We've got a smaller early slate, and then a medium size main slate tonight, but both present some pretty big challenges. I'll cover the main slate and break it down for you, and if you want our projections for the early games feel free to click the button below and grab a free trial. Let's take a look at see where we can dig up the value tonight.
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Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 35.22 DK - 19.24
It's at least a little awkward to recommend a guy in his second start after a long DL stint, especially given how conservative the Dodgers are generally when it comes to their starting pitchers. That being said, Hill was as good as you could have asked for in his first start back. He struck out 6 Pirates while walking none over the course of 6 innings, and while he gave up 5 runs only one of those was earned. He only threw 85 pitches, but I think we could see him get stretched out slightly here. This Padres team is not quite the doormat they've been in the past thanks to their new additions, but I mean, they're still pretty bad. They're rocking a sub .300 wOBA with a 26.8% K rate against southpaws, so we could be looking at another solid start for Hill. I get why you might not want to play him in cash games, but I'm oddly fine with it.
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT
FD - 28.18 DK - 14.18
Just highlighting Bassitt here as an interesting pitcher two option. I'll break down the others (including the semi-obvious play in Corbin) below, but I think Bassitt is worth highlighting as an interesting case study. He's got 12 Ks in 12 innings so far this year, which is solid. You have to love the .75 ERA, of course. But what can we really make of this sample size? Generally 30 year old "come from nowhere" pitchers are pretty unexciting, and Bassitt is really no exception. Nothing about his approach seems to have changed - only the results. In cases like that we're going to temper our enthusiasm. Still, the Pirates own a sub .300 wOBA against righties, and Bassitt should have a reasonably high floor against them. Bassitt is a pure price play. If you wind up playing him you get to pick any bat you'd like, and that might wind up being worth it in big tournaments on a night where pickings are pretty slim.
A bunch of guys who are have ups and downs.
I'm looking at guys like Zack Wheeler, Patrick Corbin, Jake Arrieta, and the like. I think if you're spending up today you probably just go with Corbin, but can you really feel that great about it? Yes, Corbin is excellent, but that Philly lineup is in the bottom 5 league in terms of striking out vs. lefties and league average in terms of wOBA. Wheeler is an interesting high upside option, but the BB/9 over four is kind of terrifying. All in all it's a pretty uninspiring slate for pitching, so hopefully we can get some good hitters out of the deal.
Opponent - MIL (Gio Gonzalez) Park - MIL
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.59
It's a battle of who is less bad: Gio Gonzalez, or Wilson Ramos. Gonzalez looked entirely hittable in his first start with the Brewers, striking out just 2 batters across 5 innings. And he wasn't particularly good the last time he was in the majors either, with back to back years of mid 4s xFIP. In Ramos you get next to no upside thanks to his .065 ISO, but you do get a guy with a career .821 OPS against left handed pitching. At a terrible position, that might just be enough to hang our hat on.
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - CIN
FD - 12.67 DK - 9.5
Joey Votto is a constant case of "good news, bad news." In good news, his ISO is up this year. In bad news, it's still .056 points below his career numbers. In good news, he's batting leadoff now. In bad news, his K rate is up and his walkrate is down. All this to say, we have probably seen the best days of Votto slip away from us. That being said, do we need peak Votto against Dereck Rodriguez? D-Rod is already a below league average pitcher with his ~7 K/9 and 4.51 xFIP, and getting him out of one of the NL's friendliest pitcher parks and into one of its worst is just not great. I like Votto as an integral part of a Reds stack given that he's on the favorable side of his platoon.
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - MIL
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.08
Thames is often one of the easiest plays on a given slate when he's batting 2nd against a right handed pitcher. He's sporting an .880 OPS this season, and just scalding the ball on the good side of the first base platoon. I nodded to Wheeler briefly above, but like I said, the 4.29 BB/9 so far this year speaks to some very real control issues. Make sure you check your lineups ahead of time, but if you can get Thames in the two hole on the cheap he's a great cash game option.
Also considered: Justin Smoak against Lance Lynn.
Opponent - LAA (Trevor Cahill) Park - LAA
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.19
The Astros are shaping up to be a pretty interesting stack today, and we'll introduce it with Jose Altuve. It's been a relatively quiet 2019 for the Astros diminutive superstar thanks to some absurdly bad BABIP luck (he's sitting a full .107 points below his establish levels), but the underlying numbers are still very solid. His ISO is up past his 2017 peak to .256, and I think we see big things ahead this season. Today he draws a match-up with Trevor Cahill, whose bad start is less luck based. Cahill has been giving up 2.56 HR/9 so far, and has an xFIP north of 5. It's going to be a long season for the Angels' righty assuming he stays in the bigs, and this should be yet another speed bump for him.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.1
Our first Coors play of the day! Freeland wowed everyone with a sub 3 ERA and a 17-7 record as a Rockies' pitcher last year, and while that is laudable, it was also extremely luck based. His 4.16 xFIP is almost identical to last year's 4.22 figure, but without the insane BABIP luck he's got an ERA over 4 this year. Flores has been batting third against left handers this season, and while he hasn't done a whole lot with it, I'll still trust his track record of being .075 OPS points better against lefties for his career. He's cheap for a Coors play, and has plenty of raw power to lift the ball out there.
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - CHW
FD - 13.11 DK - 10.01
Another bad pitcher on the main slate! The 28 year old Banuelos has returned to the majors after a four year absence, but not much has changed. The former Braves prospect is still walking the ball park, with a 4.95 BB/9 in 20 innings pitched this season in spite of pitching many of those innings out of the bullpen. Against a patient Red Sox team, that kind of approach just spells death. You love to get Bogaerts on the better side of his platoon as well, as he has an OPS .090 points better against southpaws for his career. I love Xander as a part of any Boston stack for sure.
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.72
Lucchesi was a popular sleeper pick in season long leagues going into this year based on a double digit K rate and an unlucky ERA last year, but after 6 starts this year he's running into basically the same problems. The underlying peripherals are still excellent, but the raw amount of hard contact he gives up has led to a .344 BABIP and continuing struggles with a sky high HR/FB rate in spite of a great home park. It's been a slow start for Seager, but if you can't afford Bogaerts I think he's a reasonable alternative. I can't say I love his floor though thanks to Lucchesi's great K rate and the spacious Petco Park.
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - TEX
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.19
The consensus on Guerrero Jr. from scouts is that he's a generational talent - the universal top prospect in the game across every major outfit that ranks such things, and a true man among boys in the minors. Yes, it's been rough so far, but expecting him to maintain a .056 ISO and a .250 BABIP given what we saw in the minors is laughable. You can probably trust the higher K rate, but he's walking a lot as well, and I think he turns this around in short order. I'm looking for a 10% price increase for Guerrero in the next couple of weeks. Throw in the AL's best hitters' park and a below league average guy like Lynn and I think we have a solid play on our hands.
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - MIL
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.08
Shaw has been flat out horrible this season, but at this point our projection system thinks the hate has gone too far. I have a hard time believing that Shaw is this much worse than he was last year in just his age 29 season. His K rate has ballooned over 30%, his walk rate has dipped to single digits, and his ISO has dropped .080 points as well. It all seems pretty dire. But man, does he really deserve to be essentially free? I say no, and I believe we can get away with running him against Wheeler here.
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - LAA
FD - 14.46 DK - 10.79
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - LAA
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.3
It took us a while, but we're finally here. Yes, we can stack against Wade Miley today! He's not the very worst pitcher in baseball or anything thanks to his great control, but he's basically throwing batting practice out there with his sub 6 K/9 and sub 2 BB/9. That means it's a great day to chase upside, particularly with baseball's best player. Don't sleep on Brian Goodwin, either. Yes, he's been wildly lucky with a .400+ BABIP, but he's still a solid pairing with Trout for big tournaments thanks to all the hard contact he makes.
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - CHW
FD - 15.36 DK - 11.53
Grabbing Martinez against a terrible lefty is basically always a great plan, and that doesn't change today. Martinez has given back some power this season, but he's also cut his strikeout rate by almost 10%. I'm also not going to worry about the power just yet given that he's coming off of back to back 40+ HR seasons.
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - COL
FD - 14.48 DK - 11.13
We made it this far without any Rockies, mostly because Weaver is legitimately really good. Strikeout pitchers are sometimes okay in Coors, and I think it's tough to pencil in the Rockies for a huge day. Still, I like Blackmon as an interesting tournament play specifically because people could very well be off it, and he's like .070 OPS points better against righties for his career. I kind of like grabbing the Rockies when they will be lesser owned since the upside should still be a possibility in Coors.
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - CIN
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.63
Another part of a solid Cincinnati stack. In spite of a tough start to the season, the hit tool on Winker is absolutely legit, and when the BABIP rounds back into where it should be based on his batted ball profile the production will follow. The lefty will be batting leadoff against the right handed Dereck Rodriguez, and this is a terrific opportunity for him to get back on track.
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