FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Round Two Sunday Preview

 
The very worst teams have been eliminated, and the real NBA playoffs begin. We've got two dynamite 1-4 match-ups today, and two series that many people believe may as well just be the conference finals. I'm not sure these series will be as close as some people believe they will be, but let's just dive into it and see where we can find some DFS value.

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Celtics (7.5) vs. Bucks (-7.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Milwaukee - 115 Boston - 107.5
Over/Under: 222.5
Vegas sees both of these series as what we'll call "close, but clear," with Milwaukee and Golden State both showing up as healthy game one favorites. Milwaukee has the slightly bigger spread at -7.5, but for all intents and purposes I think we can set aside blowout risk for the sake of projecting these games. That's actually a pretty sizable difference from round one, where we had concerns about starters' minutes for all four of the teams playing today. Milwaukee held a narrow 2-1 series lead during the regular season, which was decided by a one point victory in their only meeting in 2019 around the All-Star break.

Milwaukee, though, gets arguably the biggest bump of any of the teams going today. Detroit with no Blake (or at least no fully healthy Blake) was embarrassingly overmatched, but that theoretically shouldn't be the case for the Celtics here. As a result we're giving the Bucks' starters roughly 10% more minutes, which is a significant difference maker here. I personally feel as though people are overrating the Celtics based on their seemingly decisive round one victory over the over-achieving Pacers, and of all the round two series we've got going this is the one where I think blowouts are the most likely. Still, let's get to some of the value.

Milwaukee

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11000 DK - $10000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 59.34 DK - 61.12
Khris Middleton FD - $7600 DK - $6200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.96 DK - 37.58
Brook Lopez FD - $6500 DK - $5600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 29.34 DK - 29
Yep, I'm buying essentially all of the Bucks' starters for this one. I'll even throw Eric Bledsoe on this list as well, though the Bucks seem to view him as more interchangeable with his back-ups than the above guys. It's very tricky here, because we really haven't seen the Bucks play a close and meaningful game since they clinched the 1 seed against Philly on April 4th. Giannis played 35 minutes in that game, and 36 minutes in the prior close game (also against Philly) on March 17th. Yes, the Bucks have played two close games in the last 40 days. In those games, though, we saw Giannis and Middleton clock 36 minutes and the Bucks try to play Lopez and Bledsoe 33 minutes. If we pencil the Bucks in for these increases they immediately become top tier plays, as their prices have become depressed after a month and a half of blowouts and rest.

Boston

Unlike the Bucks, who have a very clear set of starters and pecking order, things for the Celtics get a little bit murkier. We saw them vacillate between leaning on Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris in round one, and it's not at all clear who they will go to more in a very different match-up with the Bucks. We know that Morris was called on for 32 minutes in the last meeting between these two teams, which makes sense since he can far more credibly stick Giannis than Brown can. If I were taking a stab at a big tournament, he would be a very interesting bench option.

Another big question surrounds Aron Baynes. Can the Celtics really start both he and Horford against the Bucks? Sure, one of them can try and cover Lopez, but where is the other supposed to go? It wouldn't shock me at all to see Morris simply slide into the starting lineup, which would make him a great play in all formats.

Game four against the Pacers is mostly a red flag for me when it comes to wanting to play any Celtics at all, though. We saw Kyrie mostly disappear in spite of playing 37 minutes. We saw solid games from Al Horford and Gordon Hayward, but that wasn't a hard and fast rule throughout the series by any means. Once again the Celtics' depth and versatility makes them more difficult to predict than any of the other three teams going today, all of whom seem better poised to truly consolidate their opportunity into the hands of a very small number of players.

Rockets (5.5) vs. Warriors (-5.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Golden State - 115 Houston - 109.5
Over/Under: 224.5
It's a series that basically everyone has been hungry for since the playoff seeding was decided, and the Warriors have finally obliged in beating the 8th seed Clippers. It's funny, I have a similar feeling about this one that I do about the Bucks/Celtics series, where I think most people are underrating the Dubs and overrating the Rockets. You can hear popular pundits saying things like "I think the Rockets win this!", which implies they have a greater than 50% chance to take this series. I think that's absurd. While this series could absolutely stay close, it just seems like hyperbole to grab the Rockets straight up, regardless of what they did to an inferior Jazz team. I do think, though, that it will stay close enough that we shouldn't worry about starter minutes, which is nice.

That isn't to say that the case for the Rockets doesn't have some things in its favor. Using straight regular-season point differential isn't going to be totally meaningful for teams that saw important players miss significant chunks of time. The Rockets won the regular season series 3-1, which Golden State's only victory coming in a 106-104 nail biter in March. Let's turn to that relatively recent game to figure out what we should expect these teams to do here.

Golden State

It's funny, the best Warrior in the March game was Demarcus Cousins, who is obviously no longer with us. We also saw the Dubs pivot off of starting a true center at all against the Clips, running out Shaun Livingston alongside the big four as a nod to the fact that the Clips were leaning smaller themselves. I suspect that the Warriors will go back to giving Bogut 25 minutes here, since their small-ball lineups could have some issues with Capela. There's a scenario where they put Green on Capela and play off of PJ Tucker, since the Rockets really generate most of their offense from smaller players. Still, that's risky enough that I don't think the Warriors start there.

Of even greater interest is the questionable status for Curry and Klay. Both left game 6 against the Clippers, only to return and officially be listed as questionable. I'm not putting too much stock in this for our projections purposes but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. Curry has said he'll be "fine," but Kerr called Klay's sprain "significant." If he were to sit, that would obviously open up significant opportunity for the other starters, and whoever got the call instead of him. Monitor this very closely.

Draymond Green FD - $7600 DK - $6700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.5 DK - 36.08
Kevin Durant FD - $10800 DK - $9100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 50.32 DK - 51.55
So it's interesting, because aside from Boogie basically none of the Warriors paid their prices in their last meeting with the Rockets. They're also all pretty expensive on a day with basically no punts, which isn't really where we want to be. Still, if I had to choose two I'd lean on Durant and Draymond. After watching Durant eviscerate the Clips, it's hard to imagine him not being the alpha dog against a Rockets team that's even less equipped to deal with him. As for Draymond, he just seems like an absolutely mandatory piece against the Rockets, and I think you could argue that he plays 40 minutes a game in this series. He won't shoot much, but he should contribute across the board at a thin position.

Houston

In their previous meeting, each Rocket starter play 31+ minutes, and that wasn't even in the playoffs. I think Houston will sell out on their starters completely here, especially in game one, and that we should plan accordingly.

James Harden FD - $17000 DK - $10100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 59.29 DK - 61.82
Clint Capela FD - $12000 DK - $6500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.7 DK - 38.8
Harden's resume speaks for itself by now. If the Rockets are to compete in this series, he is going to need to be absolutely electric. He does pose defensive issues for the Warriors, and while they shouldn't struggle as much as the Jazz did, he should still get his. I like him less against the Dubs because of some of the particulars of this match-up. As Zach Lowe pointed out, the Jazz really want to find a way to leave Gobert at home under the rim, and Harden just destroyed them from deep. The Warriors will feature 4-5 defenders that can switch onto Harden (if only briefly) that should make getting free threes more difficult. I still think he's a great play, but it's unclear that it's the exact spot you want to pay up for him given some of the other options here.

One guy I think you can absolutely spend on, though, is Clint Capela. The Rockets played him for 40 minutes in their previous meeting with the Warriors, and while some of that may have been to match him with Cousins, they obviously aren't scared about leaving him out there when the Warriors go smaller. He presents enough of an offensive mismatch that he makes that a pretty painful call for the Warriors to make, and every minute he forces the Warriors to play Bogut has to be considered a win for Houston. It's no mistake that he led this team in minutes in that game, and I think we see the Rockets go back to that recipe here.

Eric Gordon FD - $9500 DK - $4900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.72 DK - 28.72
P.J. Tucker FD - $11000 DK - $4600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.79 DK - 23.58
Solid lineup filler today. The minutes should be secure, and Tucker in particular should see huge ownership on FanDuel where his position is bad and his price is cheap relative to the 35+ minute rotations we can expect here.