FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Tuesday Preview

The Rockets tied the series up at 2-2 on Monday, sending things back to Golden State. Meanwhile, the Bucks took a commanding 3-1 lead over the Celtics. On Tuesday, we get two series knotted up at two apiece.

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76ers (6) vs. Raptors (-6)

Vegas Projected Score: Toronto: 108.75 Philadelphia: 102.75
Over/Under: 211.5
Series: 2-2

The Raptors won a critical Game 4 in Philadelphia that sends the series back to Toronto even at 2-2. There have been a couple of interesting storylines in this series, but I think we need to basically start and stop with Kawhi Leonard.

He’s had a completely ridiculous series for a dude that was already among the very best players in the game. In four games, he is averaging 38 points and nine rebounds in 40 minutes per game. He has an 56.2 net rating for the series and Toronto can ill afford to take him off the court. That’s because their bench has been an epic disaster (and that’s putting it mildly). Short of Serge Ibaka turning in a must-have performance in Game 4 with Pascal Siakam hurt and struggling, they’ve gotten just nothing from anyone off the pine. Fred VanVleet is 1-13 from the field for the series and finally was basically benched (7 minutes) in Game 4.

The same went for Norman Powell who’d been a wreck and was also summarily canned for Game 4. Ibaka played 32 minutes and the Raptors for all intents and purposes went to a six-man rotation. I think we see more of the same in Game 5.

Joel Embiid was sick again for Game 4 and underperformed for one of his worst games of the season. Expect more from him going forward if he’s healthy.

I’m a bit surprised Toronto is a -6 favorite here considering how the series has gone so far.

Philadelphia Value

Jimmy Butler FD - $9800 DK - $7800
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 46.46 DK - 45.44
We’ve written enough about this but it’s worth briefly repeating: Philly has almost completely changed their plan of attack in this series and it’s mean point-Butler to lead the offense. With Toronto (mostly) keeping Kawhi on Simmons, Butler has taken over so much of the offensive load. He was awesome again in Game 4 with 29 points and 11 rebounds in 40 minutes. I only expect the minutes to increase as the series really reaches a breaking point.

J.J. Redick FD - $4400 DK - $4500
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.98
Redick has been (mostly) able to stay on the court in this series, not becoming a defensive liability in games because they’ve been able to hide him in certain rotations. He’s getting up shots, knocking down threes at a 44% clip on ten attempts per game. You are going to live and die with his scoring from a fantasy perspective but that’s fine at these prices.

Toronto Value

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10200 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 60.07 DK - 60.07
I outlined a lot of the reasoning above and there’s no reason to start fading Kawhi at this point in the series. He’s been on lock in our cash games since the start of this series and been a chalk play throughout. He’s been almost the whole team and the Sixers haven’t shown any ability to stop him getting scoring opportunities over and over.

Kyle Lowry FD - $6900 DK - $6300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.61 DK - 38.76
Lowry looked incrementally more confident in Game 4 with his offensive game, putting up 13 shots in 41 minutes and finishing with 14 points, seven assists and six rebounds. the Raptors desperately need his offense at this point and with the way VanVleet is playing, we could see even more minutes out of Lowry in Game 5.

Danny Green FD - $4400 DK - $4200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 26.93
Green only took four shots in Game 4 and still finished with 11 points thanks to a perfect 8-8 from the line. He fouled out thanks to a defensive assignment on Jimmy Butler (and later Simmons) that did get him in some trouble. I’m still mostly buying on the minutes for Green at these prices and the hope that he knocks down whatever three pointers come his way.

Marc Gasol FD - $5500 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.4 DK - 36.03
Look, a lot of the value on this slate still comes from Toronto because almost to a man, the guys have been inconsistent/ bad in this series (other than Kawhi). That’s stagnated their prices. We saw Nick Nurse use Gasol way more in Game 4 to defend Embiid (and because Siakam was so bad). The former played 39 minutes and did show more of a willingness to get the shot up in the air. I still think we are getting him on the cheap if the Raptors continue to shorten their rotations.

Trail Blazers (4.5) vs. Nuggets (-4.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Denver: 109 Portland: 104.5
Over/Under: 213.5
Series: 2-2

The series is 2-2 heading back to Denver and what a series it’s been. Though they may be just duking it out for the right to get blasted by the Warriors (or the Rockets, but probably not) in the Western Conference Finals, this has been a fun set of games so far.

Following a 4OT affair on Friday that saw the Blazers pull off the win with starters playing roughly a gajillion minutes, Denver came back and won Game 4 with a gutty performance.

Denver would seem to have the advantage with two games left at home, but this series has been so close all the way through that we could easily be looking at it going all seven games and decided at the finish.

Portland Value

Kind of none. The Blazers mess around with hot hand and/ or defensive rotations more than any team left in the playoffs. See last game when Seth Curry played 27 minutes (including crunch time) because he was knocking down threes (4-6). Rodney Hood’s gotten similar treatment at times.

Enes Kanter (FD $7200 DK $6100) minutes are mostly solid but the variable production keeps the price kind of in check. You can go here for an upside play.

But I don’t think you’re getting much fantasy-wise from this team when we factor in the DFS pricing.

Denver Value

Nikola Jokic FD - $11200 DK - $10500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 55.39 DK - 57.26
I was wrong on Jokic’s ability to this many minutes over the short term and be effective. He ran 65 minutes on Friday (65!) and came back two days later with 39 minutes and a ridiculous 21 point, 12 rebound, 11 assist line and is averaging damn close to a triple-double for the playoffs. Denver clearly needs every minute out of him for this series and beyond. He makes for such a tough fade on any slate and paying for both him and Kawhi for cash games is likely the way to go.

Will Barton FD - $4700 DK - $4000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 23.07 DK - 23.88
After playing his way out of the starting lineup in the opening round against the Spurs, Barton has been the closing wing over the last two games and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him just get the start back over Torrey Craig in Game 3. Barton played 30 minutes (including crunch time) in Game 4 and has shot well from three (6-15, 40%) over the last two. He’s good enough to guard the Blazers’ backcourt if crossmatched or tasked into those assignments. His price hasn’t fully moved if the role is back to where it was to start the playoffs.