Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - Geico 500

Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.

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Geico 500

Talladega Superspeedway - Talladega, AL
Track - 2.66 Mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway
33° of Banking

After a week off for the Easter holiday, the Monster Energy Cup Series returns to the track this weekend for the Geico 500 from Talladega Superspeedway. We usually discuss plate racing when coming to Talladega but this race will be a little different with the new rules package. NASCAR no longer uses restrictor plates and instead will be moving forward with the new tapered spacer like we have seen at all other tracks since the Daytona 500. This will make the cars 550 HP across the board and the cars will also include the air ducts at the front. What kind of racing will this produce? No one really knows at this point and teams only have two Friday practices(60 and 50 min) to figure it all out.

Qualifying will be Saturday afternoon and this race is another impound race. It is different than Richmond, however, as the qualifying tech will take place before qualifying starts. This makes things so much easier from a lineup construction standpoint as we won't have to wait until hours before the race for a confirmed starting lineup.

Generally, at Daytona and Talladega we are looking to build around place differential. It makes sense as 12 or more drivers have picked up double-digit place differential in four of the last six races here. Last year was also a unique year as we normally don't see dominator points playing a part but Kurt Busch led 100 laps in the fall race and Joey Logano led 70 in Spring race here.

Another trend to look at is the dominance of Ford here at Talladega lately. Each of the last seven and 10 of the last 13 winners were driving a Ford.

Let's now take a look at some track history, current form, and then jump into the picks.

Last Six Winners at Talladega

• Aric Almirola(started 4th)
• Joey Logano(started 9th)
• Brad Keselowski(started 6th)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(started 1st)
• Joey Logano(started 16th)
• Brad Keselowski(started 7th)

Track History at Talladega

Looking at the last two years track history, no driver has been more consistent than Aric Almirola. He won the playoff race here last fall and is the only driver to finish inside the Top 10 in each of the last four races and one of just three drivers with three Top 5's in that time. Joey Logano and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. are the other two drivers with three Top 5's in the last four races and each also has a win in that time. Denny Hamlin only has two Top 10's in the last four races but has the second-best average finish(8.8) in that time. In the value range, don't forget about David Ragan. He disappointed with a 39th place finish here in the fall but had finished Top 10 in three straight before that.

From a career track history standpoint, Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have lapped the field with their eight combined wins at the track. While Brad has the overall edge with five wins, Logano has been much better lately with three wins and five Top 5 finishes in his last seven Talladega races.

We also can't talk Talladega without mentioning Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and his stellar career numbers. Dega is, by far, his best track and in 11 career races, he has already won once with five Top 5's, seven Top 10's, and a series-leading 10.6 average finish.

Track Type History(Plate Tracks)

I have labeled this section plate track despite there being no more restrictor plates which were replaced by a tapered spacer. Until we have more data on this new tapered spacer at Daytona and Talladega I will continue to look at drivers who have excelled on these tracks in the past.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the only driver in the Cup Series with multiple wins on plate tracks and has one at each. He hasn't been the most consistent, however, as that honor goes to Aric Almirola who leads all drivers with multiple starts with an impressive 11.4 average finish with Top 10's in four of those eight races. Right behind him is a number of drivers who have shown consistency on the plate tracks led by Denny Hamlin(13.1 avg fin) and Joey Logano(14.4 avg fin) who each have a win in that time.

Other notable drivers who have shown some consistency on plate tracks are Ryan Newman(13.0 avg fin), Paul Menard(14.6 avg fin), Alex Bowman(15.8 avg fin). And while it was a different package at Daytona in February, Ryan Preece and Parker Kilgerman impressed with an 8th and 15th place finish respectively.

Current Form

Through nine races, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske are the only teams with a win and all crowd the top of the standings. Let's start with the JGR drivers that are popping.

With an 8th place finish last week, Kyle Busch pushed his Top 10 streak to 11 races(going back to Phoenix 2018) and sits atop the 2019 standings with three wins and a 3.9 average finish!! Denny Hamlin sits third in the standings behind Logano due to stage points but sits right behind Busch with two wins and is tied with him with six Top 5 finishes and has a 5.6 average finish on the season. With his first short track win and first win fo the season last week, Martin Truex Jr. crept up to 6th in the standings and has Top 10's in six of the nine races.

For Team Penske, Brad Keselowski has two wins(Atlanta, Martinsville), five Top 10's and an 11.9 average finish. Joey Logano has just one win but has been more consistent with five Top 5's, six Top 10's, and a 9.0 average finish. It has been a wild ride for the third member of the team, Ryan Blaney. He has four finishes inside the Top 5 but five finishes outside the Top 20 but he remains just inside the Top 10 in the standings.

While it hasn't been the start Kevin Harvick had hoped for, he has still been very consistent to start the 2019 season. He is still winless but has four Top 5's and is third to Busch and Hamlin with his seven Top 10 finishes and is currently 4th in the standings.

It has been another slow start for the Chevrolet teams and leading the way is Kurt Busch in his new ride for Chip Ganassi Racing. He is 7th in the standings with three Top 5's, six Top 10's, and an 8.9 average finish. The only other Chevy inside the Top 10 of the standings is Chase Elliott in 10th who has just one Top 5 and two Top 10 finishes.

Post Qualifying/Practice Targets

Brad Keselowski/Joey Logano

Penske teammates Logano and Keselowski are my top two drivers to build around this week. They have combined to win six of the last nine races here at Talladega and Ford's have won seven straight and eight of the last nine. No matter where they qualify I will have heavy exposure to these two drivers.

Aric Almirola

The shock here is the mid $8K price tag on DraftKings. He won the race here in the playoffs and returns to Dega with five straight Top 10 finishes. He also leads all drivers with multiple starts on plate tracks in average finish(11.4) since the start of the 2017 season. Fire up Almirola in all formats.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

I also thought we would see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. more expensive this week considering this is his best track. He won the Spring here in 2017 and has finished Top 5 in four of his last five races here. Depending on where he qualifies, he is very close to being a core play for me in all formats, at least on Draftkings.

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.