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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/11/19
Welcome to a big day of Saturday baseball! We've got slates throughout the day, but for the purposes of this article we're just going to focus on the main slate. As always, you can access all of our projections for a free trial by clicking the button below.
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Pitchers
Jacob deGrom FD - P 11300 DK - SP 11000
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - NYM
FD - 46.79 DK - 26.21
We've got dueling aces on the main slate tonight, but early returns have our system favoring the one from New York. Don't let the less than amazing ERA fool you - deGrom is up to his old ones again this season, whiffing batters at an astounding 12.6 K/9 while maintaining a walk rate under 3/9. He's essentially had 2 bad starts and 4 utterly dominant ones, and the bad ones just look like a case of variance to me. Tonight he'll draw the Marlins and by far the best money line on the night. The Marlins solidly hold the crown as the best match-up for right handed pitching this season, with the lowest wOBA against righties and the third highest K rate. It's going to be awfully tough to get away from deGrom in cash games for me.
Max Scherzer FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - LAD (Walker Buehler) Park - LAD
FD - 40.2 DK - 22.77
It's pretty crazy to think of Scherzer as an "off beat big tournament play," but given the fact that the Nats are underdogs in this one that's probably where we're landing. As we've said many times, we don't really worry about the moneyline for big tournament plays since a player the caliber of Scherzer is obviously capable of securing a win in any match-up. His peripherals are actually better than even deGrom's this season, with a similar K rate and a minuscule sub 2 BB/9. He's had simply awful BABIP luck this year, allowing a .377 figure that's more than .100 points higher than the levels he's established recently. Let's be clear for a second: the Dodgers are a flat out bad match-up, with a bottom 5 K rate and a top 5 wOBA against righties. All the more reason people will be off him. I love Scherzer as a way to go against the grain tonight.
Kevin Gausman FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7800
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 33.71 DK - 18.28
It's been a rollercoaster ride for Gausman fans recently, with flashes of good results (a sub 4 ERA last year) on okay peripherals, or okay peripherals and good results like this year. With 10 Ks/9 so far this season we can see that Gausman at the very least possesses solid upside, and at cheap prices on DraftKings that makes him a solid pitcher two option. Arizona is essentially a league average match-up, though you don't love the park Gausman has to pitch in here. Still, there just aren't a lot of great cheap pitching options, and unless you want to go double expensive with the above guys or Gerrit Cole, you are going to want to save somewhere.
Catcher/First Base
J.T. Realmuto FD - C 3300 DK - C 4300
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.37
We actually have a reasonable catcher option today! Realmuto's season line looks eerily similar to last year's, with the K rate, BB rate, BABIP, AVG, and OBP being nearly identical to last year's numbers. The power is down some, but at catcher we sort of understand that peak Mike Piazza isn't coming through that door. Realmuto and the Phils draw Brad Keller today - a grounder heavy right hander that has a combined 4 BB/9 and 4.5 xFIP over his brief career. He's just bad. While it's not exciting to stack against a ground ball pitcher, I like the Phillies' collective floor quite a bit here.
Joey Votto FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 3500
Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - SF
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.31
There's no way to slice it: it's been a terrible start to the season for Votto. The power is still absent in the same way it was last year, and everything else seems to have left as well. Still, the drop in his triple-slash lines is probably far worse than it needs to be. Votto's BABIP is almost .060 points below his established levels, and if he were at his normal levels it would bring his season OPS near .800. You're not getting power from Votto right now, but an OBP heavy .800 OPS is plenty for these prices. Samardzija has shown some peripheral improvement this season, but his 4.99 xFIP tells a much more accurate story about his current skill set than the 3.16 ERA. I like the Reds as a stack here especially because of Samardzija's absurdly high fly ball rate.
Brandon Belt FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B/OF 3800
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - SF
FD - 8.71 DK - 6.57
The other side of the Cinci-San Fran game, Belt might be an even better play than Votto here. He's added to his walk rate and is also posting a .235 ISO so far, and he's some bad BABIP luck away from having a truly great season. DeSclafani is sort of a scary guy to stack against right now, though, since he's wielding a K/9 over 10, and is pitching in a park that mitigates his biggest weakness (the homerun ball). Still, Belt is very cheap and DeSclafani's track record of being better is short enough that I'm willing to roll the dice with Belt here.
Second Base
Cesar Hernandez FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 4400
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 9.15 DK - 7.08
Hernandez has officially turned around his slow start to the season, but we don't totally have to pay for it just yet. The 28 year old has returned to (and even exceeded) his excellent 26 year old season, with a balanced .303/.363/.458 line so far. He's got a career best 13% strikeout rate, and has maintained his characteristically high BABIP. Hernandez is slightly better against lefties for his career, but he's platoon neutral enough that we don't need to be concerned with Keller's handedness here. I already gave you the rundown on Keller, and he's a great match-up for Hernandez as well.
Jose Altuve FD - 2B 3800 DK - 2B 4300
Opponent - TEX (Drew Smyly) Park - HOU
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.71
It's been a terrible two week stretch for Altuve, but this is kind of exactly how we get value in daily fantasy baseball. If you think that a career .337 BABIP guy is going to have a .227 BABIP for the rest of the year, I'm not sure what to tell you. I'm assuming that Altuve is the same guy he's always been, and that makes him a terrific value against Smyly. Altuve's quietly a platoon guy as well, with a career OPS .100 points higher against lefties. Smyly has been absurdly erratic so far this year, with career best K rates but career worst walk rates to boot. The Rangers' southpaw is probably a true talent 4.7 xFIP guy, which makes him a juicy target for an Astros stack led by Altuve.
Also considered: Robinson Cano. It's been a tough start to the season, but Alcantara has been flat out terrible as a major leaguer so far. More on him later.
Shortstop
Trevor Story FD - SS 4800 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - COL
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.7
You'd see more Colorado guys today if it weren't for the fact that Lucchesi is actually a competent pitcher. His 5.00 ERA doesn't paint that picture exactly, but you have to take a 25 year old with a career 3.53 xFIP seriously. Still, Trevor Story has positively bodied left handed pitching for his career with a 1.015 OPS against them, and as you can imagine that's even better in Coors. Plenty of great pitchers have had terrible days in Coors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies deal the young Lucchesi a serving of humble pie.
Jean Segura FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.73
More Phillies. You've gotten the case against Keller already, so let's talk about Segura. He's a rock solid platoon neutral shortstop that gets most of his value from hitting 2nd in an excellent lineup. He's also back his 2016 form, with an .800+ OPS thanks to making lots of great content. He's a terrific high floor option today.
Third Base
<img="" id="profilepic" src="https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/static.fantasydata.com/headshots/mlb/low-res/10005589.png" width="43.55" height="60.29" align="left" alt="Alex Bregman">Alex Bregman FD - 3B 4200 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - TEX (Drew Smyly) Park - HOU
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.31</img="">
Perhaps the best Astros play among many today. Bregman is quite simply one of the best hitters in baseball. He's walking more than he's striking out again, and his ISO is up by .036 points on last year's excellent campaign. He's a full .045 BABIP points below his established levels, and he's still got a .940 OPS. Take him on the better side of his platoon against Smyly in all formats, and don't think twice.
Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 4700
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.13
I never know quite what to say about pitchers like Merrill Kelly. I'll put it nicely. He's a non-prospect who looks a lot like a non-prospect so far in his brief major league career, with a high 4 xFIP thanks to a mediocre K rate and a terrible walk rate. Donaldson is known as a classic platoon guy, but you know what he hits even better than left handed pitchers? Bad pitchers. Donaldson looks better than he did during last year's turbulent season, but a decent amount of that is BABIP fueled. Still, Donaldson is too cheap for his upside and I'd be happy to run him here.
A quick word on Arenado: Yes, he's the GOAT when it comes to crushing lefties in Coors. Our system just sees him as a hair too expensive right now. He's obviously a mandatory part of any Colorado stack, though.
Outfield
Yasiel Puig FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - SF
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.18
Jesse Winker FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - SF
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.54
More Reds? More Reds. Winker is an excellent young leadoff hitter whose triple-slash line has been depressed by, you guessed it, bad BABIP luck, and Puig is more of a high upside guy who may have simply just lost it. I love Winker's floor for cash games, but wouldn't touch Puig in them unless you simply need the savings.
Andrew McCutchen FD - OF 3900 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.62
By now you've picked up on the trend that we want to run Phillies today on account of Brad Keller being kinda lousy. McCutchen is what he is at this point - a .790 OPS guy whose value mostly comes from a great walk rate and a high OBP. Not a whole lot else to see here - just play McCutchen if you need a reasonably priced high floor outfielder.
Brandon Nimmo FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 3500
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - NYM
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.67
I'm not sure what to make of Brandon Nimmo right now. Last year he got by by doing a little bit of everything. His 17 homers and 9 steals gave him a little bit of upside. His 15% walkrate and .400+ OBP gave him a terrific floor. All in all, he looked like an exciting young player. Right now it looks like he was dancing on a razor's edge. His Herculean .351 BABIP has come down to a reasonable .297 number. The K rate is up over 30%. The power and steals are both down slightly. It's not amazing. Still, though, he's very cheap, and we haven't even gotten to the match-up yet. Sandy Alcantara is something of a prospect, but it looks for all the world like the Marlins just called him up too early. He's got a 5.15 career xFIP thanks to his disgusting 5.58 BB/9. He's just not ready, and even a light hitting team like the Mets should be able to take advantage.
