We've had a nightmarish week in terms of weather and luckily, this site has very little rain in the forecast. There are only two games we need to keep an eye on, with Pittsburgh and Arlington projected to have some rain in the forecast. The Pirates game is the only one in jeopardy of a postponement, so we're going to fade that game altogether.
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Opponent - KC (Jorge Lopez) Park - DET
FD - 37.6 DK - 20.02
It's hard to argue with Boyd's numbers this season, as he's truly turned into the Tigers ace. While his 3.13 ERA is nothing special, his 1.02 WHIP and 32 percent K-rate are fantastic numbers. That's why he has a FIP of 2.21, which is much more indicative of his ridiculous form. Facing the Royals is definitely a matchup he can exploit too, with Kansas City ranking 20th in xwOBA, 21st in xBA and 19th in OBP. All that should be huge in a pitcher's park like Comerica and that's why the Royals are projected for less than four runs.
Opponent - BAL (Dan Straily) Park - BAL
FD - 34.95 DK - 19
It's hard to understand why Glasnow is below $10,000 on both sites, as he's simply been one of the best pitcher's in the majors. In fact, Glasnow has posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, striking out 38 batters across 36 innings of action. That alone makes him worth using against anyone, let alone a terrible lineup like the Orioles. Baltimore currently ranks 24th in both xBA and xLG while sitting 25th in xWOBA. Not to mention, Glasnow allowed just four baserunners across seven scoreless innings while striking out seven in his one start against the Orioles earlier this season
Chris Sale (FD $9900 DK $9900) has been much better his last two starts and he's worth considering against his former team considering they rank 22nd in K-rate. If you think he's fully turning a corner away from the early season disaster numbers, then at these prices he would make a fairly straightforward cash game play.
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Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - MIL
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.07
Aguilar was being dropped like a bar of soap last week in season-long formats but his recent production indicates that he's back to his 2017-18 form. Over his last three games, Aguilar is 4-for-7 at the plate, adding three dingers, three runs, seven RBI and four walks to his tally. That's an absurd 2.537 OPS and it's going to be hard to keep him out of the lineup with that sort of run heading into this game. The horrible slump at the beginning of the season has kept his price affordable too and that makes him impossible to fade against a left-hander. Aguilar owns a .915 OPS against southpaws over the last two years.
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - CIN
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.32
Votto has been a huge disappointment the last two seasons but this price is becoming hard to overlook. What we really like about him today is this matchup, as he gets the platoon advantage against Tyler Beede. This is a guy who should still be in Triple-A, as he has a FIP north of 5.00 in the last three seasons in the minors. That makes it hard to believe that he's even up at this level, as Votto should be able to exploit his ugly 16 percent BB-rate in Triple-A last season. Votto always destroys righties too, as he owns a .954 OPS and .440 OBP against them since the beginning of 2017.
Mark Reynolds is worth considering in Coors Field against a lefty. If you need a catcher, Mike Zunino is our highest per-dollar play against gas can Dan Straily.
Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - MIL
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.72
Cano just returned from injury and it's kept his price at a nice number. He was getting hot right before that injury too, as he was 13-for-24 at the plate in his previous seven games before getting hurt on April 27. That's the Cano we all know and love, as he could recapture that form against Brandon Woodruff. Not only does Cano get the advantage from the left side, Woodruff has also posted a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP so far this season.
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - MIL
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.59
This is simply a punt play, as we anticipate Perez entering the lineup against a southpaw. That's really the only time we want to use Perez, as he owns a .795 OPS against lefties since the beginning of 2017. That's monster production from someone in this price range, as Matz is prone for a blowup against a lineup like this in a hitter's haven like Miller Park. Using Perez makes it much easier to get other studs into your lineup too and second base is probably the weakest position on this slate.
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - COL
FD - 15.42 DK - 11.7
This price on DraftKings is tough to use but it's hard to fade him on FanDuel at $4,400. Using Story at home against a lefty is simply a cheat code. In fact, Story owns a 1.047 OPS against southpaws since 2017 and a .946 OPS at home in that same span. That calculates to an OPS approaching 1.500 when he faces lefties at home, which are simply Barry Bonds-like numbers. He comes into this matchup rolling too, collecting four homers and five steals across his last 14 games en route to an OPS above 1.000.
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - CLE
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.33
Lindor is simply too cheap on FanDuel, as he should be north of $4,000. In his first 10 games of the season, the shortstop has generated three homers, six runs and six RBI. He's done that damage while struggling for the most part but facing a lefty here could get him right. In fact, Lindor owns a .931 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of 2017 and he should also have success against one of the worst bullpens in baseball whenever Kikuchi does get pulled early.
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - COL
FD - 15.27 DK - 11.49
Arenado is probably the hottest hitter in the league right now and it's scary that he's doing most of his damage on the road. This is a guy who has posted a 1.053 OPS at home over the last three years and a 1.250 OPS against lefties in that same span. That's obviously ridiculous, as he and Story are the best two-man stack on the board. His recent form is absolutely absurd too, with Arenado collecting five doubles, five homers, 10 runs and 13 RBI over his last nine games.
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TEX
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.18
Cabrera doesn't get the credit he deserves and he's really hit a renaissance in the back-nine of his career. While he is slumping right now, the fact that he's accumulated 15 runs and 19 RBI in 24 games shows that he's still good for counting statistics. That's why he's a great bargain on FanDuel south of $3,000, as it's worth using any hitter in this price range at the second-best hitting park in the majors. Facing Trent Thornton should benefit Cabrera too, as his .349 xwOBA will not play well in a game where the Rangers are projected to score more than five runs.
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - CIN
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.18
Opponent - SF (Tyler Beede) Park - CIN
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.46
Votto was the start of our Cincy stack but Puig and Winker make for a nice three-man against Tyler Beede. The Giants starter's ugly numbers were already emphasized in the Votto write up and that should allow these guys to go off in the heart of the Reds order. Winker is one of the best bets on the board to hit a homer, as his .277 ISO is one of the best marks in the league. While Puig is mired in an early-season slump, he's simply too good of a player to be priced this cheaply. This is a guy with legitimate 30-20 potential and he actually got out to a worse start last season. That means a hot streak is right around the corner and we'll bet on it starting here against Beede in a hitter's park like Great American Smallpark.
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 10.59 DK - 8
It's hard to recommend anyone against Minor with his stellar form but Grichuk is a guy we always want to exploit against southpaws. While his splits are relatively even, his .810 OPS against lefties last season is hard to argue with. Hitting in Globe Life Park should only help, as that's traditionally the second-best hitting park in the majors. Minor is definitely worse against right-handed bats too, as his career OPS is 30 points higher than it is against lefties.
If you're willing to pay up, Joey Gallo is a fine bet to homer at home against Thornton.
Don't forget about the Rays either, as they face off against Dan Straily, who owns a .405 xwOBA. In addition, the Diamondbacks get to hit at Coors Field against Tyler Anderson, who's posted a .413 xwOBA so far his season.
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