Jon Rahm watches his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Quicken Loans National PGA golf tournament, Sunday, June 26, 2016, in Bethesda, Md. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
It was a dominating performance from Brooks Koepka at Bethpage where he won back to back PGA Championships and his fourth major in his last eight attempts(US Open-2, PGA Champ-2). We now shift our focus on the U.S. Open which takes place in a month at the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links. Before we get there, we have a three-event run at some tremendous courses so let's get started.
This week the PGA Tour heads to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. You may not recognize the name as it has had many before it including the Fort WorthInvitational, Dean & Deluca Invitational, and the Crowne Plaza Invitational. One thing that hasn't changed is the course as Colonial Country Club has hosted this event since 1946.
Despite the event coming a week after the new PGA Championship date in May, the field is strong headlined by five of the Top 10(Rose, Molinari, DeChambeau, Schauffele, Fowler) and 18 of the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
From a stats standpoint, we completely switch directions from the bombers mentality at Bethpage as accuracy and precision off the tee is key here at Colonial. The most important stat to focus on the is week is Strokes Gained: Approach as it has proven to be the area where players separate themselves from the field year after year(pic below courtesy of FantasyNational.com). When breaking down those approach stats I will be looking at Proximity from 150-175 yards as that is where the highest number of approaches come from at Colonial.
On average, 60% of all birdies at this event come from the 12 par 4 holes and no more than five of these holes have played under par for the week. This combined with the approach shots mentioned above is where players will separate so I will be looking at Par 4 Scoring in my model as well.
Finally, with an average winning score of -14 over the last five years we are also going to want to weigh birdie or better % high this week.
With all that, let's get into the picks.
Colonial Country Club
Par 70 - 7,209 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet, the tools over at FantasyNational.com, and the Future of Fantasy Golfanac.
Jon Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,200)
FanDuel ($12,000)
The biggest decision this week is at the top with Justin Rose vs. Jon Rahm. If you are multi-entering GPP's, I would suggest getting a piece of both but in a one lineup situation, I lean Rahm. Sure he is coming off a terrible Friday performance and missed cut at the PGA Championship but he returns to Colonial with back to back Top 5 finishes and went into each of those with poor performances the week before(T63 in 2018, T72 in 2017). He has also been good on "less than driver" courses gaining 2.189 strokes total since the start of 2014(via Future of Fantasy). Statistically, looking at my sheet, he also ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Birdie or Better %, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance. I also think Rahm will be lower owned off the missed cut combined with Rose being the better putter and defending champion.
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#13)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($10,900)
It has been a much more up and down season in 2019 as he already has as many missed cuts(3) as he had over the last two seasons combined. With that said, he remains one of the more consistent golfers on Tour having not only made 89% of his cuts since the start of the 2016-17 season he has also tallied 17 Top 10's and 37 Top 25 finishes. While he has missed those three cuts this season, he has also flashed big upside with a win at the Valspar, runner-up at Pebble Beach, and T4 at the Wells Fargo three weeks ago and now comes back to an event where he posted a T10 in his last trip(2017).
Statistically, he is a beast as well sitting 3rd in my model on my sheet and 2nd in FNGC Custom Model as he is 4th in SG: App, 2nd in Fairways Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, and 22nd in SG: Total in Windy conditions over the last 24 rounds. He is a core play for me in all formats.
Emiliano Grillo
World Golf Ranking (#63)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($10,000)
Grillo is down a bit in my models(#20 on my sheet, #37 on FNGC custom model) but from a cash game perspective, is at the top of my PTS/$ list. Through 14 events this season, he has made all but one cut with five Top 25 finishes and now returns to Colonial where he has been successful finishing T55 in 2016, T24 in 2017, and T3 last season. Statistically, he ranks 3rd in SG: Approach, 23rd in overall Proximity(6th from 150-175 yards) and 33rd in Birdie or Better %. While most of my exposure to Grillo will come in cash games, I will also have some shares in GPP formats.
Joel Dahmen
World Golf Ranking (#80)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($8,200)
FanDuel ($9,600)
It feels like I have been on Dahmen every single week and I will be loading up once again this week. Despite a T71 last week, he made the cut at the difficult Bethpage Black and comes into this week having made the cut in seven straight stroke-play events including a runner-up(Wells Fargo) and four Top 20 finishes. Speaking of Top 20 finishes, he posted a T20 here last year in his first trip to Colonial and ranks high in both of my stats models, specifically on FNGC as he ranks 10th in SG: Approach, 15th in Fairways Gained, 11th in Birdies Gained, and 10th in SG: Total in Windy Conditions. I will once again be using Dahmen in all formats.
Brian Stuard
World Golf Ranking (#167)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,600)
When looking at the bottom tier this week, one name jumped off the page right away. Brian Stuard is 12th in my model due to some nice form having made three straight 10 of his last 12 cuts with a Top 5 and five Top 25 finishes. He also ranks 5th among all golfers in the sub $8K range(DK) when looking at DraftKings points per event(65.8) over his last five events. He has finished T32 and T24 in his last two trips here and fits the stats model as he ranks 9th in Fairways Gained and 12th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and also ranks 33rd in SG: Total in windy conditions(last 50 rounds). At these prices, I will have a piece in all formats.
Vaughn Taylor
World Golf Ranking (#186)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FanDuel ($8,200)
I rarely see anyone in this range rank Top 10 in my model so when it happens I love to dig deeper. It makes as he checks almost every box as he comes into this week off back to back Top 20 finishes and has finished Top 20 here at Colonial in each of the last two years. He is the only player in the field with that combination of history and form. He is accurate off the tee(16th on sheet), much better on approach(39th) than off the tee(94th) when looking at strokes gained stats, and ranks Top 20 in Par 4 Scoring, Proximity and Bogey Avoidance.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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