FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Round Two Wednesday-Thursday Preview

Wednesday and Thursday feature one game each in the NBA with Trailblazers and Nuggets playing Wednesday followed by the Sixers and Raptors on Thursday. Let's break down what to expect in each affair.

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Trail Blazers (4) vs. Nuggets (-4)

Vegas Projected Score: Denver - 111.75 Portland - 107.75
Over/Under: 219.5
Series: Denver 1-0

Denver survived a seven-game series against the Spurs by the skin of their teeth, looking real shaky at times (especially late game against San Antonio in the final game). But they started this second round on a positive note, beating the Blazers by eight thanks to some opportune rotations by Mike Malone and good three-point shooting.

This matchup provides Denver with some tactical advantages, mostly around their size with Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee. We’ll get into their respective minutes in a moment, but it was clear Denver wanted to exploit some big man advantages against Enes Kanter and company.

Meanwhile, Portland played its bench a bit more than expected with guys like Aminu and Harkless getting the short end of the minutes’ stick when it was all said and done. Tactically this series is far from set in stone and we could see some more *odd* rotations before it’s all said and done.

Portland Value

If Game 1 is any indication, this is going to be a tough team to roster going forward. Only Damian Lillard (FD 10200 DK 9400), C.J. McCollum (FD 7700 DK 6700) and Enes Kanter (FD 7000 DK 6000) played anything like *starter’s* minutes. Of that group, Kanter is still the best value going with Lillard and CJ now priced almost all the way up for their production and usage rate throughout the playoffs.

Kanter had a very good Game 1, finishing with 26 points and seven rebounds. His defense wasn’t terrible to the point of having him benched and really, at this point, the Blazers might just be pot-committed with the big man. They have few options off the bench with Meyers Leonard and Zach Collins struggling with Denver’s size.

Denver Value

Nikola Jokic FD - $11800 DK - $10300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 55.39 DK - 57.26
Jokic played a staggering 40 minutes for Denver in Game 1. I say staggering because this is probably an unsustainable amount of minutes for the Joker. Henry Abbott wrote as much in this excellent piece. Cliff’s Notes: Big men like Jokic simply can’t play this much. It has cascading effects on his performance. The devil’s bargain of course is that Denver needs Jokic as much as any team still in the playoffs needs one single player. If you think 40+ minutes going forward is the new normal, then he’s a very tough fade on a two-game slate. Dude finishes Game 1 with 37 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Portland had very few answers for how to defend him. The only question now is how much he plays going forward.

Mason Plumlee FD - $4100 DK - $3600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 19.31 DK - 18.59
The Nuggets were much more inclined to run double-big lineups in Game 1 with Plumlee seeing 24 minutes off the bench. He isn’t going to repeat the defensive stats (5 steals and a block) but he did add six points and six rebounds. He makes for an interesting punt-type play, coming close to the minimums on both sites. At this point in the playoffs on these short slates, this is about as much salary relief as you can ever hope to have.

Paul Millsap FD - $4900 DK - $5200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.17 DK - 28.35
Millsap only played 28 minutes on Monday, but finished with 19 points and six rebounds. He had some moderate foul trouble again, but Denver didn’t seem pressed to over exploit him in any matchup. I do think we see the minutes tick up to the low 30’s again and he’s coming cheap enough on FanDuel that I think we see him as a chalk play once again in their two power forward set up.

Raptors (-1.5) vs. 76ers (+1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Toronto - 108.75 Philadelphia - 107.75
Over/Under: 216.5
Series: 1-1

Going into Game 2, I was concerned with Brett Brown’s ability to adjust the Sixers’ scheme to deal with some major issues they had (and were likely to continue having) with the Raptor’s on the offensive end. Last season, against Boston who brought a plan to stop/ severely impede Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons’ and Brown failed to make any adjustments. The result was the Sixers going home.

In Game 1, Brown brought in Furkan Korkmaz and Boban in a curious first quarter rotation that predictably was a disaster. It was a minor thing maybe, but indicative that there were reasons to be concerned. They also failed to properly contain the Leonard/ Siakam duo who got to the basket over and over and basically torched the individual defensive assignments.

In Game 2, with Embiid playing sick the Sixers changed up some of their offensive approach. Namely, they appeared to have a decided effort to get Jimmy Butler involved in a way they’d often not done during the regular season, especially when he and Embiid shared the court. On many a possession, the plan was clear: get the ball out of Simmons’ hands (when Kawhi was his primary defender) and run off ball actions for Butler to get the latter good looks. Here are three examples from various points during the game.

Here’s a possession midway through the first quarter. In a half court set, Simmons has Kawhi as the primary defender. There’s no urgency to get moving toward the basket with Butler running a baseline action, using JJ (and Lowry) as a mini pin down on Siakam. The look is easy.

Near the end of the first quarter, after a Siakam basket, Butler is the primary ball handler. Simmons stations cross court removing Kawhi from the point of action completely. Butler comes off the Harris-Monroe double screen to get Gasol into the mismatch. Jimmy misses but again, this brand of offense is meant to use Butler much more to their advantage.

And finally, from the third quarter. On the possession prior, Butler had beaten Siakam off a pick and roll with Embiid in which Jimmy got Siakam behind him and Embiid sucked the help defense away. On this one Simmons sets the half-court action, but it’s only to get things moving. Butler comes off the Monroe handoff, and gets both defenders all the way down to the basket. It’s a miss but again illustrates part of the plan.

I get that 2/3s of these examples were misses, but it really doesn’t matter. Butler led the team in shots (22) and finished with a team-high 30 points. The Sixers won a playoff game in which Embiid and Simmons combined for 18 points and 13 rebounds (again, combined!). Butler and the Sixers plan of attack was the major reason.

Toronto Value

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10300 DK - $9200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 58.67 DK - 58.67
Pascal Siakam FD - $8500 DK - $7900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.64 DK - 46.54
After a Game 1 that saw these two just pound the Sixers into a pulp on offense, there were some struggles in Game 2. Kawhi’s final line looked good with 35 points on 13-24 shooting, but he forced some tough three-point looks and shot only 3-10 from beyond the arc.

Siakam had a real tough first half and though he led the team in shots (25) only scored 21 points on 9-25 shooting (2-7 from three). From a DFS perspective, I’m fine going back to the well on both because the usage rates are just so damn high. That being said, Toronto is going to have to find more than just two options on offense. I’m confident in the minutes for both of their stars, but we could see a slight shot decrease in the short term if they look for a balanced attack.

Kyle Lowry FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.5 DK - 41.74
Lowry asserted himself a bit more in Game 2, going 7-16 fro the field and finishing with 20 points, five assists and five rebounds in 42 minutes. He looked shaky at times, but overall we should continue expecting these kinds of minutes. With Toronto looking increasingly less confident in their bench minutes, Lowry, Siakam and Leonard should continue playing a ton.

Philadelphia Value

Jimmy Butler FD - $7400 DK - $7100
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.24 DK - 42.13
I went through a lot of the reasons above. If this is going to be a new role in the offense with such a high minutes’ floor then he’s an easy play. I suspect he’s chalk.

J.J. Redick FD - $4400 DK - $4600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.98
I thought Redick would get almost played off the court defensively in this series, but that hasn’t been anything close to the case. The Raptors haven’t hunted him down at all, choosing to just continue with Kawhi/ Siakam actions that pretty much let JJ off the hook. He got up eight threes in Game 2 and finished with an underwhelming line, but I’m fine using him as salary relief considering he still played 36 minutes.