FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Round Two Thursday-Friday Preview

Thursday's got just the one game going tonight, we've broken down some of the changes Philly made in Game 2 to deal with the Raptors' defense. James covers the Bucks and Celtics going into Game 2 for Friday. And finally, we look at how the Trailblazers targeted Nikola Jokic specifically in their Game 2 win on Wednesday.

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Raptors (-1.5) vs. 76ers (+1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Toronto - 108.75 Philadelphia - 107.75
Over/Under: 216.5
Series: 1-1

Going into Game 2, I was concerned with Brett Brown’s ability to adjust the Sixers’ scheme to deal with some major issues they had (and we likely to continue having) with the Raptor’s on the offensive end. Last season, against Boston who brought a plan to stop/ severely impede Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons’ and Brown failed to make any adjustments. The result was the Sixers going home.

In Game 1, Brown brought in Furkan Korkmaz and Boban in a curious first quarter rotation that predictably was a disaster. It was a minor thing maybe, but indicative that there were reasons to be concerned. They also failed to properly contain the Leonard/ Siakam duo who got to the basket over and over and basically torched the individual defensive assignments.

In Game 2, with Embiid playing sick the Sixers changed up some of their offensive approach. Namely, they appeared to have a decided effort to get Jimmy Butler involved in a way they’d often not done during the regular season, especially when he and Embiid shared the court. On many a possession, the plan was clear: get the ball out of Simmons’ hands (when Kawhi was his primary defender) and run off ball actions for Butler to get the latter good looks. Here are three examples from various points during the game.

Here’s a possession midway through the first quarter. In a half court set, Simmons has Kawhi as the primary defender. There’s no urgency to get moving toward the basket with Butler running a baseline action, using JJ (and Lowry) as a mini pin down on Siakam. The look is easy.

Near the end of the first quarter, after a Siakam basket, Butler is the primary ball handler. Simmons stations cross court removing Kawhi from the point of action completely. Butler comes off the Harris-Monroe double screen to get Gasol into the mismatch. Jimmy misses but again, this brand of offense is meant to use Butler much more to their advantage.

And finally, from the third quarter. On the possession prior, Butler had beaten Siakam off a pick and roll with Embiid in which Jimmy got Siakam behind him and Embiid sucked the help defense away. On this one Simmons sets the half-court action, but it’s only to get things moving. Butler comes off the Monroe handoff, and gets both defenders all the way down to the basket. It’s a miss but again illustrates part of the plan.

I get that 2/3s of these examples were misses, but it really doesn’t matter. Butler led the team in shots (22) and finished with a team-high 30 points. The Sixers won a playoff game in which Embiid and Simmons combined for 18 points and 13 rebounds (again, combined!). Butler and the Sixers plan of attack was the major reason.

Toronto Value

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10300 DK - $9200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 58.67 DK - 58.67
Pascal Siakam FD - $8500 DK - $7900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.64 DK - 46.54
After a Game 1 that saw these two just pound the Sixers into a pulp on offense, there were some struggles in Game 2. Kawhi’s final line looked good with 35 points on 13-24 shooting, but he forced some tough three-point looks and shot only 3-10 from beyond the arc.

Siakam had a real tough first half and though he led the team in shots (25) only scored 21 points on 9-25 shooting (2-7 from three). From a DFS perspective, I’m fine going back to the well on both because the usage rates are just so damn high. That being said, Toronto is going to have to find more than just two options on offense. I’m confident in the minutes for both of their stars, but we could see a slight shot decrease in the short term if they look for a balanced attack.

Kyle Lowry FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.5 DK - 41.74
Lowry asserted himself a bit more in Game 2, going 7-16 fro the field and finishing with 20 points, five assists and five rebounds in 42 minutes. He looked shaky at times, but overall we should continue expecting these kinds of minutes. With Toronto looking increasingly less confident in their bench minutes, Lowry, Siakam and Leonard should continue playing a ton.

Philadelphia Value

Jimmy Butler FD - $7400 DK - $7100
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.24 DK - 42.13
I went through a lot of the reasons above. If this is going to be a new role in the offense with such a high minutes’ floor then he’s an easy play. I suspect he’s chalk.

J.J. Redick FD - $4400 DK - $4600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.98
I thought Redick would get almost played off the court defensively in this series, but that hasn’t been anything close to the case. The Raptors haven’t hunted him down at all, choosing to just continue with Kawhi/ Siakam actions that pretty much let JJ off the hook. He got up eight threes in Game 2 and finished with an underwhelming line, but I’m fine using him as salary relief considering he still played 36 minutes.

Note: Friday's games are not currently on DraftKings for a two-day slate. We'll update projections if/when DK updates their contests.

Bucks (1.5) vs. Celtics (-1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Boston - 111 Milwaukee - 109
Over/Under: 220
Series: 1-1

With two games under our belt in this series, we have two 20+ point blowouts. It looks like the Bucks will cruise to a sweep - wait a second, the Celtics and Bucks each have a 20+ point blowout under their belts? Well this is getting complicated, isn't it? On a high level blowouts tell us very little about what each team plans to do, but there actually are a few takeaways we can draw from this one, I think.

Boston Value

The Horford/Irving show was put on hold for at least game two, but unfortunately this game really didn't teach us too much about how the Celtics will continue to adjust to Milwaukee's speed and length. It didn't teach us nothing, though, so let's have a look. Hey, if Vegas thinks this is going to be a 2 point game they should play a close one at some point, right. Right?!

Marcus Morris FD - $5600 DK - $
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 0
Our very own James Davis famously called that the Celtics would start running Morris for extended minutes, and that certainly still seems to be the plan going forward here. Morris actually led the Celtics in fantasy points in game two, even it was a rather modest 29 fantasy point contribution. Still, that's plenty on his current prices at a truly dismal position, and it stands to reason that the Celtics will continue to rely upon him as a long and athletic body given that that's been their plan in the last three meetings between these teams.

Jaylen Brown FD - $5100 DK - $
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.98 DK - 0
Brown was the one piece that the Celtics simply couldn't get away from in game two, even as Stevens tried to shuffle the other pieces around to give the Celtics more life. Like Morris, Brown brings much needed length to the wing position. He can credibly switch onto Giannis, and he's really the Celtics' only answer for Middleton as well. He's now led the Celtics in minutes in both games of this series so far, and while he isn't going to be a volume shooter in this series he contributes enough across the board that he's a totally playable fantasy option at another thin position.

Al Horford FD - $7000 DK - $
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 35.07 DK - 0
Horford was less effective in basically every facet of the game in the second contest of this series, going from 0 to 5 turnovers while shedding all of the defensive stats he tantalized us with during game one. Still, he was plenty effective on the offensive end (6-10 from the field) and the glass (8 boards), and given that he's also in the pretty elite "can switch onto Giannis" group I think his normal rotation is something like 35 minutes if these two teams can manage to play a close game.

Milwaukee Value

While we didn't learn a whole lot about the Celtics, I think we actually did learn quite a bit about what the Bucks plan to do when they're not getting completely destroyed. As we predicted, Mirotic entered the starting lineup for game two and greatly altered the minutes on the Bucks' end. Let's take a look at how that impacts the fantasy value we have here.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11300 DK - $
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 63.46 DK - 0
Khris Middleton FD - $7500 DK - $
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 34.57 DK - 0
It sure looks like the only two "safe" Bucks are going to be Middleton and Giannis, but can I criticize his Holiness Coach Bud for a quick second? Listen, we've been as big a believer as you can possibly be on what he would do for the Bucks this season, and it's all played out magically. But can we agree on just playing our stars high 30s/low 40s minutes like every other sane team in the league? Do we really need 50-55 combined minutes out of Pat Connaughton and George Hill in the playoffs? I actually think there's plenty of upside to come from these two, and I'll go on record right now as being completely confused if the plan for close games going forward is less than 35 minutes per game for either. That should make them something of a value here, so I'm still a buyer.

Nikola Mirotic FD - $3900 DK - $
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.94 DK - 0
Mirotic drew the start in game two and only played 25 minutes, though there were plenty of good reasons for that. The Bucks blew the Celtics out, for one. Mirotic wound up in foul trouble as well. But he also sort of sucked offensively, right? 1-5 from 3, and just 9 points total across those 25 minutes. Still, Mirotic contributed enough on the boards (9 rebounds) and defensively (4 total defensive stats) that he more than paid his paltry prices. I think he'll play 30+ minutes if he continues to start, and that we're still in a buyer's market for a guy who's getting increased opportunity in a time where basically nobody else is.

The fallers I'm selling my Lopez and Bledsoe stock for now. Lopez should theoretically be able to stay on the court against Horford, but he's been terrible so far and I don't think you need to lock him down for cash games. As for Bledsoe, it sure looks like Coach Bud seems him as something like interchangeable with George Hill. Bledsoe is a more dynamic player overall, but Hill is the much better three point shooter, and that seems like the bigger need for the Bucks in this series. Spacing is incredibly important against a great defense like the Celtics, and they have to respect Hill and his multiple recent seasons of 40%+ shooting from deep. Heck, I might be talking myself into Hill as an interesting tournament play.

Nuggets (4) vs. Trail Blazers (-4)

Vegas Projected Score: Portland - 109.75 Denver - 105.75
Over/Under: 215.5
Series: 1-1

Portland tied the series up in Game 2, winning 97-90 on the road in Denver in a game that got close near the end but honestly really felt all that much in doubt.

I mentioned in the last write up that Nikola Jokic’s minutes could end up being a problem for Denver if fatigue was going to be an issue. He played 43 in Game 7 against the Spurs on Saturday. Then tuned it around two days later and ran 41 in Game 1 of this series. It was clear he was getting gassed late in both games even though Denver won both.

It sure seemed like Portland knew this and made it a point early and often to hunt down Jokic and make him work hard on the defensive end. Here are the four of the first five Portland possessions of the game.

#1 - CJ rolls around Kanter/ Jokic and ultimately for a total clear out:


#2 - Literally the same exact action as the first possession



# 3 - Off an inbound, Denver switches assignments, but that’s fine, now Harkless can just take Jokic off the dribble.


# 4 (Possession 5) Same exact action as #1 and #2.


You get the point. This went on all game long in various forms. Later it was more Kanter/ Collins coming up for high screens to get Jokic moving around the perimeter. There are literally too many examples to give.

Jokic still played 37 minutes, putting up a fantasy relevant 16 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists including some highlight reel passes. But there’s a real chance the Blazers are going to continue working overtime to wear him down. They again have a quick turnaround. This will be Denver’s fourth game in seven days. No rest for the weary here.

Portland got key scoring contributions from guys other than their two guards. Rodney Hood, Al-Farouq Aminu and Zach Collins were all double-digit in scoring.

Denver Value

Paul Millsap FD - $4900 DK - $
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.39 DK - 0
Millsap struggled at times in this game, though he finished with a very good fantasy line of 14 points and 11 rebounds. He missed some point-blank shots and had some mistakes but you love the final output in terms of DFS. I think we continue to see him as a chalk play, especially on FanDuel.

Denver has some injury issues that could affect some DFS value for Friday. Jamal Murray and Torrey Craig were both playing injured at the end of Game 2, though I suppose it's worth noting that they were both at least playing. Murray had a leg issue and Craig was playing with a broken nose. We'll have to wait on their statuses going forward.

Portland Value

Rodney Hood FD - $3500 DK - $
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.87 DK - 0
Mo Harkless sprained his ankle in Game 2 and never returned for Portland. His status is unclear going into Game 3, but if he was out then we could see a lot of Rodney Hood. Heck, we could see a lot of Hood regardless. He’s been excellent in this series and was particularly effective spelling Harkless. Hood went for 15 points and three rebounds in 27 minutes, knocking down a pair of clutch threes and even getting to the line. He seems almost for sure next up in line to draw the start if Harkless can’t go.

Enes Kanter FD - $7000 DK - $
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.52 DK - 0
As I mentioned above, the Blazers wanted to use Kanter as much as possible to establish a post game and work Jokic. The former, for a second series in a row, isn’t a liability on defense like he’s been in the past and this matchup doesn’t have him completely exposed. He should continue to see solid usage and he’s been getting on the boards as well averaging eight rebounds a game through the first two.