DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/1/19

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Pitchers

Jose Berrios FD - P 10200 DK - SP 9900
Opponent - HOU (Brad Peacock) Park - MIN
FD - 31.91 DK - 16.94

It feels like every ace pitcher was on the bump on last night's main slate but despite the quiet Thursday, we are left with some nice second-tier options. My top choice is Jose Berrios and you are probably wondering why. First of all, Noah Syndergaard is arguably more talented but has struggled mightily this season and is not safe for cash. The second ? is the matchup against a Top 5 offense but hear me out as they are on the wrong side of every single split. Their numbers are considerably lower over the last week to 10 days vs. the season numbers, they are much better at home vs. the road, and much better against left-handed pitching vs. right-handed pitching. Then we look at Berrios' splits and see he has been a different pitcher at home posting a 2.83 ERA, 3.28 xFIP and allowing just a .242 wOBA against at home in Target Field(4.74 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, .342 wOBA on the road). All things considered, I will have exposure to Berrios in all formats.
Jon Gray FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8000
Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - MIL
FD - 30.88 DK - 16.46

After Berrios, who isn't a slam dunk himself, the options are pretty thin on this small slate. Gray's matchup is no better as the Brewers are a Top 10 offense but it appears they will once again be without MVP Christian Yelich which is a considerable upgrade. Gray is a pitcher I am always looking to target away from Coors Field and while he got blown up in Atlanta in his last start, he has allowed just five earned runs combined in his other three road starts this season. He makes an excellent salary relief GPP option on FanDuel and can be considered in all formats as the SP2 on DraftKings.

Also Consider: Charlie Morton(TB) or Matt Strahm(SD) 

Catcher/First Base

Daniel Murphy FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - MIL
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.92

The Rockies are right near the top of my list on this slate despite their overall and road struggles this season. The good news is that they have been better lately with a collective .346 wOBA and .229 ISO over the last two weeks. Daniel Murphy has been consistent since returning to the lineup April 24 and went into Wednesday night with hits in five of six games with three doubles and two home runs. The matchup is what stands out most as they face Freddy Peralta who has failed to get out of the fourth inning in back to back starts giving up 10 earned runs total and multiple long balls in each. If Murphy is back up near the top of the lineup, he will be a core play for me in all formats.
Joey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3800
Opponent - NYM (Noah Syndergaard) Park - NYM
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.17

At first glance, this looks like fade but hear me out. First of all, the matchup is not as scary as it looks as Thor has really struggled this season giving up four or more earned runs in five of his six starts and has walked a whopping eight batters over his last three starts. I get that Votto is not impressing once again and has a lack of upside but the price reflects this now as he is in the $3K range on both sites. One thing he won't give you on a regular basis is a zero in your lineup and he entered Wednesday night with hits in five straight and eight of his last 10 games. I am not in love with the play at all but if you need some salary relief, it makes sense.

Also Consider: Freddie Freeman(ATL)

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4000
Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - NYM
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.62

The Mets bats provide a ton of value today in a plus matchup against a struggling Tyler Mahle. After two impressive outings to start the season, he has given up 4+ earned runs in three straight starts with a whopping 47% hard contact rate. For me, it starts with Cano who is very affordable on both sites and has really picked it up lately with a .429/.474/.629 slash line over the last two weeks and has dropped his K rate by 5% vs. the season totals. At these prices, it feels like a buy-low, especially on this small slate and I will have exposure in all formats.
Jonathan Schoop FD - 2B 2600 DK - 2B 3900
Opponent - HOU (Brad Peacock) Park - MIN
FD - 8.2 DK - 6.28

On DraftKings, I will be paying up the extra $100 for Cano in all formats but on FanDuel I will give consideration to Jonathan Schoop in the mid $2K range. The pickings are slim tonight and while Schoop doesn't really stand out in any area and hits down in the order, he has been consistent lately with hits in four straight and 11 of his last 12 games with eight extra-base hits. I will take value wherever I can get it on this slate and no better place than in the middle infield.

Also Consider: Whit Merrifield(KC)

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD - SS 4400 DK - SS 5000
Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - MIL
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.12

If we are going to be targeting the Rockies on this slate, we are going to want exposure to one or both of their beast-mode hitters. For me, I will be siding with Story who has hit righties much better and has the overall edge in average(.280), OBP(.344), home runs(7), runs(22), and ISO(.237). I mentioned the matchup against Peralta above and will add that if he was to not go deep once again it would be another plus for the Rockies bats s the Brewers bullpen is one of the worst in the league with a 4.70 ERA and 17% HR/FB rate.
Jorge Polanco FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - HOU (Brad Peacock) Park - MIN
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.53

The matchup for the Twins doesn't exactly scream upside as Brad Peacock has been solid with a 3.67 ERA overall. As a starter, he has held Cleveland and Texas to one run apiece but got tuned up by Oakland(5 ER) and by these Twins(3 ER). Those Twins lead the Central and have the second-best win %(.643) in the AL and in large part to their offense. Polanco has easily been there best everyday player slashing .320/.389/.600 and the switch-hitter has been MUCH better against right-handed pitching with a .445 wOBA, 182 wRC+, and .329 ISO. He is my favorite PTS/$ shortstop in all formats.

Also Consider: Dansby Swanson(ATL) as a GPP play who hits lefties well

Third Base

Yandy Diaz FD - 3B 4100 DK - 1B/3B 4700
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.86
Daniel Robertson FD - 3B 2300 DK - 2B/3B 3300
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.67

The Rays are currently topping the list when looking at implied runs(4.8) and the matchup is what I am keying in on. They face Danny Duffy who returned from shoulder stiffness to make his debut last Friday and wasn't very sharp giving up three earned runs and striking out just one while walking three. This is the same Danny Duffy who struggled to a 4.88 ERA/4.92 xFIP a year ago and for some reason, really struggled at home as well.

I was off with Diaz yesterday as he collectively went 0 for 8 in the Rays double-header but I am going back to the well on Thursday on this small slate. Despite a smaller sample early in the season, he has been elite against left-handed pitching with a .499 wOBA, 223 wRC+, and .360 ISO.

Another Rays hitter who has been successful against lefties is Daniel Robertson. Since the start of last season, he has posted a .367 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and .843 OPS in the split and is near min price on both sites giving him huge PTS/$ value on this small slate if he is in the starting lineup.

Also Consider: Nolan Arenado(COL) if paying right up or Todd Frazier/J.D. Davis(NYM) whoever gets the start against Tyler Mahle

Outfield

Jeff McNeil FD - OF 3200 DK - 3B/OF 4300
Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - NYM
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.58

Here is what I wrote yesterday about McNeil:

McNeil impressed in a second-half call-up in 2018 posting a .329 average and .381 on-base percentage over 63 games. He has more than picked up where he left off in 2019 as he went into Tuesday night hitting .347 with .441 on-base percentage with the expected stats(via MLB Savant) sitting just slightly lower meaning this success is very sustainable. McNeill is in play in all formats on both sites but his best value comes on FanDuel in the low $3K range.

I couldn't have said it better myself! As I write this, he already has a hit and in play once again if back in the leadoff role with a price that only went up $100 on FanDuel in an arguably better matchup.
Josh Reddick FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4000
Opponent - MIN (Jose Berrios) Park - MIN
FD - 8.23 DK - 6.3

I hardly ever target players against my top pitcher so that alone should tell you everything you need to know about this slate. When I do go against my pitcher I usually look for value so it is still possible both can pay off. For the Astros, one bat that sticks out is Josh Reddick who has been providing exellent secondary offense hitting down in the order. He has hits in 10 of his last 13 games including six multi-hit efforts pushing his average up to .352 for the season to go along with an elite .404 on-base percentage. If you are using any other pitcher than Berrios, he is in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Charlie Blackmon(COL), Brandon Nimmo(NYM)

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