Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
Track - 2 Mile D-Shaped Oval
18° of Banking
This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon. While last week was a tough race for passing with the new package, that is not expected to be the case at Michigan which has more banking and should lead to more drafting, big runs, passing, and lead changes. That is great news for Michigan fans as this track has provided one of the highest correlations between starting and finishing position in the sport.
For fantasy, we have seen a driver lead 100 or more laps just twice in the last five races and expect that trend to continue with the new rules package that should lead to a lot of lead changes. We will have to confirm in the two Friday practices but I also think stacking teammates is fully in play here again this week with the drafting I think we see.
If it's consistency you are after, look no further than Chase Elliott who returns to Michigan with a Top 10 finish in all six career races which includes three runner-up finishes. The only knock here is that he has not led a lap over the last four races here and is averaging just 43.4 DraftKings points per race(7th best) but on FanDuel he is averaging 55.3 points per race, second to only Kevin Harvick.
Kyle Busch returns to Michigan with two straight Top 5's and four straight Top 10 finishes. That is good enough to rank him 3rd among all drivers in both DraftKings(50.5) and FanDuel(54.2) points per race in that time.
If you are looking for upside, there is absolutely no way to overlook Kyle Larson. He struggled here last year with a 17th and 28th place finish but before that was coming off a run of three straight wins at the track. He got each of those wins from three different starting positions as well starting 9th, 1st, and 12th and leading as many as 96 laps(2017-June) and as few as one lap(2017-July).
If you are building lineups around Larson this week, his teammate Kurt Busch is an excellent stacking option. In his last season with Stewart-Haas in 2018 he finished 6th and 3rd here and has finished 12th or better in six straight races here.
Kevin Harvick is coming off a dominant win here last July starting 3rd and leading 108 laps en route to his second career victory here. He has also been very consistent here with Top 5 finishes in nine of his last 12 races which also includes five runner-up finishes. For stacking purposes, I lean Aric Almirola slightly over Clint Bowyer as the price is cheaper on both sites. He picked up his first career Top 10 here last July and also finished 11th in June in his first season in the #10 car for Stewart Hass Racing.
Finally, don't forget about Michigan native, Brad Keselowski. He has yet to win at his "home track" but has Top 10's in eight of his last 10 trips including a runner-up last August. He is also one of the few drivers to lead 100+ laps in a race here(2017).
Chase Elliott sits at the top of the form list as he leaves Pocono with his fifth straight Top 5 finish going back to his win at Talladega. Over the last six races(sample size on sheet), he leads all drivers in FanDuel points per race(76.6) and is second in DraftKings points per race(70.6).
Joey Logano currently sits second in the points behind Kyle Busch and despite not winning since back in Las Vegas, has been very consistent. He has five Top 10's in his last six races with three Top 5's. His best value has easily been on FanDuel where he is second to Elliott in average FanDuel scoring(69.8).
It has been a while but two Hendrick Motor Sports drivers sit Top 3 in form(last six races). Alex Bowman didn't continue his Top 10 streak last week at Pocono but he has four Top 10's with three runner-ups in his last five races and the third-best average finish(7.5) over the last six races.
Martin Truex Jr.'s roller coaster ride continued at Pocono as he retired early due to an engine issue. His last six results --> 35th, Win, 19th, Win, 20th, Win. Despite that, he sits #1 in average DraftKings points per race(72.5) over the last six races.
Brad Keselowski also appears to be heating up just in time for a trip to his "home track". He has a front row finish in two of his last three races including his third win of the season at Kansas before the All-Star break.
*Note-These picks are coming before qualifying so be sure to check the cheatsheet for final rankings. DFSR members will also receive a separate copy with my highlighted top picks.*
Kyle Busch/Erik Jones
I am going to start with Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Erik Jones. I will have exposure to Truex and Hamlin as well but these are the two I am focusing on as they fit together in lineups, salary-wise, very well. Busch is coming off a win at Pocono last week where he was not happy at all with the package and difficult to pass(he won he didn't have to pass much). He now returns to Michigan where he finished Top 5 in both races last year and Top 10 in four straight. For Jones, he has finished Top 15 here in all four career races and is coming off a season-high 3rd place finish. Both drivers showed speed in practice with Busch rankings 11th and 2nd overall and 7th in 10-lap averages in the final practice. Jones was even better ranking 6th and 7th in the two practices and 3rd in 10-lap averages in both.
Kevin Harvick/Aric Almirola
Stewart-Haas racing found what they were looking for in final practice this week as they made up four of the Top 5 in one-lap averages and four of the Top 8 in 10-lap averages. I will start with Harvick who is coming off a win and runner-up finish here last year and has nine Top 5 finishes in his last 12 races here at Michigan. In his first season with SHR last year, Almirola posted his two best career finishes here at Michigan including his first Top 10 last August. What really stands out is the adjustments the #10 team made from practice #1(14th in one-lap, 12th in 10-lap) to practice #2 where they ranked 5th in one-lap and 2nd in 10-lap averages. On top of that, Almirola also ranked first in 15 and 20-lap averages as well. I will have a ton of combinations of the SHR cars but these two are my favorite.
Paul Menard
This pick will definitely depend on qualifying when it comes to cash games but after practices, I will at least have exposure in GPP formats. It was first practice where he shined ranking 9th overall with the 5th fastest 10-lap average. He was 19th in second practice and that could lead to a worse starting position which helps us from a PTS/$ perspective. Stay tuned.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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