DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 6/10/19

Can Chris Sale keep up this kind of dominance? Can Darvish survive in Coors? How many Yankees are too many? Tons of questions for Monday's FanDuel and DraftKings' slate of games.

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Pitchers

Chris Sale FD - P 11800 DK - SP 10900
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - BOS
FD - 41.57 DK - 23.86
After struggling mightily to start the season, Sale has rounded back into old, ace-like form over the last couple of months. In fact, through May and the beginning of June Sale has 47.1 IP, 78 Ks, 9 walks and only 12 earned runs (good for a 2.28 ERA). These numbers are about as good as you’ll ever see over this time period and he’s back to being in the discussion for best pitchers in the game (if he ever left). The Rangers are a below average team hitting lefties this season, striking out 27% of the time with a .310 team wOBA in that split. Sale, pitching at home, as a -230 favorite (highest of the day) should have him the chalk pitcher even at the inflated salaries on both sites.

Kevin Gausman FD - P 6000 DK - SP 6400
Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - ATL
FD - 26.64 DK - 13.86
Dude’s been abysmal the last two starts, allowing 15 ER in just six combined innings. Is now the time to buy super low on the guy? It sure could be. The last two are such an eyesore, but BABIP and LOB% issues were big (not all, but big) reasons for the grizzly lines. Vegas still likes him as a -145 home favorite against the Pirates who are about middle of the road this season against righties. It’s really the price and earlier season performance we’d be buying on with Gausman for Monday. And that’s something of a leap of faith, especially considering the Pirates were part of these last two terrible starts. But coming so cheap on DK and knowing I want to spend up for Sale here does make Gausman worth the risk.

Catcher/First Base

Michael Chavis FD - 1B 3100 DK - 2B/3B 3800
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - BOS
FD - 12 DK - 9.19
Sam Travis FD - 1B 2100 DK - 1B/OF 2700
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - BOS
FD - 0.13 DK - 0.1
Christian Vazquez FD - C 2300 DK - C 3300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - BOS
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.34
I’m throwing all three of these guys together because the Red Sox lineup is a bit of a mystery right now and there’s some chance one (or all three) of these guys ends up as a value play on Monday. On Sunday, with JD Martinez out of the lineup (and ailing) Vazquez his 2nd, Chavis 4th and Travis 6th. Benintendi was also out of the lineup so it’s unlikely Boston comes back with the exact same set up, but again, there’s potential we get one of these guys on the cheaper side of things near-ish the top. Travis and Vazquez are near punt plays on the super cheap and would make for interesting salary fodder. Chavis has tailed off (predictably) since his blistering start but could still be in the middle of the order as well. Again, let’s take a wait-and-see approach on this one.

I’d still be ok running Kendrys Morales (FD $2400 DK $2200) at these prices if he was in the middle of the Yankees’ order again. But I get that it gets harder and harder to justify.

As a cheap catcher, Brian McCann (FD $2600 DK $3500) doesn’t look terrible if Vazquez isn’t getting the start for the Red Sox.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3600
Opponent - ARI (Taylor Clarke) Park - PHI
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.56
Will Andrew McCutchen out for the rest of the season, Cesar Hernandez has been moved up to the leadoff spot for the Phillies. The latter makes for a somewhat suitable replacement, bringing with him a career .355 OBP along with dribs and drabs of speed on the base paths. The walks are down this season to under 7%, but he’s over 10% for his career. A more free-swinging approach has yielded a bit more power, and he has a .776 OPS on the season. Hitting in the top spot for the Phillies has its advantages in front of the rest of their (near elite) lineup.

DJ LeMahieu FD - 2B 3700 DK - 2B/3B 4500
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYY
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.48
Lemahieu has moved out of Coors this season and his numbers have gotten, well, better. Hitting (mostly) leadoff for the Yankees, he’s on pace for the best power numbers of his career (he already has seven, his career high is 15) and the .840 OPS would represent the second-highest for the dude. He’s been significantly better against lefties for his career (this season no different) and has a career .820 wOBA and 106 wRC+ in that split. Despite Jason Vargas’s early season heroics, this is still very much an arm we can stack against.

Shortstop

Gleyber Torres FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4300
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYY
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.25
Torres got the day off Sunday after getting back into the lineup on Saturday but should be right back in the middle of the Yankees’ order on Monday. In his second season, the top prospect is raking (for a shortstop) to an .847 OPS thanks to 14 home runs in his first 247 plate appearances. It’s not anything like a fluke. He has a 44% hard contact rate and isn’t running hot on Hr/FB%. He’s just a flat out good hitter. And though he’s struck out more against lefties in his short career, he also has a slightly higher .842 OPS in that split. This is a smash spot against Jason Vargas who really feels like he’s pitching on borrowed time at this point.

Jean Segura FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 4000
Opponent - ARI (Taylor Clarke) Park - PHI
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.8
Segura is a high contact guy, putting the ball in play around 82% of the time this season working that contact to an .789 OPS. It doesn’t necessarily light the world on fire, but his profile lines up well against a guy like Taylor Clarke who’s really struggled to but down batters in his short stint in the majors. Through his first 22 IP, Clarke is managing only a 15.8% K rate and a 5.21 xFIP. The Phillies have one of the higher implied run lines on the day for good reason and Segura, locked into the second slot in the order, makes for a solid mid range play at shortstop.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 4000
Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - ATL
FD - 13.44 DK - 10.05
Donaldson has seen a real dip in power over the last season or so (between Toronto and Atlanta) with *only* 16 home runs in his last 450+ plate appearances. This is something of a departure from the guy who’d hit 33+ in three of the previous seasons while with the Blue Jays. It comes (mostly) down to him just hitting fewer flyballs now with the 33% FB% down from the 40%+ he was putting up in seasons past. But it’s also brought his price down in the lower middle tier and he’s a guy with a 12% walk rate and 52% hard contact rate. I’m still fine rolling him at these prices at the top of the Atlanta order and Musgrove doesn’t represent the kind of arm we need to avoid.

Matt Carpenter FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4000
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 11.87 DK - 8.85 Coming similarly priced to Donaldson, Carpenter finds himself in a plus matchup as well against Sandy Alcantara who’s striking out only 15% of batters faced and has an xFIP well over 5.00. Carpenter’s numbers are way down this year with an OPS barely scraping over .700. But it’s also looking like 2018 was something of an outlier for the dude in the power department. I think he’s also adequately priced now as well and in a good matchup. I see him and Donaldson as very similar on this slate.

Outfield

Aaron Hicks FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYY
FD - 13.39 DK - 10.07
Coming off a career year in 2018, Hicks struggled some to get things going after an injury had him miss the first month of the season. But there isn’t a ton of reason for concern with the underlying numbers still very much in favor of a turnaround. He’s walking 12% of the time and has a 39% hard contact rate, both in line with last season’s numbers. The K’s are up a little, but the BABIP is down. I think he has some solid months in front of him near the top of this Yankee lineup. And as a switch-hitter, he’s been better for his career facing lefties with a 104 wRC+ in that split to go with a .327 wOBA.

Mookie Betts FD - OF 4200 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - BOS
FD - 15.98 DK - 12.16
I know it’s odd to stack a team against a guy like Minor who has a sub-3.00 ERA, but I don’t think his numbers settle there when it’s all said and done this season. His xFIP is much closer to 4.00 and he has some regression coming in both the home run ball and the LOB%. The Red Sox righties are all coming in reasonable ranges and Betts has thrashed lefties for his career with a .902 OPS and 136 wRC+. We are getting him a hair cheaper than the Coors’ guys and he’s a significantly better hitter.

Charlie Blackmon (FD $4300 DK $5800) and David Dahl (FD $3900 DK $5300) are in an interesting, but expensive spot against Darvish in Coors on Monday. It will cost, but Yu’s been a control disaster this season and Colorado won’t help with that.

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