FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Wednesday 4/24/19

 
Damian Lillard daggered the Thunder on Tuesday night to finish off that series. Plus the Raptors and Sixers both won in blowouts to move them each on to the next round. On Wednesday, both the Warriors and Rockets will have a chance to advance.

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Jazz (8) vs. Rockets (-8)

Vegas Implied Score: Houston 110.5 - Utah 102.5
Over/Under: 212.5
Series: Houston 3-1
The Rockets weren’t able to close out the series on Monday with the Jazz forcing a Game 5 in Houston. In general, Harden and company were disappointing in Game 4, scoring less than 100 points and struggling to get much going on the offensive end of things. They completely disappeared in the fourth quarter, scoring only 12 points which was their ultimate demise.

Even with that speed bump, it sure does seem like Houston still has the series firmly in check and one can imagine them coming out with more a sense of purpose in this one.

Utah Value

Royce O'Neale FD - $4500 DK - $4000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 21.43 DK - 21.53
As predicted, the Jazz played even more Royce O’Neale in Game 4, using his defensive presence to mark Harden for crunch time. I’m not sure this is going to be the ultimate way they go, reducing Joe Ingles’ minutes to nothing and playing a defense+Mitchell deal. But O’Neale is something of a bargain if he’s going to see mid-30’s minutes. He double-doubled in Game 4 with 11 points and 11 rebounds, which is about the most you can expect of the guy from a fantasy perspective.

Ricky Rubio FD - $7400 DK - $5700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.41 DK - 32.16
O’Neale’s presence actually helps the Jazz keep Ricky Rubio on the court even more because the latter isn’t forced to guard either Harden or Paul, making it easier to hide their point guard. This translated to 39 minutes and an 18 point, 11 assist line. Expect the Jazz to keep going with what worked in Game 4.

Jae Crowder FD - $4700 DK - $4300
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.81 DK - 24.56
He continued to start for Derrick Favors and was effective from the field going 8-13 and 3-8 from three. He allows the Jazz to play more stretch defense and matchup better the Rockets considering they are playing PJ Tucker at the four.

Houston Value

James Harden FD - $11800 DK - $10400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 56.96 DK - 59.26
Look, the team basically starts and stops with Harden. This much isn’t any kind of secret at this point. On a short slate, in a game the Rockets surely want to just close out to finish the series, it’s tough to imagine fading him even against a Jazz team that’s maybe found a combination they like on the defensive end in crunch time. Even with the Warriors’ big guys going here, it’s an easy sell on Harden who’s had an up and down series.
P.J. Tucker FD - $6000 DK - $4600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.96 DK - 24.15
On these short playoff slates, it’s best to determine which players a certain team simply can’t live without on defense and target those minutes. Tucker fits the bill on this one and he’s tasked with doing a ton for the Rockets. He’ll never be much of a fantasy dynamo, but if he can hit his corner threes, grab the occasional steal and rebound then he’s not yet priced out of contention for cash games.

Clippers (14.5) vs. Warriors (-14.5)

Vegas Implied Score: Golden State 124.5 - Los Angeles 110.5
Over/Under: 235
Series: Golden State 3-1
The Warriors lost Game 2 in historic fashion, lost Demarcus Cousins in Game 3 and yet still look firmly in control of this series. It was tough to expect much else really. While their path to the championship might not be quite as smooth and inevitable as we once assumed, this is still a team that should handle business in Game 5 and be out of the first round.

Los Angeles Value

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $5500 DK - $4700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.72 DK - 27.43
It’s easy to forget that this guy is a rookie playing meaningful and productive minutes against the best team in the land. He’s averaging 30 minutes per game and 14 points, three assists and two rebounds per game. Those numbers won’t wow you, except he’s still coming cheap enough on DraftKings to consider running him in cash games if he’s going to play 30+ in a close (ish) game.

Strongly consider JaMychal Green (FD $4200 DK $3900) who drew the start for Zubac in Game 4. He played 22 minutes and is a good enough defender to stay on the court for longer if the game can stay anything like close.

Golden State Value

Stephen Curry FD - $10000 DK - $8300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 50.73 DK - 53.83
Curry was a disaster in Game 4, shooting 3-14 from the field (1-9 from three) and finishing with just 12 points. He chipped in 10 rebounds and seven assists which helped keep him out of the fantasy basement, but overall it wasn’t what we were expecting from Steph. I’m fine though that it kept his price relatively in check and he for sure still stands to see a usage bump (albeit slight) with Cousins off the court.

Kevin Durant FD - $10500 DK - $8200
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 51.2 DK - 51.99 I don’t know another way to put it, but the Warriors’ prices on DraftKings are a total joke. KD led the Warriors in shots in Game 4, going 12-21 from the field and finishing with 33 points, seven rebounds and six assists. While we might have some decisions to make on FanDuel, DraftKings allows us to stack the big 3 from the Warriors and not have to think too hard about it. It would mean fading Harden, but that almost seems like an acceptable risk. Also, re: Durant, it makes sense that he had his best rebounding game of the series when Cousins was out of the mix. He’ll likely be the highest-owned player on the slate.

Klay Thompson FD - $6700 DK - $6100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 37.4
Klay shot the lights out of the place in Game 4, going 12-20 from the field and 6-9 from three. You love the usage, but obviously have to understand that his fantasy bones are going to be made with scoring (especially the three-ball). Again, he’s still a value if this is going to be something around the usage with Cousins off the court, though the moderate price increase on both sites makes it a bit closer than it was last game.