FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Monday 4/22/19

 
The first round of the playoffs is starting to come to an end. On Sunday, the Celtics finished off the Pacers. Meanwhile, the Blazers, Warriors and Raptors all took another step toward ending their respective series.

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Bucks (-12) vs. Pistons (+12)

Vegas Projected Score: Milwaukee -120 Detroit - 108
Over/Under: 218
Series: Milwaukee 3-0

Blake Griffin returned for Game 4 of the series but it didn’t matter all that much. The Pistons rolled out a starting lineup of Reggie Jackson, Wayne Ellington, Luke Kennard, Griffin and Andre Drummond and were able to keep it the closest they’ve been able to all series. But they still lost by 16 and this thing looks almost for sure headed for a sweep.

Since this is a two-game slate, I don’t think you’ll be able to avoid the blowout in this game all together. So we’ll have to find at least some value from this game. Luckily, there are some possibly underpriced guys rolling into Monday.

Detroit Value

Blake Griffin FD - $9100 DK - $7700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 40.52 DK - 42.78
Griffin returned from injury and started for the Pistons in Game 3. From a fantasy perspective, he was excellent putting up 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists in 31 minutes. He was efficient from the field, shooting 10-24 and leading the team in usage rate. The Pistons clearly are better with him in there and if there was any chance of him playing max minutes, then a Game 4 elimination game would be the one.

Wayne Ellington FD - $4600 DK - $4300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.9 DK - 25.69
The Pistons ran Ellington 39 minutes in the loss on Saturday hoping his shooting would be able to help pull them in the game. Theoretically, he should see better looks with Griffin on the court thanks to the letters’ ability to distribute. Ellington isn’t coming cheap at this point, but the lower middle tier value with the expected minutes is enough to roll out there as a quasi-punt play.

Milwaukee Value

Man, it’s tough to find much to love (from a price standpoint) on the Bucks simply because they’ve been destroying the Pistons every game and that doesn’t stand to change going into Game 4.

The Bucks just haven’t needed to play anything close to max minutes in this series which is an issue considering they are, to a man, still priced rather aggressively. On the off chance the Pistons can actually keep it close for a game (which is asking a lot), then Giannis is still a relative bargain on DraftKings.

Guys like Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are still much too expensive for 30 minutes of court time expectation and Sterling Brown, while starting, just doesn’t do a whole lot on the court in this scheme.

Houston Value

James Harden FD - $11800 DK - $10500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 56.05 DK - 58.34
Harden roasted the Jazz for the first two games in the series before cooling off in Game 3. It mattered not in the wins department, butI suppose it did serve to keep the price *in check* leading into Game 4. He still got to the line 16 times and finished with 22 points and 10 assists. He’s still averaging 28 points, 10 assists and eight assists for the series.

Eric Gordon FD - $5100 DK - $4700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.4 DK - 26.03
If we are looking at players who just stand to see something close to max minutes in the middle tier, then Gordon does check that box. He played 39 minutes in Game 3 (the only close game mind you) and finished with 12 points and five rebounds. He was 4-11 from the field and I can see this as being his minutes floor for Game 4 as long as the game stays close and Rockets are looking to close things out.

Strongly consider PJ TUCKER who also could play minutes close to 40 if the game stays close. He ran 35 in Game 3 and finished with a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds). His defensive versatility is what wins the day on his minutes even if the Game 3 fantasy production was something of an outlier.

Utah Value

Ricky Rubio FD - $6900 DK - $5900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.4 DK - 33.17
Rubio’s played consistent minutes this series (about 32 per game) and put up a 14 point, seven assist line so far. He’s still something of a deal on DraftKings at less than $6K. The Jazz have felt *comfortable* enough with his defense to keep him on the court for this long of a period mostly because they need at least something of what he brings on offense.

Jae Crowder FD - $4100 DK - $4000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 19.84 DK - 20.46
Royce O'Neale FD - $4300 DK - $3500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 17.28 DK - 17.36
Crowder drew the start in Game 3 for Derrick Favors as the Jazz tried to flip into a smaller lineup to contend with the Rockets. It *kind of* worked in that they kept it the closest of any of the three games. Crowder was pretty ineffective in 24 minutes but I do expect him to start again and I think that was for sure the lower end of his expected production if he’s in this role.

Meanwhile, O’Neale picked up a bunch of bench minutes with the Jazz using him to guard Harden more in the half court. He played 29 minutes and finished with five points and two rebounds. He’s rarely a fantasy contributor, but on a short slate we can try to punt with him if he’s going to run close to 30 again.