DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/5/19

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Pitchers

Charlie Morton FD - P 10400 DK - SP 11600
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET
FD - 38.04 DK - 21.26

Morton has been a huge contributor to the Rays leading the league with an outstanding 2.64 rotation ERA this season. Outside of one start against Boston, he has been extremely consistent holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 12 starts and sits with a 2.54 ERA on the season with a 3.41 xFIP to back it up. After eight straight seasons posting a sub 20% K rate, he has seen an uptick in five straight years and sits with a career-high 30.4% K rate and 12.6% swinging strike rate this season. He now gets an elite matchup against a Tigers team that has been much worse against righties and have been better than only the Marlins in wOBA(.293), wRC+(74), and ISO(.150) and have an ugly 26.4% K rate in the splits and have struck out 28% of the time over the past seven days. Morton is my top pitcher in all formats.

James Paxton FD - P 10000 DK - SP 11300
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TOR
FD - 40.56 DK - 22.88

Paxton was on a pitch count in his return from injury in his last start but looked like peak Paxton tossing four no-hit innings while striking out seven and still managed to tally 33 FD/21.8 DK points. With that performance, I fully expect him to get at least 85+ pitches tonight and he gets another premium matchup against a Jays team that has been bad overall but slightly worse against lefties with a .283 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .163 ISO, and 25.5% K rate. Paxton also throws his fastball 64% of the time with a 12.6% swinging strike while the Jays rank dead last against fastballs to this point in the season. Unless there is word of another pitch count, I think we can target Paxton in all formats and even if there is a pitch count I will be targeting in GPP formats in this spot.

Brad Peacock FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9600
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA
FD - 28.92 DK - 15.49

After finishing the 2017 season with 21 starts in his last 22 outings with an impressive 3.27 ERA/3.67 xFIP, Peacock was sent back to the pen in 2018 despite once again impressing(3.46 ERA/2.82 xFIP). He is getting another shot to start in 2019 and is making the most of it with a 3.17 ERA and comes in red-hot holding opponents to just three earned runs combined over his last five starts. He isn't overpowering(92.3 avg fastball velo) and doesn't generate a ton of swing and misses(8.6%) but still gets over a K per inning and faces a slumping Mariners team that has posted a .301 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and 26% K rate over the last 14 days. I like him on both sites tonight in the sub $10K range but his best value comes on FanDuel at just $8,600.

Catcher/First Base

Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3600 DK - C 5100
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIL
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.7
Eric Thames FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B/OF 5100
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIL
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.64

The Brewers are at the top of my list of teams to target tonight and it starts with the matchup. They will face youngster Sandy Alcantara who has taken a step back since his impressive start holding the Rockies and Braves to a combined two earned runs over 12 innings. Since then, he has given up three or more earned runs in six of his nine starts and the three games he looked good were against the Mets, Indians, and Giants. Five of his six home runs have been to lefties who he has struggled against with a 13.4% walk rate and 5.79 xFIP.

With their prices on DraftKings, the Brew Crew are better overall plays, especially in cash games, on FanDuel. It starts with Grandal at catcher who has been solid overall(.277/.376/.527 slash line) and even better over the last couple weeks(.308/.431/.712 slash line) with five home runs and 11 RBI. He is a switch hitter who has been better from the right side this season but has had stronger splits from the left side throughout his career.

While most don't think of Eric Thames as a "safe" play because of his .254 average, he is getting on base at an elite .383 rate thanks to a 16% walk rate. He also comes in hot with hits in six straight games and for the season has seven home runs adding upside to the equation.
Logan Forsythe FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B/SS 4400
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - TEX
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.45

Forsythe provides some value at the position, especially on FanDuel, if you are looking to pay up at pitcher or other positions. The matchup is an interesting one as I have been waiting for John Means to hit the regression wall(2.80 ERA-->4.92 xFIP, .248 BABIP)  for a while now and he keeps putting up solid starts. Even if he doesn't completely fall off the cliff, this is a good spot for Forsythe who, despite more balanced splits in 2019, has had strong splits against lefties for his career and has been solid all season with a .302 average and .406 on-base percentage. He is in play in all formats, especially if he gets the nod at the top of the lineup.

Also Consider: Freddie Freeman(ATL)

Second Base

Derek Dietrich FD - 2B 3000 DK - 1B/2B 5000
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - STL
FD - 9.43 DK - 7.21

If you can afford him, Moustakas is another Brewers bat on my radar but from a PTS/$ and cash game perspective, I will be going with Derek Dietrich tonight at the top. He is well on his way to a career-year with a .269/.373/.700 slash line and has already set a career-high in home runs with 17 in just 56 games(16 HR in 149 games last year). The matchup against Dakota Hudson is interesting in that he has stabilized in the HR/FB department(zero HR last four starts) but has been hit very hard by lefties with a .435 wOBA, .617 SLG, and 43.3% hard contact rate against in the split. He is in play on both sites with his best value on FanDuel.
Hanser Alberto FD - 2B 2400 DK - 2B/3B 3200
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 8.13 DK - 6.27

To lead off, this is nothing more than a punt play who checks a lot of boxes. I have been talking up Alberto and the Orioles a ton when they face lefty pitching and for good reason as he entered Tuesday with a .391 average, .402 wOBA, and 155 wRC+ in the split and has picked up two more hits against Smyly as I write this. I am not in love with the matchup at all as Minor has excelled this season but is running a little hot on the ERA(2.74) seeing as the xFIP sits at 3.98 so for the price, I am considering Alberto in all formats.

Also Consider: DJ LeMahieu(NYY)

Third Base

Rafael Devers FD - 3B 3900 DK - 3B 5300
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC
FD - 11.74 DK - 8.93

After the Brewers, it is the Red Sox I will be targeting and building around the most tonight. They face Jakob Junis who has been consistently below average this season with a 5.35 ERA/4.45 xFIP and has really struggled against left-handed batters(.435 wOBA/.532 SLG/44% hard contact). That plays right into Devers' hands as he went into Tuesday red-hot with hits in 12 of his last 13 games pushing his slash line up to .316/.372/.498 for the season. With others at the position in much tougher matchups, Devers is easily my top third basemen to pay up for tonight.

Travis Shaw FD - 3B 2200 DK - 3B 2800
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIL
FD - 9.37 DK - 7.03

If you are planning on paying up at pitcher tonight(two on DraftKings), you are going to need a punt play or two. Due to his slow start and return from injury this week, we downgraded his projection and he is still popping at these prices. Not very often we get an actual productive fantasy player on DraftKings in the sub $3K range so it feels we need to take advantage. He is coming off back to back 30 home run seasons and I 100% feel regression to the mean is coming to his .163/.266/.281 slash line as he has an above average line drive rate and flyball rate and a consistent hard contact rate(36%) with the last couple of seasons. If he comes up with a hit or two tonight, you can lock it in the sites will have a big price increase coming. Get in while you can.

Also Consider: Tommy La Stella(LAA) especially if he is back up at or near the top of the lineup

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 3700 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - MIN (Martin Perez) Park - CLE
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.44

The time to get on Franciso Lindor is now! The Indians offense has sputtered out the gate with that early injury to Lindor and slump from Jose Ramirez to note a few things but look out as Lindor is coming off a terrific May where he posted a .308 average and .397 on-base percentage. The one knock on Lindor could be his splits as he struggled early against lefties but as I write this has gone 2 for 2 against Smeltzer with two homers and a walk. At this rate, he will be the most expensive shortstop by mid-June(10th on DK, 7th on FD right now) so buy in now and roster him in all formats.
Kevin Newman FD - SS 2700 DK - 2B/SS 3900
Opponent - ATL (Kevin Gausman) Park - PIT
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.01

There are a million ways to go tonight with lineup construction with so many low-end values available. Newman is another one who will likely also be lower owned with so many options in great spots. For those who are not familiar with him, he was the Pirates 1st round pick in 2015 and came in with the expectation of a high contact hitter with .300+ upside. He didn't impress in a late-season call-up in 2018(.209/.247/.231 in 31 games but has taken that next step early this year. Over 32 games, he has posted a .316 average and .371 on-base percentage and was currently promoted to the leadoff spot. If he is there again tonight, he makes a great play in cash games to get some salary relief to fit the top pitchers.

Also Consider: David Fletcher(LAA) who has SS eligibility on FanDuel and 3B/OF eligibility on DraftKings. All formats if back in the leadoff spot and GPP only if not. 

Outfield

Andrew Benintendi FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.04

In GPP formats I will have a ton of Martinez and Betts in the outfield but for cash games, I side with Benintendi who saves you some much-needed salary, especially on FanDuel. The average(.259) has fallen off early in the season but he is still getting on base at an above average rate(.355) and hits at the top of the order between those two elite hitters. The other reason I lean Benny tonight is the splits of his opponent who has given up a .435 wOBA, .532 SLG, and 44% hard contact in the split.
Jesse Winker FD - OF 2500 DK - OF 3800
Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - STL
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.63

Like I have mentioned throughout the article, there is a ton of value at every position and in the outfield, it's Winker tonight. The overall numbers(.236/.312/.445) are pretty terrible but he comes into tonight with hits in 11 of his last 13 starts with four multi-hit games. The other piece is the matchup as I mentioned earlier Hudson really struggles against lefties with a .435 wOBA, .617 SLG, and 43.3% hard contact rate against. At these prices, if he is back near the top of the lineup, I will consider him in all formats and if down near the bottom he is still a GPP play.

Also Consider: Mike Trout/Cesar Puello(LAA), Jordan Luplow(CLE)

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