DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/30/19

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Pitchers

Mike Minor FD - P 9200 DK - SP 10300
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - TEX
FD - 31.87 DK - 16.56

Minor is an excellent case study of a pitcher who went from being targeted against for stacking to a no doubt ace all in one season. The biggest change was the approach as he is throwing fewer fastballs(49-42%) and more curves(11-16%) and changeups(19-24%) which have generated a 12% and 15% swinging strike rate respectively. Through 11 starts, he has held opponents to two or fewer runs eight times leading a very impressive 2.55 ERA and while the xFIP(4.07) is higher leading us to believe regression is coming, I don't think there is much as his expected stats suggest(.349 SLG/.349 xSLG, .282 wOBA/.288 xwOBA). The matchup also stands out tonight as the Royals have really struggled against lefties with a .277 wOBA(27th), 69 wRC+(28th), and .122 ISO(27th) while striking out 24% of the time. All things considered, Minor is my top pitcher in all formats.

Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 11000 DK - SP 11200
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - LAD
FD - 42.73 DK - 23.55

Ryu has been one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball this season leading the league with an elite 1.65 ERA that is also backed up by a tidy 2.81 xFIP. While we usually associate the Dodgers with "pitch count risk", that just hasn't been the case for Ryu who is averaging 96 pitches and seven innings per start(excluding the start he was pulled with a groin injury). The Mets have been better against left-handed pitching(.335 wOBA, 113 wRC+) but Pete Alonso has cooled off as of late and Brandon Nimmo is on the 10-day IL. Those are two of the leaders in the split. The Dodgers open as -225 home favorites in this one and Ryu is most definitely in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Chris Sale(BOS) as a GPP pivot in a tougher matchup in Yankee Stadium. The good news is that he has found his rhythm and has posted a 2.44 ERA/2.81 xFIP with a 41.8% K rate over his last seven starts.

Catcher/First Base

Roberto Perez FD - C 2500 DK - C 3700
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - CHW
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.44
The Indians are in a terrific spot tonight facing Manny Banuelos who has really struggled lately. He has allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his last four starts(15 IP) while walking 14% of batters and allowing a 47% flyballs which have turned into eight home runs(34.8% HR/FB). The value is what stands out for the Indians and it starts at catcher as Roberto Perez is coming off a rest day on Wednesday while his numbers don't jump out overall, he has been excellent against lefties with a .294 average, .405 wOBA, 153 wRC+, and .959 OPS. At a price under $4K on DraftKings and in the mid $2K range on FanDuel, Perez is my top catcher and in play in all formats.
Steve Pearce FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B/OF 3100
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - NYY
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.63

It hasn't been a great start to the season for Pearce but there are a lot of things to like about him tonight. First of all, he is very cheap on both sites and has historically beaten up on left-handed pitching(.366 wOBA, 131 wRC+, .242 ISO since the start of the 2016 season). He now gets a matchup against J.A. Happ who feeds right into his power as he has given up 13 of his 14 home runs to righties and at least one in nine of his 11 starts. The price is too hard to pass up and Pearce is in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Carlos Santana(CLE) at first base or Yasmani Grandal(MIL) at catcher

Second Base

Michael Chavis FD - 2B 3600 DK - 2B/3B 5100
Opponent - NYY (J.A. Happ) Park - NYY
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.27

Looking at any preseason rookie of the year odds or rankings you likely didn't find Michael Chavis's name and it makes sense as he hasn't hit double-digit home runs since AA. It has been a different story at the big league level as he sits among the rookie leaders with a .279/.376/.527 slash line with 136 wRC+ and 10 home runs. He has also assaulted lefty pitching to the tune of a .372 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and .406 ISO. The price has reached its peak but if you can afford him, he is a great play in all formats.
Kike Hernandez FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B/OF 3700
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - LAD
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.52

If you are looking to go the value route at second base, Enrique Hernandez is always in play against left-handed pitching. He has struggled overall but is crushing in the split with a .375 wOBA, 138 wRC+, and 53% hard contact rate and gets a boost as he usually gets moved to the leadoff spot in these matchups. He is the top PTS/$ play at the position in the system and safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Adam Frazier(PIT) if he is back in the leadoff spot

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - CHW
FD - 14.31 DK - 10.92

It may not look like Lindor is fully back after a calf injury early in the season but his numbers almost mirror his previous two productive seasons. He entered Wednesday night with a .279 average and .353 on-base percentage and the only real area of concern is his hitting against lefties(.209 avg, .283 wOBA, 70 wRC+) but he was strong in the split last year(.343/.423/168) and throughout his career, so I fully expect a regression to the mean. Like I mentioned with Perez, the matchup is at the top of the list tonight against a struggling Manny Banuelos so I will be targeting Lindor in all formats on both sites.

There is a nice selection of shortstops after Lindor. It starts with the Rangers trio of Elvis Andrus(.370 wOBA, 126 wRC+ vs. righties) and Danny Santana(.373 wOBA, 128 wRC+ vs. righties) who get a terrific matchup against Jakob Junis. They hit second and third in the order last night and if back their again both are in play in all formats, especially Santana on FanDuel under $3K. Xander Bogaerts(BOS) would be my top GPP pivot who has strong splits against lefties and is going up against Happ who has been homer-friendly. Other values will arise as lineups are released so make sure to join us in the members chat closer to lineup lock.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - LAD
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.61

The Dodgers have been one of the best offenses in baseball to start the year and Justin Turner is once again producing consistent numbers(.298/.387/.436 slash line). The only struggle he is having is against southpaws and like Lindor, I immediately start looking at the bigger sample size. Over the last two seasons, Turner has a .360 avg, .461 wOBA, 194 wRC+, and 1.111 OPS against lefties so even a slight regression to the mean raises his overall numbers. The matchup is interesting in that Vargas has held opponents to one earned run in four of his last five starts and still sits with a 5.22 ERA and even worse 5.79 xFIP. I feel better about it considering Vargas also walks 11% batters and gives up 44% flyballs and at his price, will consider Turner in all formats.
Mike Moustakas FD - 3B 3600 DK - 2B/3B 4800
Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - PIT
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.15

Moose is more expensive and definitely doesn't provide the same safety(.256/.322/.523 slash line) as Turner but has provided a ton of upside in the middle of that potent Brewers lineup. He comes into tonight with 13 home runs and has been much better from the left side with a .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and .891 OPS in the split. This lines up with the matchup as well as Musgrove has understandably struggled a little more against left-handed bats. I will go another direction in cash games but love Moustakas as part of a Brewers stack tonight.

Also Consider: Miguel Sano(MIN) as an upside GPP pivot or Colin Moran(PIT) as a value play in all formats

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - TEX
FD - 12.88 DK - 9.76
Nomar Mazara FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - TEX
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.31

The Rangers currently top the implied run rankings and the outfield is where I will concentrate my exposure tonight. Choo is getting a little expensive for cash games on DraftKings but does provide that "safety" with an elite .382 on-base percentage and he is one of three Rangers with a .400+ wOBA and 150+ wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The price on Mazara is still down a bit, considering the matchup, and it makes sense as he has struggled to a .258/.313/.445 slash line but the good news is that he comes into tonight with three straight multi-hit efforts. Both hitters get a great matchup against Jakob Junis who has given up three or more earned runs in nine of his 11 starts and sits with an ugly 5.58 ERA/4.56 xFIP. Both are in play in all formats, especially if they are hitting 1/2 in the lineup. If Joey Gallo is back in the lineup, he can also be considered a core play.

Jordan Luplow FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - CHW
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.91

Luplow isn't exactly knocking the cover off the ball overall(.244/.298/.500) but like Perez, who I mentioned earlier, has strong splits against lefties. The sample size isn't huge(49 plate appearances), by any means, but he has posted .477 wOBA, 201 wRC+, and 1.183 OPS and faces a struggling Manny Banuelos who has allowed 24 earned runs(eight home runs) in his last four starts. If paying up for pitching, Luplow fits the value mold to make it work in all formats.

Also Consider: Bryan Reynolds(PIT) with his 51% hard contact rate against righties or Tommy Pham/Avisail Garcia(TB) who both have strong splits against lefties

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