DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/29/19

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Pitchers

Blake Snell FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11300
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TB
FD - 44.75 DK - 25.31

Snell stumbled a bit when he returned from a foot injury allowing nine earned runs to the Royals across two start but since then has been back to his elite self. He has allowed just 15 hits and four earned runs in his last four starts(24.1 IP) while striking out 37(40.2%) and walking just six(6.5%). Even with those couple bad starts, he still sits with a 3.07 ERA and much better 2.58 xFIP and while the wOBA against(.268) is very impressive, the xwOBA(.242) is even better. To top it off, he gets an elite matchup tonight vs. a Blue Jays team that ranks 27th in wOBA(.277) and wRC+(71) against left-handed pitching with a 26% K rate. Paying up for pitching has been a dicey proposition this season but I am fully confident in Snell in this spot and he is easily my top pitcher in all formats.

Madison Bumgarner FD - P 9700 DK - SP 9900
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 35.59 DK - 18.48

He doesn't exactly have the best offense behind him which has limited his wins in 2019but outside of that he has been a very consistent fantasy producer. He has gone at least 5 2/3 innings in each of his 11 starts, is striking out over a batter per inning(25%) and walking just 4.6% of batters. Like Snell, MadBum also gets a plus matchup against a team who struggles against lefties ranking dead last in wOBA(.259) and wRC+(62) in the split. The only concern here is that the Marlins K much less(20%) against southpaws but all things considered, Bumgarner is my top PTS/$ value at pitcher on this slate.

Catcher/First Base

Rhys Hoskins FD - 1B 4400 DK - 1B 4900
Opponent - STL (Genesis Cabrera) Park - PHI
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.58

The Phillies are in a great spot tonight as they will be facing rookie Genesis Cabrera making his major-league debut. Never heard the name? There is likely a reason as he posted a 4.00+ ERA through AA, and through seven starts(nine appearances) in AAA this season he has posted a 6.35 ERA/6.37 xFIP while walking over 10% of batters he faces. That won't equate well in the majors and especially not against a Phillies team that hits lefties well. Let's start with Hoskins and while the average(.266) seems low it is an improvement on last year while he remains among the leaders in home runs(13), RBI(40), and also provides some safety with an elite .394 on-base percentage. All things considered, he is my top play at first base and in play in all formats.

Pedro Severino FD - C 2800 DK - C 3900
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - BAL
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.69

To fit the top pitchers and/or bats in our lineups we will need to look for value(obvious) and my favorite team to target in this category is Baltimore vs. lefties. They currently have four hitters with a .400+ wOBA and 150+ wRC+ in the split and it starts at catcher who leads them all(.437 wOBA, 178 wRC+, .324 ISO). Severino has also been consistent for a catcher with a .273 average and .353 on-base percentage going into Tuesday night. He is my top catcher option on DraftKings tonight and also makes a nice source of savings in all formats in the sub $3K range on FanDuel.

Also Consider: J.T. Realmuto(PHI) at catcher or Jose Abreu(CWS) at first base

Second Base

Hanser Alberto FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B/3B 4200
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - BAL
FD - 9.33 DK - 7.2

Alberto is another Orioles bat who has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching(.431 wOBA, 174 wRC+, .182 ISO) and lately he has also been hitting leadoff in the split adding to his value. Tonight, he and the O's face a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who struggled at AAA and not much has changed in the bigs as he enters tonight with a 9.00 ERA/4.71 xFIP and has already given up five home runs in just 14 innings(27.8% HR/FB rate). If Alberto is back in the leadoff spot on Wednesday, he is most definitely in cash game consideration and especially on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.
Nicky Lopez FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3600
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHW
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.03

The Royals are another team I am high on tonight and Lopez is another value play the system has been high on for a while now. It makes sense as he cruised through AAA this season with a .353/.457/.500 slash line and while he has cooled off after a hot start in the bigs, it appears he will still get a ton of opportunity hitting in the leadoff spot. That combined with the price has him near the top of the PTS/$ ranks and will likely be a staple in the optimizer lineups tonight.

Also Consider: Joe Panik(SF) as a value play if back in the leadoff spot

Shortstop

Jean Segura FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - STL (Genesis Cabrera) Park - PHI
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.7

I talked about the plus matchup for the Phillies against a rookie who struggled in both AA and AAA and is now making his debut in the bigs. Segura is a player I am targeting in all formats at the top of that second tier of pricing on both sites. He leads the Phillies against lefty pitching this season with an eye-popping .534 wOBA, 240 wRC+, and .444 ISO and has been very consistent overall with a .315/.361/.489 slash line. He is in a great spot in the lineup for fantasy hitting behind Andrew McCutchen with power bats in Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins right behind him. For cash games, I love the McCutchen/Segura two-man stack and a full Phillies stack in GPP formats.
Adalberto Mondesi FD - SS 3800 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHW
FD - 10.29 DK - 8.03

The Royals aren't currently one of the top projected teams(3.9 implied runs) but I am not buying it in this matchup. They face Reynaldo Lopez who shines at times but sits with an ugly 1.56 WHIP giving teams a ton of opportunities and it shows as he enters tonight with a 6.03 ERA and equally bad 5.81 xFIP. The other piece of the puzzle is that Lopez really struggles against lefties(6.81 xFIP/.411 wOBA/.583 SLG against) and Mondesi is a switch hitter who has been much better against righties with a .355 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and .222 ISO in the split.  He is one of my top pay up options at any position in all formats.

Also Consider: Javier Baez(CHC) as a GPP pay up option as he crushes lefties to the tune of a .558 wOBA, 256 wRC+, and .563 ISO

Third Base

Renato Nunez FD - 3B 3500 DK - 1B 5000
Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - BAL
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.11

I consider Severino and Alberto more for cash games at their discounted prices tonight but love adding Renato Nunez to that for a GPP stack. He is another one of the four players I talked about earlier who have crushed southpaw pitching as he enters tonight with a .408 wOBA, 158 wRC+, and massive .344 ISO in the split. There is a ton of upside here and with his rising price, he will likely be lower owned tonight making him and the O's one of my top stacks tonight.

After Nunez, there are a few different options who stand out tonight. If you are paying up, you will obviously be looking at Coors Field and going with the red-hot Nolan Arenado(COL) or Eduardo Escobar(ARI) on the other side of the field. In the same price range as Nunez, I absolutely love Hunter Dozier(KC) who has taken a huge step forward in 2019 as he enters tonight with a very impressive .322/.407/.609 slash line. Stay tuned for lineups when they come out as Sean Rodriguez(PHI) could end up being a good value at third if he starts as he has been excellent against lefties with a .475 wOBA, 201 wRC+, and 62% hard contact rate in the split.

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - STL (Genesis Cabrera) Park - PHI
FD - 15.05 DK - 11.36
Scott Kingery FD - OF 2800 DK - 3B/OF 4100
Opponent - STL (Genesis Cabrera) Park - PHI
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.81

As you can probably tell by now, I love the Phillies tonight in this smash spot against rookie Genesis Cabrera. In the outfield, I do like Bryce Harper but with the lefty/lefty matchup and 30%+ K rate this season I will reserve him for GPP formats. For cash games, I prefer Andrew McCutchen who is not only cheaper but has been more consistent striking out just 12% of the time and sits with a .377 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot. Kingery hits down in the lineup but has also been successful against lefties(.364 wOBA, 127 wRC+, .294 ISO) and entered Tuesday night with hits in six of his last seven starts.
Nicholas Castellanos FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.93

The Tigers may rank in the bottom half of the league against lefties overall but they have some bats who really stand out and Castellanos is one of them. He enters tonight with a .413 wOBA, 162 wRC+, and .267 ISO in the split and faces John Means who is one of the biggest regression candidates in the league. It starts with an xFIP(5.12) that is over two runs higher than his ERA(2.96) combined with an xwOBA and xSLG that are higher than his wOAB and SLG %. He has also averaged just over five innings per start and that plays more into the Tigers hands as the O's have one of the worst bullpens in the league(5.99 ERA, 20% HR/FB rate). At his price, I will have Castellanos in my core in all formats.

Also Consider: Austin Meadows(TB), Kyle Schwarber(CHC)

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