(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open, a new event on Tour. It will be played at TPC Twin Cities which had hosted a PGA Champions Tour event(3M Championship) from 2001 until last season. It regularly produced low scores and while it has been lengthened around 250-300 yards, I still think we see a birdie fest this week.
The field is led by World #1 Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau(#8) joins him as the only other player inside the Top 10 World Golf Rankings. Overall, there are just nine of the Top 50 and 28 of the Top 100 players teeing it up this week.
TPC Twin Cities plays as a Par 72 for it's members but will play as a Par 71 this week and comes in at over 7,400 yards. While water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes, the fairways are very generous and should produce a higher than average driving accuracy. When breaking down Ball Striking, which I feel is the most important every week, I will be weighing Strokes Gained: Approach quite a bit more than Off the Tee. The greens at TPC Twin Cities are larger than average(average 6,500 sq ft) so I will also be weighing Proximity to the Hole.
My overall thought on the event is that we have a good weather forecast on a course that should produce a winning score around -18 to -22. I will be focusing a lot of my time on players form, especially in the key stats over the last 12 and 24 round sample sizes(via Fantasy National). Let's jump into the picks.
TPC Twin Cities - Blaine, MN
Par 72 - 7,434 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#31)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($11,500)
Here we go again with another big decision at the top. Last week I took Hideki over DJ and while Matsuyama only finished T13 and outside the Top 10 in fantasy scoring, DJ missed the cut so I will take the W(lol). This week Hideki is #2 in my model behind the World #1, Brooks Koepka, and I have decided to take the discount especially on FanDuel. First of all, let's look at Major championship Brooks vs. regular event Brooks.
Last 5 Majors - 2nd, WIN, 2nd, WIN, T39
Last 5 Non-Majors - T57, T50, 4th, T56, MC
Not that he doesn't have the upside to win here but for whatever reason, he doesn't play as well at regular events. For Matsuyama, he has been very consistent all year making all 16 cuts in stroke-play events with for top 10's and 12 Top 25 finishes. Over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC), he ranks 8th in SG: Ball Striking, 10th in SG: Approach, 2nd in Proximity, 1st in Opportunities Gained, and 2nd in Birdie or Better %. He fits the model perfectly and is trending towards a win once again. All things considered, he is in play in all formats.
Rory Sabbatini
World Golf Ranking (#84)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($10,000)
Sabbatini rebounded from a disappointing T43 at the U.S. Open with a T3 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has now made 12 straight cuts with four Top 10's and no finish worse than T39. He also comes into this event having gained strokes off the tee and approach together in six of his last seven tournaments while also gaining strokes putting in six of those seven tournaments as well. I will likely have more exposure to Bryson and Hideki in the top tier this week but feel Sabbatini ownership will be back down considering the increase in price and all the options around him.
Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#87)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($9,800)
I swear I am not just recycling last weeks write-ups after a celebratory Canada Day weekend(lol). I talked about Streelman as a high-floor cash play and if not for terrible Sunday(73, -3.1 strokes total), he would have had a better finish but I will gladly take a T35 in cash(46th in DK scoring). Like Sabbs, he has excellent form having made seven straight cuts with three Top 10's and no finish worse than T45 and leads all players in the sub $9K range(DK) with 74.5 Draftkings points per event(last 5 events). The price went up $300 on both sites but I will still be using him in all formats this week with most of my exposure in cash games.
Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (#74)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Hadwin is coming off a missed cut at the Travelers Championship where he was highly owned(around 19% on average) and that combined with a $500 price increase(DK) should have him a bit lower owned. Either way, I am going back to Hadwin who ranks 32nd in ball striking, 18th in fairway proximity, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 17th in Birdie or Better %, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance on my sheet. I will have exposure in all formats.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#83)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,600)
I am staying on the Canada Day DFS PGA parade with my top value pick this week. Looking at the stats on my sheet(players in this field), he ranks 2nd in SG: Ball Striking(3rd OTT, 6th APP), 1st in Fairway Proximity, and while the Birdie numbers are down(60th in BoB%), he is 24th in Bogey Avoidance. This checks out with my custom model on Fantasy National as well as he is 1st in SG: Ball Striking and 11th in Proximity over the last 24 rounds and again, the Birdie #'s are down(76th) but he is 12th in this field in Opportunities Gained in that 24 round sample size. I won't be going this route in cash games but will have lots of exposure in GPP.
Sam Burns
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($8,500)
Burns is more of a GPP play for me as he bombs it off the tee(26th in SG: OTT on my sheet) gaining him a ton of strokes on the field but he struggles with the approach(99th in SG: APP). The good news is that he has managed to make five straight cuts and while the finishes have not been there(T29 best in that sample size), he ranks 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in Opportunities gained, and 3rd in Birdie or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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