DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/22/19

Monday's MLB slate brings us plenty of question marks when it comes to pitching. Can Chris Sale start to turn things around after a horrific start to the season? Is Brad Peacock going to go far enough into the game? Who else can we even consider at starting pitcher? There's plenty to answer plus some interesting stacks for a Monday in baseball action.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

Pitchers

Chris Sale FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8600
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - BOS
FD - 42.14 DK - 24.32
If you told me about two months ago that we’d have a chance to play Sale at sub $9K on FanDuel against the woeful Tigers then I’d have been convinced the sites had just messed up their pricing algorithm and we were looking at a near-universal play. But Sale’s struggled out of the gate early this season, striking out batters at only a 17% clip (less than half of what he’s done of the last two seasons) thanks in some part (or in whole part) to a reduction in velocity on his fastball. That being said, the velocity ticked up a little last game even if the results didn’t. On this shorter slate, I feel like we need to plug our nose and roll Sale in cash games as a -215 home favorite. If there were other ace arms going here with heavy win odds, I don’t think I’d take the risk.

Brad Peacock FD - P 8100 DK - SP 8200
Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - HOU
FD - 33.35 DK - 18.08
Peacock will take the start for the Astros on Monday after making his last two appearances out of the bullpen. He’s had two previous starts this season with mixed results. One was a 6 2/3 inning, five strikeout, one earned run game against the Rangers in Texas. Then he was roughed up for five runs in an as many innings against the A’s. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Pitching is kind of a mess on this Monday slate which is about the only reason we are considering Peacock in cash games. He comes in as the second-highest money line favorite at -180 and even if the innings projection is a little lower than a *normal* starter, he does have K upside when things are clicking.

Strongly consider Joe Musgrove (FD $9000 DK $8100) against the Diamondbacks. He's not as good as the 0.81 ERA would suggest with the xFIP sitting at 3.67. But dude still has a 5.25:1 K:BB ratio on the season and has gone seven innings in two of his last three starts.

Catcher/First Base

Steve Pearce FD - 1B 2200 DK - 1B/OF 3600
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - BOS
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.64
There are definitely some inflated run lines on this slate, and we aren’t going to have to spend all that much for pitching so fitting some popular stacks won’t be all that tough. Pearce rings in as one of the best values on the slate assuming he’ll be in the middle of the order for the Red Sox against Matthew Boyd. In 120 plate appearances against lefties in 2018, Pearce had a .59 OPS and .407 wOBA, some of the best numbers in the league in this split. He’s coming very cheap on FanDuel especially and allows you to really go for the mountaintop with the rest of your bats.

Jose Abreu FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - BAL
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.4
Abreu has struggled some out of the gate this season, hitting to a low .600s OPS thanks in some part to BABIP issues and a lowered Hr/FB rate. He’s striking out more than he has over his career though the walks are up some this season. He and the White Sox are in a good spot against David Hess though who really only has one good game under his belt this year. Abreu is basically platoon neutral for his career and has a respectable .852 OPS and 130 wRC+ over about 2300 plate appearances against righties.

At catcher, strongly consider Welington Castillo (FD $2700 DK $4000) if he’s starting against David Hess

Second Base

Jonathan Villar FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B/SS 4500
Opponent - CHW (Manny Banuelos) Park - BAL
FD - 12.52 DK - 9.77
The Orioles are tough to watch on a night in-night out basis but it doesn’t mean we can’t occasionally find some of their bats to roster. Villar should be in the leadoff spot against the lefty Banuelos who’s struggled with control at basically every stop of his major and minor league career. His 36 major league innings aren’t all that different from the minor league stops and he’s averaging close to five walks per nine while struggling to strikeout major league batters. Villar, as a switch-hitter is platoon neutral for his career and for a leadoff hitter is coming at a solid mid tier value.

Robinson Cano FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B 3300
Opponent - PHI (Jake Arrieta) Park - NYM
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.54
Cano is coming pretty cheap on Monday, especially on DraftKings at only $3300. His strikeouts are up a bit this season to about 22% (13% for his career) and he’s struggled to get much going with the bat so far. That’s led to a massive price decrease across the board. But dude’s got a 47% hard contact rate and a BABIP around 50 points lower than his career average. To me, this points to a guy ready to have some *luck* issues turn around and I’m fine buying low against a low-K arm like Arrietta.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4300
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - BOS
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.7
I’ll get to why I’m just a little hesitant to stack Red Sox on this slate, but our system sure is calling on these guys as great values in this matchup against the lefty Boyd. Not only do they go righty-heavy down the lineup when facing a lefty pitcher, but most of the team is coming pretty cheap right now as they struggle a bit on offense. Xander’s been mostly fine this season with a mid-.800’s OPS and career best 13% walk rate. He walked 18% of the time against lefties in 2018 and the patience at the plate has him as a decent cash game option at these price points.

Marcus Semien FD 3500 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.8
Dollar-for-dollar, I much prefer Xander here in his matchup, but there's a case for Semien as well considering the latter should hit leadoff against the lefty Mike Minor. Semien was fine in this split last season, sporting a .758 OPS while walking more than 10% of the time. It's rare to find shortstops hitting leadoff for their respective teams, but that's what keeps Semiens price up just a little over others at the position.

Third Base

Travis Shaw FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - STL
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.4
Shaw draws a tough matchup against Jack Flaherty on Monday, not a situation we usually want to run a bat in cash games. But here we are looking at price where Shaw is coming darn near the minimums on both sites. It's because he's really struggled out of the gate, striking out way more than his career numbers and posting a mid-.500's OPS. That's bottom of the barrel for sure. But when he's making contact, the hard contact rate is the best of his career (43%) and he's had some BABIP issues. The Hr/FB rate is due for some regression as well and we are buying at the total bottom here.

Matt Carpenter FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - MIL (Adrian Houser) Park - MIL
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.06
He isn't as cheap as Shaw of course, but Carpenter will be in the leadoff spot when the Cardinals face the Brewers on Tuesday. Milwaukee will run out a bullpen approach to their pitching which does make things tricky from a matchup standpoint. But Carpenter is coming firmly in the middle tier on both sites which is probably a little low for his skill set. He walks at a near elite level, is tough to strike out and might just be running a little bad in the power department right now with three dingers and only a 9% Hr/FB rate.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - BOS
FD - 15.63 DK - 11.89
J.D. Martinez FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - BOS
FD - 15.59 DK - 11.7
Betts and Martinez will, for sure, cost you on this slate but should be worth it. It’s a little dicey stacking Red Sox bats against Boyd who’s putting together an excellent season striking out more than 13 batters per nine. But this is also a guy who’s put together multiple seasons of a high-4’s xFIP and sub 8k/9 strikeout numbers.

Betts was the very best hitter in baseball against lefties last season with a 1.207 OPS and .488 wOBA in that split while walking (17%) more than he struck out (13%). Meanwhile, Martinez has brutalized southpaws for his career with a .270 ISO, .949 OPS and 153 wRC+ in this platoon. Because the Red Sox are struggling, we are getting these guys at a slight discount which does help make up for the fact that the matchup isn’t necessarily ideal.

Charlie Blackmon FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - COL
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.82
David Dahl FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - COL
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.43
If you don’t want to stack the Red Sox OF against the lefty (and I wouldn’t blame you for that call) then the Blackmon/ Dahl pairing should be right up there near the top. The Rockies facing Jeremy Hellickson in Coors has Colorado bats in a great spot. Hellickson is a low-K arm who owns a K% under 20% over the last four seasons. That could be death for Coors and it’s just one reason the Rockies come in with such an inflated run line.

These two guys *should* hit 1-2 in the order with Blackmon in the leadoff spot. He hasn’t found much of the power stroke this season with only two home runs in his first 100 plate appearances, but this is a guy averaging about 30 home runs per season over the last three. With the hard contact rate in line with what he’s done in the past, we should see some regression on his 7% Hr/FB rate (career 13.6%).

Meanwhile, Dahl is mashing this season with an OPS over 1K thanks to a 40% hard contact rate and a hell of a lot of BABIP help (.484). That is due to come down quite a bit, but we should also see some positive movement in the power upside.