Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Pocono Raceway - Long Pond, PA
Track - 2.5 Mile Tri-Oval
14° of Banking in Turns 1
8° of Banking in Turn 2
6° of Banking in Turn 3
This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to one of the most unique tracks in NASCAR, Pocono Raceway. It is called the "Tricky Triangle" for a reason as it has just three corners and all three are different and present different challenges for crew and car chiefs to get the car setup. You either have to sacrifice handling in once corner to be good in the other two or go balanced between them. Rarely you will see a car set up perfectly for all three corners.
For fantasy, these challenges combined with only 160 laps in the race really limits the dominator upside. Only twice has a driver led 100 or more laps in a Pocono race going all the way back to 2010(18 races). When it comes to track position and correlation from start to finish, last year was a bit of an anomaly(.227 correlation) as the average correlation has been .570 in the previous five race before that. The difference last year was that a lot of fast cars qualified outside the Top 20 and Top 30 starting positions. With the new single-car qualifying, I don't expect that to happen this time around.
A reminder that both practice sessions are on Friday with Qualifying now on Saturday before the Xfinity race. It is an impound weekend but inspection is being done Saturday before qualifying so we don't have to wait until pre-race Sunday for the official starting lineup.
When looking at recent track history, there are two drivers who stand out above the rest. It took Kyle Busch 26 races to get his first win at Pocono and has now entered Victory Lane twice in the last three races here with a 3rd place finish in the other and in total, he has five straight Top 10 finishes at the Tricky Triangle. Kevin Harvick is still seeking his first win here after 36 races but has been, by far, the most consistent as he has finished Top 5 in five straight and seven of his last nine trips to Pocono.
Next up is the only other two drivers with a sub 10.0 average finish here over the last two years(four races). Martin Truex Jr. won this race last year and has three Top 10's in his last four while Chase Elliott has finished Top 10 in four straight and five of his six career trips here in a Cup car.
Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney both have excellent track history here. Blaney's first career Cup win came here at Pocono in 2017 and he has finished 12th or better in five of his six career trips here. Before his crash here last July, Keselowski was on a streak of six straight Top 5 finishes here and had never finished worse than 23rd in 17 races.
Erik Jones is the other driver that really stands out this week. In four career races, he has two Top 5's and three Top 10's and is one of five drivers with multiple Top 5's and one of six drivers with at least three Top 10's in that time.
No driver has been on more of a roller coaster ride lately than Martin Truex Jr. who has gone 17th(Bristol), Win(Richmond), 20th(Talladega), Win(Dover), 19th(Kansas), Win(Charlotte) in his last six races. For the season, he is now tied with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski with three wins and is second to Busch with an average of 62.6 DK/71.1 FD points per race.
The most consistent driver as of late has been reigning series champion, Joey Logano, who has four Top 5's and five Top 10's in the last six races with a 5.5 average finish. While he has just one win on the season, he is tied with Kyle Busch with seven Top 5 finishes and is 3rd in average FanDuel scoring(69.8 per race) and 5th in average DraftKings scoring(53.6 per race).
Chase Elliott is red-hot right now as well with four straight Top 5's including a win at Talladega and is the only other driver other than Logano with four Top 5's in the last six races. On the season, he is not only the only Hendrick car with a win but also the only Chevy with a win and is 4th overall in both average DraftKings(54.9 per race) and FanDuel(69.2 per race) scoring.
Elliott's teammate, Alex Bowman, has also been on a roll lately with four straight Top 10 finishes including three straight runner-ups at Talladega, Dover, and Kansas. The future looks bright in the Hendrick camp.
Kyle Busch and the #18 team have fallen off a bit......for their standards. He got his first non Top 10 finish at Kansas two races ago but still has five Top 10's in the last six races and has led 70 or more laps in three of them. For the season, he is tied with three wins and seven Top 5's, is second with 684 laps led and is first in both DraftKings(75.2) and FanDuel(75.8) points per race.
Kyle Busch
Like I mentioned above, it took Busch 26 races to finally get a win here at Pocono but he has now won two of the last three at the Tricky Triangle with five straight Top 10 finishes. These picks come before qualifying but I would fully expect the #18 car to be starting Top 5 as he showed that speed in both practices on Friday and also topped the ranks when looking at 10-lap averages in final practice. He will be my core driver this week.
Brad Keselowski
Before getting caught up in a crash here last July, Brad K had posted six straight Top 5 finishes and also has one career win here at Pocono(2011). It appears he will have a car to contend this weekend as he posted the 5th and 2nd fastest laps in the two Friday practices and was also 2nd behind Busch in 10-lap averages in that final practice. He is fourth in pricing on both sites leading to a more balanced lineup and is in play in all formats.
Ryan Blaney
It has been a very up and down season for Blaney who hasn't picked up a Top 10 since Bristol back in April and has just four all season and they are all Top 5's. No better place to get back on track than the site of his first career Cup win(2017). This is definitely a GPP only play this week with his inconsistency but the good news is that he showed speed ranking 2nd in the first practice and while he was 14th in the second practice he posted the sixth-best 10-lap average.
Chase Elliott/William Byron/Alex Bowman
I am not ready to jump back on ole seven-time Jimmie Johnson but gimme all the Hendrick youth right now. It starts with Chase Elliott who comes into this week with four straight Top 5 finishes and now returns to Pocono where he has been consistent with Top 10's in four straight and five of his six career Cup races here. While he was outside the Top 10 in both practices, he posted the 3rd best 10-lap average in final practice.
Byron is coming off Top 10 finishes in two of his last three races and progressed nicely here at Pocono in his rookie season finished 18th in this race and followed that up with a 6th place finish in the July race. He comes cheap on both sites and posted Top 10 speeds in both practices on Friday.
Bowman is the third member of the HMS team that ranks inside the Top 10 in my rankings and it makes perfect sense. Like his teammates above, he comes in with excellent form having finished Top 10 in four straight races including three straight runner-ups. The career track history doesn't exactly jump out as he started his career with five straight finishes outside of 25th but rebounded last July with a third-place finish. His practice times were up and down(3rd, 18th) so stay tuned for qualifying as place differential will matter for him this week.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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