(AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE
Track - One Mile Oval
24° of Banking
After Chase Elliott picked up his, Hendrick Motorsports, and Chevrolet's first win of the season, the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to the Monster Mile for the Gander RV 400 on Sunday afternoon.
Dover is a one-mile track but length is where the comparisons end in terms of other one-mile tracks in New Hampshire and Phoenix which are both flat tracks. With it being such a unique track, I will not be looking at track type this week but rather putting more weight on current track history, form, and a mix of practice/qualifying data.
Speaking of qualifying, there will be no more chaos on pit road or drafting as NASCAR this week that is will be going back to single-car qualifying at all tracks except the road courses. That is big for the fantasy game as the fastest cars will more consistently be starting near the front with less place differential values on a weekly basis. This week more than any other should show us that as Dover has one of the highest correlations between starting and finishing position.
From a strategy standpoint, dominator points are at the top of my list on DraftKings as we have seen at least one driver lead 100 or more laps in each of the last six races, four times with two drivers leading 100+ laps. On FanDuel, I will be focusing more on finishing position.
Chase Elliott, coming off a win last week at Talladega, now returns to Dover where he has an elite 4.3 career average finish, his best at any track. He won the playoff race here last October and has finished Top 5 in five of his six races here at the Monster Mile. His chances of going back to back weeks with wins and back to back Dover races with wins look very good.
Martin Truex Jr. won here in the 2016 playoffs and has also been very consistent at the Monster Mile with four Top 5's and eight Top 10 finishes in his last 10 races here with a 6.6 average finish.
The early chalk value play of the week is Daniel Suarez who is just $7,700 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel. The sample size is small but Suarez has been very impressive here at Dover finishing inside the Top 10 in all four career races.
From a fantasy perspective over the last two years, no one has scored more fantasy points than Kevin Harvick. He won the Spring race here last year, has Top 10's in three of those four races, led 451 laps, and averaged 102.6 DK/85.7 FD points per race. Right behind him is Kyle Larson who, with 378 laps led in those four races, is averaging 76.4 DK/82.5 FD points per race here since the start of 2017. He has also finished Top 10 in seven of his 10 career races here(8.8 avg fin) and is one of just three drivers with a sub 10.0 career average finish.
It finally happened! Another manufacturer outside of Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske won a race. Chase Elliott picked up that win last week at Talladega and it was also an impressive race for Chevy who finished 1, 2, 3 and occupied six of the Top 8 finishing positions. Elliott only has two Top 5's in the last six races but has been consistent with the fourth-best average finish(8.8) in that timeframe.
It is no surprise who sits at the top of the form and season points standings. Kyle Busch has two wins over the last six races, three on the season and has pushed his Top 10 streak to 12 straight races(going back to Phoenix in November). With those three wins along with a series-leading 603 laps led, Busch has also dominated from a fantasy perspective averaging 83.1 DK/79.6 FD points per race this season.
Kurt Bush hasn't led a lap over the last six races but has remained consistent with four Top 10's and the second-best average finish(7.7).
Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are the only two drivers with four Top 5 finishes in the last six races. For the season, Hamlin is right there with teammate Kyle Busch as he has two wins(Daytona 500, Texas) and eight TOp 10 finishes(2nd most). For Logano, he has just one win on the season but is one of three drivers with six Top 5's and has also led the third-most laps(370) in the first 10
races.
*These picks are coming after qualifying but before the final two practices. Please refer to my sheet and YouTube video for final picks following the final practice on Saturday.*
Chase Elliott
He is #1 in my post-qualifying model and for good reason, as he checks all the boxes. He comes in with momentum off his first win of the season and also won the last race here at Dover back in the playoffs. Like I mentioned above, he has finished Top 5 in five of his six trips to the Monster Mile in his Cup career. From a PTS/$ perspective, Elliott is my top pick in all formats.
Martin Truex Jr.
Truex has been very successful here at the Monster Mile posting a Top 10 in eight of his last 10 races with a win in the playoff race in 2016. He has also led 518 laps in that time which is second to only Kevin Harvick's 1,297. Truex will start 13th this week which gives him some place differential upside and a good opportunity to work his way forward and also give us some dominator upside. Stay tuned for final practice results to see where he ranks in my final model but he appears to be in play in all formats.
Kyle Larson
It has been a terrible start to the season for Larson and the #42 team who have just two Top 10 finishes and an ugly 18.6 average finish but it's hard to ignore the price on DraftKings. The good news is that he returns to a track where he has been consistent with four Top 5's, seven Top 10's, and an 8.8 career average finish. There is a ton of risk here as he is also starting 3rd this week so reserve for your GPP lineups only.
Daniel Suarez
Suarez is the value play of the week on DraftKIngs in the mid $7K range. Despite a small sample size as he has only been in the Cup Series for two years, he returns to Dover with some terrific track history. He has Top 10 finishes in all four races including a 10th place finish in the playoffs where he had to start back in 19th. He starts 14th this week and is at the top of my list to watch during the final two practices.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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