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.47

After a hot start, Dejong has fallen off big time but that also means his price has dropped making him a buy-low GPP play that is likely very low owned as well. He has been better against lefties but is still league-average against righties(.332 wOBA, 105 wRC+) and gets a plus matchup as well. He and the Cards face Mike Leake who is in the middle of one of his worst seasons with a 4.63 ERA/4.64 xFIP and has already given up 23 home runs(18% HR/FB) with a career-high 43.5% hard contact rate. I am pretty much locked into Story in cash games but love going the less traveled route and pivoting to DeJong in GPP formats tonight.

Also Consider: Jorge Polanco(MIN) as a high floor play with a .319/.377/.518 slash line and hits in 28 of his last 30 games

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4600 DK 5300
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - HOU
FD - 16.99 DK - 12.79

While Arenado is the most expensive player at third tonight, he is only $100 more than LeMahieu in a much better matchup considering opponent, park, and implied runs. Miley is a near-elite ground ball pitcher but the best pitchers in the game have been rendered mortals in Coors lately with 82 runs combined over this last five games. Arenado Kills lefties and with a full slate there should be more than enough value plays allowing you to stack Arenado with Story in all formats if that is the route you choose to go tonight.
David Fletcher FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - TEX
FD - 8.77 DK - 6.9

For value at the position, I will be turning to David Fletcher who should be back in the leadoff spot tonight with Tommy La Stella day to day with a shin contusion. Fletcher may not be flashy with a .287 average and just five home runs, but he provides consistency at the top of the order as he leads the league with an elite 7% K rate which has helped him to a .353 OBP on the season with 42 runs scored. While he may not seem like much of a value on DraftKings($4K), he is the 21st priced player at the position.

Also Consider: Rafael Devers(BOS)

Outfield

Michael Brantley FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - COL
FD - 15.8 DK - 12.17
Josh Reddick FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - COL
FD - 13.23 DK - 10.13

We have yet to talk about the Astros despite them sitting at the top of the implied run projections tonight in Coors Field. I more or less think of it as a no brainer with players like Altuve, Springer, and Bregman. They were able to get to a good pitcher in German Marquez last night and get a much better matchup tonight against rookie, Peter Lambert, who has struggled a ton lately allowing 16 earned runs over his last three starts which includes six home runs while only striking out six batters. The reason I list these two hitters is because of Lambert's splits as he has given up a .469 wOBA, .804 SLG, 56% hard contact to lefties. Brantley is my top choice as he hits cleanup and is having a very productive season with a .313/.372/.491 slash line and comes in with hits in five straight and seven of his last eight games. Reddick hasn't been as good overall(.301/.338/.448) but has also been red-hot with hits in eight straight going into last night's o-fer. Fire both players up in all formats.
Alex Verdugo FD 3500 DK 4100 
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - LOS
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.67
Joc Pederson FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - LOS
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.2

The top of the Dodgers order let me down last night but I am going right back to the well tonight. Pederson has been a very unique leadoff hitter hitting just .241 on the season but has provided a ton of upside with 20 home runs and a 127 wRC+ on the season. Verdugo has been much more consistent in his first full season in the bigs as he enters tonight with a .306/.357/.498 slash line and sub 10% K rate. Of the two, I do like Verdugo better for cash but will stack them together with Bellinger and whoever hits third in a GPP stack tonight.

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