FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Saturday 4/27/19

 
We've got a Spurs team that won't die, a Denver team that looks shook, and a series between a 2 and a 3 seed that is already over if Twitter is to be believed, even though it hasn't even started. At the very least all of the teams with legitimately no chance have been eliminated, and the real playoffs can begin! Let's do this.

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Spurs (5.5) vs. Nuggets (-5.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Denver 109 - San Antonio 103.5
Over/Under: 209
Series: 3-3

It's our first game 7 of the 2019 NBA playoffs! It's been something of a strange trip, but here we are. Both of these teams have looked great at other times and totally stilted at others, but at the very least we can say they are pretty evenly matched. In spite of the Spurs' 17 point victory in game 6, Vegas hasn't changed its tune at all, here, with Denver continuing to be favored by 5.5 points at home. Let's have a look at what each team believes to be its "final form."

Denver

Early returns from our system has it loving basically all of the DEnver guys here at current prices. What makes DFS an interesting game tends to be that the best value plays are the ones that have been underperforming recently. Short blips in performance can cause prices and ownership to go down, and on two game slates we need to take value wherever we can find it.

All that said, the Nuggets have consolidated opportunity in a way that can be concerning for DFS players. Yes, guys like Paul Millsap are cheap, but he's also doing next to nothing from a DFS perspective. The Nuggets seem ready to ride or die with the combination of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray at the cost of scoring production from their other members. The offense ran through Jokic almost entirely in game 6, and it was shocking to see the Nuggets lose in spite of his wild effectiveness. If you were to tell someone that Jokic went 19-30 from the floor with 12 boards and 9 assists against just 2 turnovers, but the Nuggets suffered a blowout loss, I'm not sure what they'd even say to you. It's clear at this point that Jokic is a truly safe superstar, but where else can we turn?

Torrey Craig FD - $4600 DK - $4400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 24.46 DK - 24.21

I wasn't a big believer in Torrey Craig when he got the call to start game 4, but he's absolutely provided the Nuggets with a spark. He's got 24 rebounds across his 3 starts, and has gotten involved offensively in different ways, chipping in both points and assists. He's still cheap, and he should have a high floor as a cheaper option.

Heck, I still think you can play Harris and Millsap at their current minutes as well, but understand that it's not exactly for the feint of heart.

San Antonio

If Denver is basically too cheap across the board, San Antonio is too expensive. They've shown too much willingness to mix things up for my blood, with early series heroes like Derrick White losing minutes and priority being given to guys like Rudy Gay.

LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan will obviously continue to be involved no matter what, but is this really where you want to pay up when they're playing in Denver with everything on the line? I personally am going to try and find value elsewhere.

76ers (6.5) vs. Raptors (-6.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Toronto 114.75 - Philadelphia 108.25
Over/Under: 209

Hey, we finally get to write up another series preview! The Raptors won the season series 3-1, though that can be unreliable when you have teams that have as many players coming and going as the Sixers and Raptors did throughout the regular season. Vegas sees the Raps as 6 point home favorites here, which suggests that they are roughly 3 points better on a neutral floor. That seems about right to me. After their respective first round series, though, it seems like a lot of people are ready to just pour dirt on the Sixers.

I spoke with DFSR's own basketball expert Doug Norrie about this series off the air, and he made plenty of compelling points in the Raptors' favor. First of all, they seem to match up exceedingly well. The mid-season acquisition of Marc Gasol paid off in spades in round one, as Gasol plied his defense-first approach to completely take Vucevic out of the series. Now Embiid is obviously a significantly tougher challenge than Vuc was, but Toronto has very obviously shored up their biggest weakness there. If the Raptors can stick Lowry on JJ Redick that leaves them with a plus defensive match-up everywhere else, which will really force the Sixers to find holes rather than force the issue with their own game plan. The Sixers aren't known for being super flexible offensively, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Let's take a look at what our system is seeing for DFS purposes.

Toronto

Right now our system is bullish on every Toronto starter with the possible exception of Kyle Lowry, who averaged fewer than 10 shots per game in the first round tilt with the Magic. It really seems as though the Raptors will want to go all in on their starting unit here due to the defensive mismatches Philly's starters can create, and I think we see even greater minutes consolidation here than we did in the Magic series. Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam are two obvious plays here, but Danny Green is a cheap shooting guard option our system turned to a handful of times in round one. Green' defense should also be needed since he can credibly switch between Redick, Simmons, Butler, and Harris, and I think he plays high 30s minutes per game.

Marc Gasol FD - $5900 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.78 DK - 29.51

One guy I'm particularly interested in is Marc Gasol. We saw him sit around 25 minutes a game for most of the series, but most of that was due to the fact that the Magic just gave up on trying to feed Vuc. I can't imagine Philly giving up on Embiid here, and it's hard to imagine the Raptors trying to answer him with Siakam or Ibaka with all of the other size they have to contend with. Gasol was put on Earth to defend true centers, and Embiid is most certainly that. I think we could see Gasol average 32 minutes (the way he did in game 1 vs. the Magic) and be one of the better points per dollar players on the basis of his across the board contributions.

Philadelphia

Our system likes the Toronto side better here, but it doesn't see the Philly side as valueless either. We'll learn a lot about which Sixers we want to play after game one. Toronto could throw a number of defensive looks at the Sixers here, but my gut tells me that they are going to try and make JJ Redick beat them. Redick is cheap at a tough position for value, and I'd be happy to run him here.

J.J. Redick FD - $ DK - $
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0

Jimmy Butler FD - $ DK - $
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0

Of particular interest is how the Raptors wind up deploying Kawhi on defense. My guess is that he'll make Ben Simmons' life a living hell, which could leave Jimmy Butler in an interesting position. Embiid and Simmons had some special moments in round one, but they also happen to play the two positions that the Nets are weakest against. The Raptors will have nowhere near the difficulty the Nets did, and I think we see Harris, Butler, and Redick be more valuable as a result.